Tesla is down trending, and after hours it can be close to 430, and another gap down tommorw it will be at 400 level
As stated, I believe the market is heading down. However, you're stating several ifs need to occur. These ifs lead you to estimate a good probability of success, hence my point about probability not equaling absolutes. We say it regularly, probability doesn't mean for sure, and yet, when things dont pan out we are confused. That's my only point. Maybe your analysis is solid, however, if you're wrong and others are right that doesn't mean you were necessarily wrong. Only that probability went the other way.