I must stop a losing streak!

[california]

What's gone is gone. You've taken some good steps by going SIM and identifying what is not working with your system. You said it yourself that your system is trend based and my guess is on the long side. You don't have to be in the market everyday to make money, patience is key.

IMO, don't try to fight your weaknesses. If you are not good at mean reversion trading then don't try to be, at least in live account, until you come up with a system that allows you to trade it profitably in SIM for months.

Mkts have a funny way of set

Thanks I am not a reversion to mean trader, just directional. For instance today's you could've shorted around 7 AM PST and add to your shorts throughout day as trend was clearly down.....but I did not ...

 

[Topsurfi]

first of all I would trade only 1 or 2 different instruments.
In an orchestra, you would also not try to play everything.

Then, you have to accept, that even with a setup that is working longterm, you will have losing streeks in certain market conditions. The biggest mistake is, to adopt the setup to the environments found in the losing streek. Then market will return back to normal and you will lose again.
You can only judge wether your system works with intense backtesting.

Finally, I would never trade with clients money if you are not 100% sure what you are doing. It puts even more pressure on you and makes your decisions worse.

 

[wrbtrader]

Thanks I am not a reversion to mean trader, just directional. For instance today's you could've shorted around 7 AM PST and add to your shorts throughout day as trend was clearly down.....but I did not ...

I'm not sure if you're intentionally being vague or don't realize you're being vague because you don't go into any specific details about any trades except to show summaries, saying you're a directional trader and so on. I will also assume that you "were" a profitable trader while trading the money of others before hitting this drawdown period as a discretionary trader.

Why did you start this journal ?

I mean, you asking for help because if you want help...you're going to need to talk about specific trades and your trading plan involving those trades.

Anyways, based upon a few things you've already said, it seems like you have a serious discipline problem along with having the inability to follow whatever trading plan you have for whatever reasons.

Be glad you've stop trading your clients money until you fix this problem because anyone that's a directional trader having problems trading these strong directional trends the past few weeks needs to sit down an re-evaluate things as you noted.

Your biggest losses is January were in the Emini futures. I'm curious about your performance on January 13th Mon, January 14th Tues, January 15th Weds, January 23rd Thurs, January 24th Fri, January 29th Wednesday in the Emini futures because those particular trading days are very strong directional (as in trending).

Last of all, you trade a lot of different types of markets, were you consistently profitable in the past doing such ? If so, how were those consistent profits compare to your poor performance in January 2014.

 

[california]

first of all I would trade only 1 or 2 different instruments.
In an orchestra, you would also not try to play everything.

Then, you have to accept, that even with a setup that is working longterm, you will have losing streeks in certain market conditions. The biggest mistake is, to adopt the setup to the environments found in the losing streek. Then market will return back to normal and you will lose again.
You can only judge wether your system works with intense backtesting.

Finally, I would never trade with clients money if you are not 100% sure what you are doing. It puts even more pressure on you and makes your decisions worse.

Agree, hence I stopped trading everything except for E-Mini futures, YM, ES, NQ

again, I agree, hence on Jan 20th I suspended all trading in client accounts, and have not traded in client accounts so far in Feb.

 

[wiesman02]

Why were u down heavily yesterday ? If you are a trend trader you shouldn't have been buying, am I right ? Perhaps u need a more clearly defined set of rules

 

[california]

I'm not sure if you're intentionally being vague or don't realize you're being vague because you don't go into any specific details about any trades except to show summaries, saying you're a directional trader and so on.

I certainly did intend in being vague or elusive, that's not my intention.

I will also assume that you "were" a profitable trader while trading the money of others before hitting this drawdown period as a discretionary trader.

I was profitable, I've had draw downs in the past but never so fast so much, which forced to start this journal to analyze things. I keep an internal journal but wanted to start a public, I don't mind constructive criticism.

Why did you start this journal ?

As Mark Douglas says you must take the trade if setup is correct without your past losses holding you back which I agree, you have to have "traders short term memory" but I think this is a good time for me to take a breather, trade small, scrutinize setups.

I mean, you asking for help because if you want help...you're going to need to talk about specific trades and your trading plan involving those trades.

Anyways, based upon a few things you've already said, it seems like you have a serious discipline problem along with having the inability to follow whatever trading plan you have for whatever reasons.

Be glad you've stop trading your clients money until you fix this problem because anyone that's a directional trader having problems trading these strong directional trends the past few weeks needs to sit down an re-evaluate things as you noted.

Yes, discipline deteriorated, but as you can see I do not HUGE volume of contracts, still small portion of the portfolio, needless to say with leverage in futures it can go either way...way up...or way down.

Your biggest losses is January were in the Emini futures. I'm curious about your performance on January 13th Mon, January 14th Tues, January 15th Weds, January 23rd Thurs, January 24th Fri, January 29th Wednesday in the Emini futures because those particular trading days are very strong directional (as in trending).

Last of all, you trade a lot of different types of markets, were you consistently profitable in the past doing such ? If so, how were those consistent profits compare to your poor performance in January 2014.

I appreciate you taking time to narrow those days down, what ended happening I was on the wrong side of the market, had I known why...would defenately shared, same thin happened on Feb 3rd, I was on the wrong side of the martket. Most were caused by stop out, staying in a losing trade too long. I try very hard not to scalp, I am more of day swing trader but range expands obvisouly ATR gets wider...perhaps hit my stops more often.

 

[california]

Why were u down heavily yesterday ? If you are a trend trader you shouldn't have been buying, am I right ? Perhaps u need a more clearly defined set of rules

You are correct, I should've been short the market in the first hour or so...but I failed simply put, I kept betting on reversal instead of shortly each small rally and pop...but I did not. Anyway, I am not making excuses or justify my action...just doing analysis.

 

[Scataphagos]

I've been reading some journals for years, many beneficial some entertaining. I wanted to start this thread as way for me to stay active with my trade journal and put my numbers and theories out there.

I am 100% discretionary trader, I trade primarily futures, I am no CTA but am managing couple client accounts. 2012 was a break-even year but 2013 was a good year, I made money for myself and my clients.
However, I had a bad start for the year 2014. I've lost money consistently and almost systemically from week of January 2014. I am coping and working on reversing things, as such continued losses very big and unusual for my portfolio size and trading.

I was down over $11K for January and today I lost another $2,600

Losing streaks are usually caused by "incorrect bias". (I know, lots of players say, "I don't have a bias, I just trade"..... which is dumb. If you're buying it's because your bias is for a bounce of some magnitude. If you're selling, your bias is for decline of some magnitude.)

Sounds like you "traded around a long bias" in 2013, which was correct. In 2014, long-side bias has so far been incorrect.

You ALWAYS need to have the correct bias... and trade around it. (Doesn't mean you can't/shouldn't fade your bias short term... after all, there are "counters".)

 

[volente_00]

What was your return on this account in 2013 ?


On your losses for 2014, have they been from being long in a downtrending market ?



Or from getting chopped up being short during the increase in volatility ?

 

[wrbtrader]

...Yes, discipline deteriorated, but as you can see I do not HUGE volume of contracts, still small portion of the portfolio, needless to say with leverage in futures it can go either way...way up...or way down.

I appreciate you taking time to narrow those days down, what ended happening I was on the wrong side of the market, had I known why...would defenately shared, same thin happened on Feb 3rd, I was on the wrong side of the martket. Most were caused by stop out, staying in a losing trade too long. I try very hard not to scalp, I am more of day swing trader but range expands obvisouly ATR gets wider...perhaps hit my stops more often.

Here's are some questions and hopefully you can answer:

1) All of those trades that you were on the "wrong side of the market", were they valid trades via your trading plan ?

If you say they were valid trade signals while you're a directional trend trader, that would imply there's something wrong with your trade method whenever volatility shows up.

2) At what point did you realized you were on the wrong side of the market on those trend days I mentioned earlier ?

I ask this question is to see if you realized as it was happening or only after the fact when the trading day was completed. Therefore, if you don't have the ability to realize you're on the wrong side of the market on a high volatility trading day...

3) what backup plans do you have in place to deal with high volatility trend days and are you willing to stay on the sidelines (shut your computer down is a choice and most won't do it) on those high volatility trend days considering you have a serious discipline problem ?

4) Your broker statement shows multiple different types of markets. Thus, do you have positions open at the same time in multiple different markets or do you just trade a different market each trading day ?

Most failed trend traders have the following problems:

A) They are not able to recognize a range day as it is occurring in real-time.

B) They are not willing to admit in real-time that their analysis is wrong and will fight the market to the bitter end via continuing to trade against an obvious trend...essentially they've lost their discipline and loss of perspective.

C) High volatility trend days fools them into thinking that there will be a burn-out (contraction in volatility) and therefore they continue trading against the trend because they think a reversal is pending during any type of price action exhaustion (temporary loss of volatility or contraction in the volatility)...essentially they start behaving like a "trend reversal" trader instead of like a "trend directional" trader.

Trend Reversal versus Trend Directional

D) They are not able to detail in writing their trading plan. Simply, they keep it all up in their head...allowing the discipline problems to grow and eventually take them out of the game.

With all that said, you know what the problems (discipline) are and how to solve it. If not, stay on the sidelines and wait until the volatility is gone so that you can trade in price actions suitable for your trade method because you're not doing good in high volatility market conditions or increasing volatility market conditions unless your discipline problems is more related to personal issues in your life that have started to sabotage your trading (the latter happens more often than not).