I wasn't complicating things.
It may not be complicated for you, but I'm not so sure about @klattermusen since he said:
I think the stock gets assigned to me if the stock price is between 11 and 10 by op-ex on Nov 25. I did not know that. Now I do.
So, I don't think what's good for the goose is good for the gander in this case. If @klattermusen tries to get too fancy with it he's likely to dig himself a deeper hole IMHO.
And, obviously, I agree with you completely here:
Implied vol. is not the same as real vol. Implied vol. can be through the roof but it's the realized volatility that determines everything.
That's why my suggestion (specifically to @klattermusen) is don't touch it and LET IT RIDE. It might just make money at expiration and if it loses that's the price paid for a mistake. But, trying to patch it over now is probably throwing good money after bad.
