I Just Got Long

I expect the low is in for the year. That's not to say we don't go into a depression later next year......

I'd like to sell OTM calls against my long futs but premo is quite low. Maybe sell 800's in Jun but I'll wait a few days...
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

I expect the low is in for the year. That's not to say we don't go into a depression later next year......

I'd like to sell OTM calls against my long futs but premo is quite low. Maybe sell 800's in Jun but I'll wait a few days...
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Disagree PP...
I think we need one more spike lower...
To REALLY get the weak long hands out...
Not to 5k or 4k...but looking at 6100 as a target, purely technical..

Should see mass exodus out of bonds/gold into the short covering equity rally of a lifetime...
 
Quote from sirgiyan:

I agree that we might have seen bottom in financials (should be retested) but my play for next couple of weeks is shorting energy complex which (I think) will lead the next (last?) leg down soon
Good luck!
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Please explain your reasoning for being short energy...
 
Quote from PohPoh:

Disagree PP...
I think we need one more spike lower...
To REALLY get the weak long hands out...
Not to 5k or 4k...but looking at 6100 as a target, purely technical..

Should see mass exodus out of bonds/gold into the short covering equity rally of a lifetime...
More...


Anything can happen. And of course I'm cognizant that the dominant fractal has been one day to one week rallies quickly evaporating into subsequent new lows-I shorted the rally on Feb 26. I'm also VERY bearish on the economy so I'm not anticipating help from the data going forward. In fact I'm not looking for massive upside-just a low. Tech is hanging tough and this bears (pun) repeating-only a little over half the S&P500 traded through their Nov lows. I also saw that a house in Silverlake sold at it's 1.85m offer just days after being on the market. Not exactly 1931 type activity. At least yet......
 
Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

Anything can happen. And of course I'm cognizant that the dominant fractal has been one day to one week rallies quickly evaporating into subsequent new lows-I shorted the rally on Feb 26. I'm also VERY bearish on the economy so I'm not anticipating help from the data going forward. In fact I'm not looking for massive upside-just a low. Tech is hanging tough and this bears (pun) repeating-only a little over half the S&P500 traded through their Nov lows. I also saw a house in Silverlake that was listed last week for 1.85mil sold just days after being on the market. Not exactly 1931 type activity. Yet at least......
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Yup...
am cautiously semi bullish with some H/J calendars (which are down)...
just wondering if I'm right on the timing here...
I wonder too to what extent the bad data has been factored into the market...

LA is a fucking anomaly...why the hell aren't prices falling...?????schools suck, government's broke, one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation....
Can you explain this? It can't all be the weather....
 
This is my real estate view.

In the 90's L.A. prices broke 42%. New York barely broke half that.

In this plunge Miami is the L.A. fractal of the 90's but L.A. is the New York fractal. Hence you guys will suffer nothing more than the token break you've now seen. It's not just weather but also demographics. Look how many Asians in L.A. Those guys by themselves are supporting values in the SGV. Think about it:White L.A. is now pretty much pigeonholed between the 10 and the 101 from DT to the ocean. A lotta demand for a pretty small footprint.....

Think of the bad fundamentals on the 1994 low. Northridge quake. King Riots. Crips vs. Bloods. Even O.J. That low will NEVER break just like 1970's NYC was a hell hole that traded straight up since....



Quote from PohPoh:

Yup...
am cautiously semi bullish with some H/J calendars (which are down)...
just wondering if I'm right on the timing here...
I wonder too to what extent the bad data has been factored into the market...

LA is a fucking anomaly...why the hell aren't prices falling...?????schools suck, government's broke, one of the highest unemployment rates in the nation....
Can you explain this? It can't all be the weather....
More...
 
I dunno...I know that many parts of SOCAL have been hammered, in terms of real estate value...San Bernardino County for one...also many parts of San Diego...
But for fuck's sake...still selling condos in the Valley for 500K...
Still can't get a nice house in a nice neighbourhood in the city for under 700K...
With all the economic problems, it seems that this is unsustainable...I'm no real estate expert, but I find it hard to correlate 90's LA-NY, versus 2010's Miami-LA...
Again, I have zero experience in the RE market...
as you well know :)

Quote from Pa(b)st Prime:

This is my real estate view.

In the 90's L.A. prices broke 42%. New York barely broke half that.

In this plunge Miami is the L.A. fractal of the 90's but L.A. is the New York fractal. Hence you guys will suffer nothing more than the token break you've now seen. It's not just weather but also demographics. Look how many Asians in L.A. Those guys by themselves are supporting values in the SGV. Think about it:White L.A. is now pretty much pigeonholed between the 10 and the 101 from DT to the ocean. A lotta demand for a pretty small footprint.....

Think of the bad fundamentals on the 1994 low. Northridge quake. King Riots. Crips vs. Bloods. Even O.J. That low will NEVER break just like 1970's NYC was a hell hole that traded straight up since....
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All I can opine is this. If the IE, OC and Vegas imploding along with stocks down half can't get Sherman Oaks to barely even downtick then I'm not sure what the catalyst going forward will be for a plunge.

It's the same rationale I had for being long gold-although I covered my longs at 988 and am now flat. If crude breaking $110 a barrel from it's highs and the dollar making multi year highs couldn't break gold than what can? Relative unexpected strength-divergence-is not a fade but a trend extension.


Quote from PohPoh:

I dunno...I know that many parts of SOCAL have been hammered, in terms of real estate value...San Bernardino County for one...also many parts of San Diego...
But for fuck's sake...still selling condos in the Valley for 500K...
Still can't get a nice house in a nice neighbourhood in the city for under 700K...
With all the economic problems, it seems that this is unsustainable...I'm no real estate expert, but I find it hard to correlate 90's LA-NY, versus 2010's Miami-LA...
Again, I have zero experience in the RE market...
as you well know :)
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