I have tried everything and nothing works (Technical analysis)

No matter what - trading takes everyone a lot of money and time to get dialed in. Sure, some people have a few good years early on - nearly all give it all back a few time over before getting and staying consistently good which is often in years 5-7. TA trading is maybe 10% charts, the other 90% is risk mgmt and your psychology/trading habits. The most important chart I follow is the one on me showing how I am doing in executing my trading plan. Forex is not the problem -TA is not the problem. Maybe find a veteran trader with a great track record who's style you like - learn all you can on how they do it - their philosophies, etc. Keep a trading journal so you can work more on your self.
 
dealmaker said:
1) Reading Price Charts Bar BY Bar - Al Brooks
2) High Probability Trading - Marcel Link
3) Trading from your Gut - Curtis Faith
More...


I haven't read that third one (is he a gastroenterologist?); I certainly endorse the first two suggestions. :cool:
 
iamnewuser911 said:
2 years of trying, I have tried everything and nothing works. Please point me in a direction. I have run out of ideas. Books, articles anything.

I am not ready to give up yet though, I still believe & have faith.
More...
No problem, but the odds of you doing it are very slim, which is why you will more than likely get nowhere like the rest who try.

  1. Pick a market you know a bit about, as they do differ depending on the area of finance.
  2. Pick what you consider to be an approach worth adopting based on your previous experiences.
  3. Divide your capital into 100 parts (1% risk per trade).
  4. Identify your entry and exit levels based on your chosen approach.
  5. On first signal to enter the market (it can be long or short) toss a coin.
  6. Ignore your bias and if Heads you go long, Tails you go short.
  7. If stop hit (trade 1), toss coin again and reenter market (trade 2).
  8. If in profit (trade 1) use trailing stop based on past experiences with chosen market.
  9. When target hit (trade 1), or trailing stop hit (trade1), toss coin again and reenter market (trade 2).
  10. Repeat steps from trade 2, staying in the market at all times.
Note. You can alter the % risk per trade based on your experience. If you understand the market you have chosen fairy well, then you might go to 5% if you are going to swingtrade or position trade, but if you are going to daytrade then forget it, and stick with the 1% risk per trade.

This is very easy, but right away you have to question yourself about what you know about the market you have decided to trade, if you have enough capital so that 1% allows you to use the stop amount you have decided to use, have you adequate time to monitor and execute, etc, etc, etc. It will not be long before you start to make some drastic changes to what you are used to doing, which, by your account is not very profitable, so, you really should be wanting to make some changes asap. Do you think you can do this, or will you just keep searching for other people to try and tell you how to make money trading? You might be very surprised by the results, and notice a few key things that you have not noticed in the past. I am not saying that you have to keep trading this way, and I am also not saying that you have to trade any way, as the best way is the way you find that makes you money.

BTW, I doubt very much that you have tried everything, but if you mean every TA combination to try and predict the future price, then, you will still be trying in another 50 years time. In order to improve on what you are doing you must make changes, and to make changes you must first stop what you are doing. I am looking forward to your reply, what ever it may be?
 
Get some good research, and put a solid back-tested program in place. You can join quantpedia.com for $500 (not affiliated), and find many Phd level research papers. It is working for me.
 
Develop a macro view and keep this view updated. Then derive trades from this view. Many places for macro, the best I have found is weekly market digest at the arora report blog. It is free. The other is macroview by Raul. Or you can read wsj
 
Gotcha said:
I tend to agree as well. Some say the entry is least important but I don't see how this could be. If your entry is good, you're not taking much heat, and if you are, then this tells you right away the trade isn't working so you can get out.

As for the edge discussion, I agree as well, but I'm not sure if what you say is specific enough for me. So many things have to work together. The OP might actually have very good trades, but horrible trade management. If perhaps all he does is move his stop or target, maybe he would be profitable. So this could be one edge. The other edge might be that he isn't taking each trade that he wants to because of fear, perhaps fear from the previous loss. That could be another edge he isn't exploiting.

But all of this to me doesn't really mean edge in terms of "if you do this, you will make money". The "this" is a combination of probably 10 things. If you take any one of those things away, there won't be profitability. On their own, each of these things won't get you past the finish line. I've seen over and over that one of the biggest edges that traders have is experience which allows them to discriminate between trades. There might be little nuances that prevent them from taking a trade, maybe something based on another market they watch at the same time.

Anyway, so I guess what I'm saying is that even though you say you need one good thing, I'm not sure what this one good thing can be because if all the other parts don't line up, this one good thing will appear like a loser. Precise criteria for trade entry can I think be very very good, but without applying this at a key level, or perhaps at a key time, or perhaps in conjunction with the general trend of the day, etc., would mean this trade entry might lead to more losses than profits. Anyway.. just thinking out loud.

Edit: Opps, I think I combined your post along with the post of lawrence-lugar in my reply.
More...

I don't consider trade management to be as important, it's a secondary concern. A strategy should hold up on its own with just a timed exit. Only then you start looking at stops and limits.
I'm a systematic trader so I don't need rules that are this fixed, I follow the signals when the market is open - no discretionary decisions allowed. Some of the best trades I've had have been at times when my mind is saying "don't take the trade".
I don't look at the general trend, signals I take have to survive all conditions. They have to be good enough that when the conditions (including trend conditions) are bad, I'm sitting on my hands.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top