I must stop a losing streak!

Overall a good day, +$1,000 on 24 NQ contracts.

I am trading in 2 contract lots, just 2 contracts. I do add to add to my winning positions (some call it pyramiding) if pullpuback is perceived weak and not a reversal.
Since I am only trading in 2 contract lots, I had total of 12 trades, 11 out of 12 were winning trades.
Looking at average buy and average sold column objective remains to capture large profit amount.
-Discipline was good, stayed on the right side of the market, entered early after the open once pullback was in place from today's Globex high of the session.
-Problem I noticed - as I kept adding to the longs and was up to 8 contracts (entire position) I became timid, a bit nervous, as result closed 2 for 1 tick and another 2 for break-even and took a lose on 2 more contracts...while keeping 2 contracts in place. This occurred around 11:00-11:15/20 AM PST pullback in NQ. Needless to say...market went higher and I rode the remaining contracts to 3625 and then shorting the next bar at 3621.5 for 1 point...this was done to test the strength of the pullback, to see if it'll make it to the EMA level or go lower...and it did go lower after I was out of my shorts.
As continued discipline improvement I stopped trading for day at 12:30 PM PST, exercise restrain and stay away from impulse trades.
As I was watching my NQ positions...I did see great setups forming in YM and ES but stayed away and focused on my current position.

ickd3d.jpg
 
Not a good day, -1,800 down.
very choppy, range bound, bad entries and exits.
Contracts traded:
ES 16
NQ 36
YM 12 (holding 1 short overnight)
 
Week 6, ending 2/14/14 (-1,227), down again.

2uh96hy.jpg

Contracts traded:
YM 29
ES 45
NQ 105
YTD -$13,440

But overall better discipline and trading, but still getting caught in choppy setups
 
OP,

Putting entry and exit tactics aside, I'd like to ask a few questions about risk. I don't expect you know all these but it will give you something to think about.

What rules do you have as far as percentage risked per trade and why?

Do you know your winrate?

Do you know what percentage of a Draw down you can likely expect each year ?

Do you have a Worst Case draw down expectation for a year where your method does poorly?

Do you have an Idea of your return on risk? Meaning if you know that you will likely have a 10% DD in any given year...what kind of reward can you likely expect in any given year?

Knowing the answers to these questions for a yearly basis, a monthly basis, weekly, or daily will help your discipline and confidence in your method. If you don't know these answers you should find out.

If you can't handle your current Drawdowns then obviously you need to make your risk per trade less. You need to know the likelyhood of losing 10 or 20 trades in a row and be able to pull the trigger when the next trade comes while you are in a drawdown. Knowing your risk and likely method performance can improve your discipline greatly.

If you don't know your risks or you don't know your method intimately then the fear of the unknown will take over. You need to know intimately the markets that you operate in as well. Does your method do well in high volatility or chop? Breakout guy , or fader? Try to tie all the lose ends to give yourself confidence.

A complete plan is required.
 
This may sound very simplistic, but...

Find out what works and do more of it.

Find out what DOESN'T work, and avoid it.
 
LOL... Reality check time

Surprising so many here have missed it among all the chit chat...


1/ Looking at your portfolio, it should be obvious what one of the issues is:
many are highly correlated risk assets (ES, YM, NQ, CL..)

It's clear you do well when SP500 & risk assets go up, do poorly when risk assets are sold off.

Pointless having so many of, essentially, the same bet (ES, YM, NQ..) in the portfolio.

2/ You say you are a trend follower...yet ES, YM , NQ were NOT in strong trends (at least short term daily trend) at the time you suffered losses.
ES/YM/NQ were all in "correction" in January as risk assets sold off - not surprising you did not do well overall

3/ If you want to be a successful macro trader, you need to educate yourself regarding rick assets, economics, QE, central bank monetary policy, monitor currencies etc...

Blindingly obvious you are a bull market trader who only thrives in only 1 type of market condition.
 
Zr1Trader said:
OP,

Putting entry and exit tactics aside, I'd like to ask a few questions about risk. I don't expect you know all these but it will give you something to think about.

What rules do you have as far as percentage risked per trade and why?

Do you know your winrate?

Do you know what percentage of a Draw down you can likely expect each year ?

Do you have a Worst Case draw down expectation for a year where your method does poorly?

Do you have an Idea of your return on risk? Meaning if you know that you will likely have a 10% DD in any given year...what kind of reward can you likely expect in any given year?

Knowing the answers to these questions for a yearly basis, a monthly basis, weekly, or daily will help your discipline and confidence in your method. If you don't know these answers you should find out.

If you can't handle your current Drawdowns then obviously you need to make your risk per trade less. You need to know the likelyhood of losing 10 or 20 trades in a row and be able to pull the trigger when the next trade comes while you are in a drawdown. Knowing your risk and likely method performance can improve your discipline greatly.

If you don't know your risks or you don't know your method intimately then the fear of the unknown will take over. You need to know intimately the markets that you operate in as well. Does your method do well in high volatility or chop? Breakout guy , or fader? Try to tie all the lose ends to give yourself confidence.

A complete plan is required.
More...
I appreciate you taking the time to respond, I will post answers but in short here is a snapshot.
-my win rate is 65%. To test it, for a period of time I traded in sample sizes such as 10 trades per day. For every point I risk, I expect to make at least 3 points, I could say it's 3:1 ratio but as stated I do add to my winning positions, hence pyramiding - needless to say this strategy magnifies loses if market moves in oposit direction.
-Failure to recognize reversing or trading range market causes many stop outs unless change from swing to scalp mode which I do not like.
 
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