I Just Got Long

Quote from PohPoh:


Still can't get a nice house in a nice neighbourhood in the city for under 700K...
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This is happening everywhere - crap is selling for something resembling "reasonable" prices but anything not crap is holding value fairly well. For this to change in the short turn will, I'm thinking, require a large uptick in long term rates. For that to happen, the long end of the Treasury market needs to implode.

The only alternative I can see is a long - very long - drawn out Japan-style utter stagnation that kills bulls with bills and bears without patience.
 
Another fractal worth noting RC is that while Tokyo prices broke as much as 90% they STILL remained the worlds most expensive after imploding. Needless to say the late 80's Tokyo bubble made ours look sick and puny by comparison.

"Prices were highest in Tokyo's Ginza district in 1989, with choice properties fetching over 100 million yen ($1 million US dollars) per square meter ($93,000 per square foot)." $500 a square foot for a condo in Santa Monica looks pretty cheap after reading that, eh? :)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_asset_price_bubble

Quote from Random.Capital:

This is happening everywhere - crap is selling for something resembling "reasonable" prices but anything not crap is holding value fairly well. For this to change in the short turn will, I'm thinking, require a large uptick in long term rates. For that to happen, the long end of the Treasury market needs to implode.

The only alternative I can see is a long - very long - drawn out Japan-style utter stagnation that kills bulls with bills and bears without patience.
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Quote from jsv416:

Please explain your reasoning for being short energy...
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There are few reasons why I am short energy and LONG financials. (works very well for last two days BTW)

Sectors tend to bottom out one by one and financials are just the most hated so I assume they are not far from the bottom (if we haven't seen one already)
On the other hand energy (not alternative energy) complex has held very well although oil continues to go down and I don't think we've sen the bottom in oil yet.
So IF oil will go further south and bad economic news will continue surfacing media the energy sector should be the one to short till the end of march...
 
Quote from Lucrum:

ES approaching a former swing low that may be a resistance/supply price area.
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Rather than get caught up in the micro and risk losing my longs-I almost sold calls against them yesterday- I'll just let it ride. The profit is burning a hole in my pocket. That usually means there's more coming. :)
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

... The profit is burning a hole in my pocket. That usually means there's more coming. :)
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Been there done that.
:mad:


Not trying to get anyone to do anything necesarily, just making an observation.

GL with that long Pabst.
 
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