I Just Got Long

bronks · Mar 6, 2009

Could a case be made for "casual capitulation"?

With all the talking heads calling for a flush, I'm not so sure that we're already down the bowl in more moderate but consistent bleed type of way. With everyone looking for the buy after the flush, the sellers can just keep applying the pressure and chop the bottom fishers and bear rally enthusiasts (including me) off at the knees.

When you least expect it, expect it. Looney Tunes.

EDIT: This is smelling of a weekend news release that just slaughters any short holders... not that I wouldn't welcome it

1flyfisher · Mar 6, 2009

The retail investor usually cashes out at the bottom. There is much more pain to come and they will cash in their chips and fold. There is much more selling to be squeezed out of this market.
We are seeing civil unrest. I read 50 thousand took to the streets in NYC(http://wcbstv.com/breakingnewsalerts/recession.budget.protest.2.951551.html). Protests are occurring in many countries.
We are in a GLOBAL Financial crisis which is unprecedented.
Much more pain to come.

Quote from Ivanovich:

Uh, I doubt that.

At this point, most people have turned off the tv, cashed out (if they were going to) or gave up on looking at their 401ks for another few years (or until this turns around). Only traders, fund managers, etc., are playing now. If the Dow drops another 1000 points, the average Joe who has little or nothing in the market is just going to go, "yeah, it sucks". No one is going to take to the streets.

Port1385 · Mar 6, 2009

I made a half point off that call. Playing the dips and thrusts of the bear can be very profitable. Some of those thrusts are 20+%, but you have to know how to play the game with trailing stops.

Quote from Ivanovich:

What are you talking about? YOU went long SSO two days ago!

sandygray66 · Mar 6, 2009

PP, I feel for you.

Your stop was -8 pts, and the market went -9.25 and is making a big rebound up into the close.

IluvVol · Mar 6, 2009

soon approaching 5000 posts there's not a whole lot time to actually analyze and trade.

At least it looks like right now you may actually end the week up on your 675 long ;-)

Quote from wavel:

Are you sure your not over trading Pa(b)st Prime?

Keep up the good work.

Ivanovich · Mar 6, 2009

It looks like it might have been a good call - just a bad break on the stop.

Daal · Mar 6, 2009

Quote from lindq:

This market is collapsing on FUNDAMENTALS, which is completely rational.

You dont get it, at this point sentiment IS 'the fundamentals'. If peoples mood dont turn the 'equilibrium' price is lower, if it does its higher

danp01851 · Mar 6, 2009

I went long at 666.50 in the futures thinking it would be really cool if the final low was 666. $SPX low today is 666.79, theory is holding so far!

Ivanovich · Mar 6, 2009

Quote from danp01851:

I went long at 666.50 in the futures thinking it would be really cool if the final low was 666. $SPX low today is 666.79, theory is holding so far!

How convenient you tell us about that now!

Surdo · Mar 6, 2009

Quote from danp01851:

I went long at 666.50 in the futures thinking it would be really cool if the final low was 666. $SPX low today is 666.79, theory is holding so far!

Impressive, next time try and post your entry within an hour of the tape... fool!