I don't think the name of the trading instrument is as important so much as what class of movement it has. Some traders make money using volatile stocks (jet skis). Some make money using slow gentle rolling stocks (ocean tankers). I like the ocean tankers because political news and economic policy changes doesn't swamp the boat so easily.
I just dont get it !!!!
- Thread starter cashclay
- Start date
I don't think the name of the trading instrument is as important so much as what class of movement it has. Some traders make money using volatile stocks (jet skis). Some make money using slow gentle rolling stocks (ocean tankers). I like the ocean tankers because political news and economic policy changes doesn't swamp the boat so easily.
The examples I gave were real (including the Cashews joke)...I just didn't go into specific details.
I have access to many different markets (forex, stocks, futures, commodities) and its amazing how many times the same price action (I don't mean to the exact tick) are the same but the market context is different. Thus, the same chart is Short for a particular market and the same chart is a Long for another market due to the markets having different market context.
In other words, its impossible to equate problems in China to Greece and problems in Greece to Wheat and problems in Wheat to Emini ES futures. They have a different market context. Thus, you can't trade the same chart the exact same way while ignoring the market context.
Thus, we as traders must know what we are trading. Heck, if I give you a chart with no name and you decide you want to trade it...you can't trade it until I tell you what it is.
Then after I tell you what it is...I'm 100% sure you will think about that trading instrument via its name and then make a decision if you still want to trade it and if you decide you still want to trade it...the name itself will cause you to do further research. A research that may change your view of that same price action...you may change from Bearish to Bullish or from Bullish to Bearish for the exact same price action.
Its the name that changes your analysis.
Note: I'm not comparing Emini ES futures to Emini YM futures...high probability the market context will be the same. Just the same, I'm not comparing Brent Oil futures to WTI Crude Oil futures...most likely the market context will be the same. Thus, the same price action chart of BRN futures will have the same TA analysis of the price action chart of CL futures due to the market context is the same.
In contrast, I'm comparing for example Wheat futures to Chinese stock with the exact same price action chart at the exact same time...you will trade them differently. Thus, your TA will be different. Therefore, the name of the trading instrument is crucially important.
Market Context
I have access to many different markets (forex, stocks, futures, commodities) and its amazing how many times the same price action (I don't mean to the exact tick) are the same but the market context is different. Thus, the same chart is Short for a particular market and the same chart is a Long for another market due to the markets having different market context.
In other words, its impossible to equate problems in China to Greece and problems in Greece to Wheat and problems in Wheat to Emini ES futures. They have a different market context. Thus, you can't trade the same chart the exact same way while ignoring the market context.
Thus, we as traders must know what we are trading. Heck, if I give you a chart with no name and you decide you want to trade it...you can't trade it until I tell you what it is.
Then after I tell you what it is...I'm 100% sure you will think about that trading instrument via its name and then make a decision if you still want to trade it and if you decide you still want to trade it...the name itself will cause you to do further research. A research that may change your view of that same price action...you may change from Bearish to Bullish or from Bullish to Bearish for the exact same price action.
Its the name that changes your analysis.
Note: I'm not comparing Emini ES futures to Emini YM futures...high probability the market context will be the same. Just the same, I'm not comparing Brent Oil futures to WTI Crude Oil futures...most likely the market context will be the same. Thus, the same price action chart of BRN futures will have the same TA analysis of the price action chart of CL futures due to the market context is the same.
In contrast, I'm comparing for example Wheat futures to Chinese stock with the exact same price action chart at the exact same time...you will trade them differently. Thus, your TA will be different. Therefore, the name of the trading instrument is crucially important.
Market Context
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A Fixed Volume Chart is one in which each bar uses a fixed volume, in this way it is somewhat similar to Renko bars.
Here is the past data of another instrument, displayed using three different charting styles. Anyone have any ideas?
Bar:
Fixed Volume:
Point and Figure:
I used the offset function in my charting program to rewind the chart. This means that the scale can change in the final chart, be aware.
The entire premise of relying on charts to make decisions is flawed at its core. Understanding this is the first step to understanding how markets really work. The OP will either discover this or continue to lose win win lose lose lose lose win lose lose lose win -- when making decisions from the chart noise.
Those charts are showing the full day, and the trading day is at an end. Based on the times, this looks like some kind of instrument that gets active at night. In prior days, the prices dropped, so my guess is they are short positions being closed out like clockwork. If history repeats itself, assuming that the last bars aren't the last trades of the day, then the price action probably dropped. But without knowing if there was still time left on the clock, it's really hard to say. I wouldn't be holding anything during that time personally unless I saw an established direction...then I'd play the direction, looking for entry points. A more realistic "quiz" would be to give us candles in the middle of the day with the associated volume....(and of course, in absence of serious news events).
No it's not. You just have to know how to do it. But few do.
I don't think it (charts traded) in an objective/consistent manner with a set of entry rules can create enough of an edge to win consistently--- if it could --let's see the price action folks who claim great results program the strategy( they can not) OR why doesn't Wizetrade type software work??
-- however, although I have never seen it, it may be possible for some people to be successful using intuition and subjective decision making based on "feel" and "experience". I am open to that. but not interested in it because it is not replicatable ---
peace
Nice analysis, I'm in Russia, and the instrument is traded in the US.
Another good call:
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Fun. It looks like the purple candles correspond to high volume events. Wish the blue candles where white or red. Without giving too much away, you can figure out quite a bit based on what sequence of colors there are, and you're not providing colors at all, so I'll pretend I'm color blind.
Based on volume alone, that looks like a range bound "stock" with a bias toward the upside. Seems like it just set a floor and will make a run upward to test the high of the day or the second high. I really could tell more if the candles had color.
Not making excuses, but I'd feel way more comfortable if the candles were red and white.
Based on volume alone, that looks like a range bound "stock" with a bias toward the upside. Seems like it just set a floor and will make a run upward to test the high of the day or the second high. I really could tell more if the candles had color.
Not making excuses, but I'd feel way more comfortable if the candles were red and white.