I Just Got Long

Quote from lindq:

I agree with just sitting back and being a witness to this and keeping your hands off the trigger until at least a few up days.

It reminds me somewhat of the crash in 2000-2001. Even getting short is difficult because of lack of entry points, and the risk of a quick backlash.

Cash is king. Patience is a virtue.

For anyone willing to take the plunge, a few well-selected short puts may be in order on crushed blue chips. There are some nice premiums to be had looking a year out. I would take the bet that a year from now we are at least even or better.
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Completely agree about inactivity.

What I can't figure out is the explanation why is it so difficult to go with the trend on the way down? I know the market moves differently, that bottoms are often 'V' shaped, that fear is more contagious than greed and euphoria, but shouldn't there be any objective way to profit by swing-trading (I am not interested in day-trading).

One possible explanation I can find, is that people tend to panic much faster which means that they are more apt to be trend-followers on the downside, than they are on the upside. This part of human nature means that technical traders have much more competition when shorting in a bear market.

Or may be I am just rationalizing my inability to trade in this market, as I am sure someone who made a ton of money will be kind to point out :cool:
 
Quote from Landis82:

ET Contrarian Indicator Alert!

669 ES equals .618 of first leg down
from 779.50 to 688.75

That is the first target.
635 is a 1:1 measured-move.
:eek:
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From Page 7 of the thread.
Bingo!
:cool:
 
Great call? The market was up a whole point. Thats a great call. Guess performance is measured a little differently in the forex chat boards.

Quote from Ivanovich:

Great call, Pabst. Have a good weekend and let's hope it rides on.
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Quote from Daal:

You dont get it, at this point sentiment IS 'the fundamentals'. If peoples mood dont turn the 'equilibrium' price is lower, if it does its higher
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In a clash between fundamentals and sentiment, I have never seen sentiment win out over the long-term.
 
Quote from Daal:

This market is absurdly oversold. Its almost as bad as back in Oct according to historical statistics
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Which stats?

I don't see it as anywhere near as oversold as in Oct. Not even close. It is not even as oversold as March or Jan 2008.

Also, the fact that we are now *much lower* than the October 08 lows shows how useful oversold readings are for medium-term price movements. I.e. not at all useful. Oversold is purely a short-term measure, and it's extremely easy to get wrong.
 
Quote from Port1385:

Great call? The market was up a whole point. Thats a great call. Guess performance is measured a little differently in the forex chat boards.
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Quote from Port1385:

Looks like the market is tanking now. Are you sure you want to get long?
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So up a point was nothing but when $SPX was down a point that's "tanking"?
Are you as big a friggin' tool as you appear to be?

My stop is 771.50.

If I'm stopped do you know what the net result of Friday and today will be for moi? I'll STILL be up a thousand bucks. (that's why my stop is 71.50)
 
Quote from bronks:

Could a case be made for "casual capitulation"?

With all the talking heads calling for a flush, I'm not so sure that we're already down the bowl in more moderate but consistent bleed type of way. With everyone looking for the buy after the flush, the sellers can just keep applying the pressure and chop the bottom fishers and bear rally enthusiasts (including me) off at the knees.

When you least expect it, expect it. Looney Tunes.


EDIT: This is smelling of a weekend news release that just slaughters any short holders... not that I wouldn't welcome it :D
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Well that weekend news bomb sure came through, didn't it... dumbass.
 
buy buy buy

this looks like one of those 20% rally weeks

all this doom and gloom about deep recession and unemployment is a joke. The economy is fundamentally strong.
 
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