I must stop a losing streak!

california said:
numbers and theories out there.

I am 100% discretionary trader, I trade primarily futures
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That's the problem with 100% discretionary trading, the trader has absolutely no way of knowing if his system has any trading edge to begin with.

And then the first major drawdown hit him sooner or later, leaving him extremely confused and unable to decide what to do next.

Sorry but hat's not the way trading works.

First the trader needs to have clearly defined trading rules that will allow him to backtest his system.

And then, when he is 100% sure that his system is profitable and does not generate huge drawdowns in the process, he can pull the trigger and trade with absolute serenity.

Until then, the trader is only kidding himself.
 
running_bare said:
LOL... Reality check time

Surprising so many here have missed it among all the chit chat...


1/ Looking at your portfolio, it should be obvious what one of the issues is:
many are highly correlated risk assets (ES, YM, NQ, CL..)

It's clear you do well when SP500 & risk assets go up, do poorly when risk assets are sold off.

Pointless having so many of, essentially, the same bet (ES, YM, NQ..) in the portfolio.
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I used to daytrade the ES and swing/overnite trade YM and NQ but you are right, these mostly move in same direction. I must re-visit this.

2/ You say you are a trend follower...yet ES, YM , NQ were NOT in strong trends (at least short term daily trend) at the time you suffered losses.
ES/YM/NQ were all in "correction" in January as risk assets sold off - not surprising you did not do well overall

3/ If you want to be a successful macro trader, you need to educate yourself regarding rick assets, economics, QE, central bank monetary policy, monitor currencies etc...

Blindingly obvious you are a bull market trader who only thrives in only 1 type of market condition.
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california said:
Interestingly majority of my losing trades occur between 6:30-9:00 AM PST, basically 90 minutes into trading.
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50% of a daily range is made in the first 90 minutes. How are you doing in the first 20 minutes? How are doing in the first 90 minutes minus the first 20 minutes? It would be interesting to know how you did so far today, as today is a day that one can know if someone masters price, as it is easy for a master and could be confusing for the less experts.
 
california said:
Interestingly majority of my losing trades occur between 6:30-9:00 AM PST, basically 90 minutes into trading.
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I did a lot of analysis of my trades, and found that trades entered in the first 30 mins had a very poor performance.

So I initialted a rule, no trades in this period. None.

I just sit, watch and prepare for the trading day.

Helped my % win & P&L quite a bit.

"Do more of what works" somebody said.
 
on the contrary, those are the gold time of professionals. since I normally traded those time segment. if I missed, then I do it late afternoon.

9:00AM is NG/CL GOLD trading time. NG yesterady dropped big, that is teh best time for me. 2: 00PM~2:30PM another gold time

8:30AM is report/economic indicator time, very critical moments.

markets at those time are fast, volatile. if you want to make money, just grabed those moments, just like commercials said, after breakfast,you headed toward golf court, enjoy the sun and fun,while your money is safely in the bank.

work smart. foolish fisherman try to fish when fish are full or not at the feeding time.

some small rain, cloudy weather, is the best time to go fishing.
while sunny day, everyone heads toward park, they play!



xelite777 said:
That's because the first 30 minutes of trading action is driven mostly by amateurs and market makers games.
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trader198 said:
on the contrary, those are the gold time of professionals.
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That's what I said, the sharks (err... I mean the market markets) and the smart money use that period to transfer money from the amateurs to their own (deep) pockets.
 
All depends on the markets you trade, and your trading style.

Every trader is different, and certain periods of the trading day will be better suited to a trader's style.

The important thing is to establish what these periods are, and trade accordingly.

trader198 said:
on the contrary, those are the gold time of professionals. since I normally traded those time segment. if I missed, then I do it late afternoon.

9:00AM is NG/CL GOLD trading time. NG yesterady dropped big, that is teh best time for me. 2: 00PM~2:30PM another gold time

8:30AM is report/economic indicator time, very critical moments.

markets at those time are fast, volatile. if you want to make money, just grabed those moments, just like commercials said, after breakfast,you headed toward golf court, enjoy the sun and fun,while your money is safely in the bank.

work smart. foolish fisherman try to fish when fish are full or not at the feeding time.

some small rain, cloudy weather, is the best time to go fishing.
while sunny day, everyone heads toward park, they play!
More...
 
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