I Just Got Long

Quote from drukes1234:

I'm at an age where I can tuck this away for 30 years and see the enormous increase that came from this investment.
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Isn't that the same pitch that Wall St. has been throwing at us for the last 30 years?

How much has been lost by all the people doing just that over the last dozen years?
 
FTR, Pabst Prime and drukes1234, the long-term investor in me says ... "this is the time that a lot of future millionaires are going to be made". When everyone was shitting bricks, everybody had their hand-out looking for the government dole and nobody was looking at what was coming around the corner.

If I had 10k to throw-away, I take a gamble on finding Longs that you can expect to increase their value by anywhere from 10 to 100 fold ... provided I had the know how for making long-term picks like that.

But I don't.

To do that you have to be lucky or you have to be smart ... and I have a funny feeling that most of those smart guys had an element of luck in their plans too. :D
 
I'm not concerned with small consistent wins-I am concerned with managing my risk. As you know I'm more a home run hitter with occasional strikeouts than a singles hitter bleeding my account dry off too many trades. you get paid from run production not batting average.

And no I don't even think if longs work from here that it'll be a home run. I see a VERY muted rally. For all I know it already came on the 20pt pop off Fridays lows. That might have been it! My conviction and size here are VERY limited. In summary there's a better chance that bad longs will be life changing for the worse than good longs will be life changing for the better. It's just a trade. One of hundreds I'll make this year.....


Quote from MandelbrotSet:

I'm glad you noticed (even if you didn't comment on it) that I ended my comment with "from a professional".

Taking the opposite side of heavily over sold (during Bear markets) or over bought (during Bull markets) is very tempting to do, and good money can be made if it's just a small percentage of your capital, you manage your risk, and you're really just treating the trade as a one-off and trying to hit a homer.

But it isn't such a great idea when you are trying to get consistent wins. And that's what the pros do, win consistently with small gains by taking high prob bets (ie, with the trend).

Take a look at the financial news ... the end is nowhere near in sight.
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