there is no holy grail
if there were, all trading would stop, since no body is going to take the other side of the transaction, knowing that probability is 100%,
so knowing they are going to lose no one will take the other side
Wow, very insightful post. You must already know The Obvious, or are very close to figuring it out!
At any rate, no one wants to lose, but some times it is more comfortable than having faith and sticking around for the happy ending!