I just found the holy grail..still not profitable though

[intradaybill]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

Predict volatility, then you don't need to predict the markets.

Predicting volatility is equivalent to predicting the future. Volatility is created by all sorts of unpredictable events, like for example, some big company going bankrupt or a country defaulting on its dept. Volatility is also created in its normal mode by traders trying to swing prices around to make other traders quit and by regurarly released economic reports.

A trader should have a good plan, or method, for dealing with volatility. A trader cannot predict volatility. Save unprecedented events, a good way of dealing with volatility is based on making sure your exits lie outside of applicable ATR. This is so simple but few can understand how to make it work.

 

[jjj1000]

Well, let's just say that volatility is the "holy grail" (and I am not agreeing or disagreeing with that, but just for debate's sake); that still leaves you with nothing; to predict volatility is as difficult as predicting the dow and/or sp500. There are many ways in which you can trade volatility in the markets, so if you are good at that, you don't even need to use it to predict other markets, just bet on volatility itself.

In short: the only reliable way to make money in the markets remains the old and good magic eight ball

 

[AMT4SWA]

Exceptional R to R is the only thing that I would put in the category of a holy grail.

 

[jem]

Quote from AMT4SWA:

Exceptional R to R is the only thing that I would put in the category of a holy grail.

I agree...
no doji made a nice post though.

 

[AMT4SWA]

Quote from jem:

I agree...
no doji made a nice post though.

Right.....NoDoji always has pretty darn good posts!

 

[TraderZones]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

Okay work with me. You got a trading strategy, it works great in backtests, but then it stops working when forward testing. WHY?

Simple: the volatility changed.

WRONG

 

[schizo]

Quote from failed_trad3r:

Simple: the volatility changed.
Simply put, to have a successful trade plan you need to predict volatility. Without being able to predict volatility, you WILL fail. This is the single most important ingrediënt of trading. i might be overexagerating here but just want to say it's very important


Exhibit A:

Now what do we see here? Support and Resistance in volatile times. This is a different market condition compared to exhibit B

Exhibit B:

These is S&R in less volatile times.

WHATS THE DIFFERENCE?

You talk about S/R, but why the hell do you have so many lines drawn on your charts? Seriously, are they all S/R? I say you're a nutcase if you're able to glimpse even a halfass holygrail in all that mess!

Sorry if it came across as too personal. It really ain't.

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from NoDoji:

Seems to me you're simply describing the difference between a trend and a range/slightly trending range. Both are very tradeable. In a trend, you buy pullbacks that find a resurgence of buyers or sellers above or below previous S/R level (this usually occurs at or near the 20-bar moving average); in a range/slightly trending range, you use stochastics combined with the failure to break through previous S/R levels to sell overbought and buy oversold price zones. This tactic also positions you nicely in case price does eventually break out of the range.

I consider this an "edge", not a holy grail. It places the odds in your favor.

An example of a Holy Grail would be a charting service that allowed you to look ahead 5 or 10 bars before putting on a trade.

At first you sound correct Nodoji. But when we look closely at exhibit A and Exhibit B we can notice something. Both markets are trending! Sure, you can questionably say that Exhibit B is also ranging. But the same can be said of Exhibit A. In other words, we see two TRENDING markets, and the only difference is VOLATILITY. Don't believe me, look at monthly charts.

If S&R holds in Exhibit B, but get's sliced through in exhibit A, does that mean S&R don't work? NO! It means you need to incorporate a volatility gauge into your strategy.

The conclusion stands. Without a volatility gauge a strategy is in essence doomed to fail

 

[FredBloggs]

seeing as all those lines totally failed to provide any sort of support or resistance, do you think its wise to consider them as support or resistance?


further, if you have come to the correct conclusion that predicting price is not profitable, why should predicting vol be any different? same goes for any other prediction.


all that is happening here imo is that you are noticing a difference in behaviour in a trending and non trending times. that is no holy grail, its basics 101.


vol btw will increase in range bound markets. perhaps you may find utility in a vol indicator telling you which strategy to employ, or to stay out/in/find another market until you make another earth shattering discovery?bollinger bands give a very easy reference of vol, until your eyes start to notice with out the use of stabalisers. although the bands will converge in range bound markets, this doesnt contradict what i stated in the first part of the paragraph as there are different ways of looking at vol - relative or absolute.

all the best

 

[failed_trad3r]

Quote from FredBloggs:


all that is happening here imo is that you are noticing a difference in behaviour in a trending and non trending times. that is no holy grail, its basics 101.

we are in uptrend. both markets are trending. get it.