I have never seen a better trader than

[gms]

Quote from TM_Direct:

While I agree with your thought....if the Traders methods were so great...why are 70% of the daytrading firms and nearly 85% of the traders gone from the market?

Probably because they weren't good at it and returned dismally. The fact that successful profitable trading is difficult to attain doesn't equate with meager annual returns being considered splendiferous. But a trader returning 15% annually for such a firm wouldn't last too long either.

Quote from JesseJ:

He's not the real Barsamian... you folks are easily fooled.

It's hard to tell if he is who he says from what little we have. But your assertion does makes sense given one would think Wharton MBAs don't go around touting "hot" stock tips like some taxi cab driver or bartender may, and one would think a graduate of such a program wouldn't select, as an identification marker for himself, a bipolar manic depressive character such as Graham's famous "Mr. Market".

Well then, maybe some good samaritan will trouble themselves to contact the genuine Mr. Barsamian and point out to him the URLs allegedly stealing his identity, and Yahoo no doubt does not permit its accounts to be used in perpetration of such an alleged identity theft/deception and would close down those sites.

 

[Scientist]

Quote from Jesse J.:

your comparing apples to oranges. I didn't change ANY criteria.

I said "in a row". He did not get 56 hits in a row, he got a 56 GAME hit streak. There were tons of "outs" in between those hits.

Please don't tell me that Michael Jordan had 1,000 10 point games in a row! Do you see the difference?

The odds of Calvin Murphy making a free throw are 90%. I said It's impossible to make 53 of any "50%" probability. If the odds of Calvin making a free throw are 90%, that's not 50%. And he made more than 90 in a row.

As I said, the odds of making 53 in a row (of a 50% outcome ie coin flip) are billions to 1. Except of course, if your ernie the cheese.

But not all of us went to wharton like the guy mrmarket stole his identity from. I went to city college. and I'm proud of it.

Important to know if you're a gambler playing games like baccarat (which has a close to 50/50 chance) - You gotta know how the chances are to have a particular streak. That way you can constantly evaluate probability. Great practice for traders, too, by the way...
Here the stats of probability for trends (streaks) in coin-flipping / baccarat :

01=100% 1: 1
02= 50% 1: 2
03= 25% 1: 4
04= 12.5% 1: 8
05= 6.25% 1: 16
06= 3.125% 1: 32
07= 1.5625% 1: 64
08= 0.78125% 1:128
09= 0.390625% 1:256
10= 0.1953125% 1:512
20= 0.00019073486328125% 1:524,288
30= 0.000000186264514923095703125% 1:536,870,912
40= 1.818989403545856475830078125 e-10 (exp) 1:549,755,813,888
50= 1.7763568394002504646778106689453 e-13 (exp) 1:562,949,953,421,312
53= 2.22044604925031308084726633361816 e-14 (mrmarket) 1:4,503,599,627,370,496

(One to: Four Quadrillion, Five Hundred Three Trillion, Five Hundred Ninetynine Billion, Six Hundred Twenty-Seven Million, Three hundred Seventy Thousand Four Hundred and Ninety-Six.)

I just calculated that myself, so I take no responsibilities for typoes / misrepresentations!


Hope that helps you somehow...

~Scientist

 

[mrmarket]

Quote from indahook:



I disagree. I am a successful trader and the only education I have received is 4 years in the U.S Marine Corps. All that you require to be a great trader is a superior work ethic, the ability to admit you are wrong, discipline, a thirst for knowledge and a bank roll.

So you do agree with me. Thanks and good luck.

 

[mrmarket]

Quote from Scientist:


Important to know if you're a gambler playing games like baccarat (which has a close to 50/50 chance) - You gotta know how the chances are to have a particular streak. That way you can constantly evaluate probability. Great practice for traders, too, by the way...
Here the stats of probability for trends (streaks) in coin-flipping / baccarat :

01=100% 1: 1
02= 50% 1: 2
03= 25% 1: 4
04= 12.5% 1: 8
05= 6.25% 1: 16
06= 3.125% 1: 32
07= 1.5625% 1: 64
08= 0.78125% 1:128
09= 0.390625% 1:256
10= 0.1953125% 1:512
20= 0.00019073486328125% 1:524,288
30= 0.000000186264514923095703125% 1:536,870,912
40= 1.818989403545856475830078125 e-10 (exp) 1:549,755,813,888
50= 1.7763568394002504646778106689453 e-13 (exp) 1:562,949,953,421,312
53= 2.22044604925031308084726633361816 e-14 (mrmarket) 1:4,503,599,627,370,496

(One to: Four Quadrillion, Five Hundred Three Trillion, Five Hundred Ninetynine Billion, Six Hundred Twenty-Seven Million, Three hundred Seventy Thousand Four Hundred and Ninety-Six.)

I just calculated that myself, so I take no responsibilities for typoes / misrepresentations!


Hope that helps you somehow...

~Scientist

Mr. Scientist...while your arithmetic is correct, your calculation is based on an incorrect premise. Since I am carrying 14 open postions in my trading portfolio, the long odds you have calculated are reduced considerably. Nice try, though.

 

[Scientist]

I just watched a really amazing documentary on late primates.

They said that the only plausible reason for why they would have started doing something as useless and risky (visibility to predators) as walking on two legs would be the desire to be sexually attractive to the opposite gender.

They said the big hairy ape males used to pose (LOL-familiar?) by standing up to make themselves look bigger.
That way they hoped to attract more females.

Well, so they hoped, anyway. As it turned out, the development was much more likely to have happened due to the randy desire of the male counterparts for long, sexy legs. Which is why they kept mating with those particular females.

Also, they looked at the females breasts, in order to ensure the most sufficient nutritional supply for the infant while on long, hard journeys.

The females, in turn, tended to prefer mating with the most well-endowed men, which they interpreted as being more likely to bring them to a climax before the male would finish.

Which is the reason why we've got exceptionally large P*nises compared to other related species - (some 1 odd inch for a chimp)...

Besides, ever seen any of those primates mate? Takes about 10 seconds. Priorities have obviously shifted over the last 5 million years. Jeez, time flies...


Anyway - Guess who all this reminds me of?



~Scientist.

 

[Scientist]

Quote from mrmarket:



Mr. Scientist...while your arithmetic is correct, your calculation is based on an incorrect premise. Since I am carrying 14 open postions in my trading portfolio, the long odds you have calculated are reduced considerably. Nice try, though.

Of course not. That would imply that on every trade you make your chance of winning is reduced by another 50%. That's a completely different kind of situation - That applies on the long run, but not on the short - Which is why you can win even in games like baccarat, blackjack etc... Consistently!

If you want to come me with numbers, statistics and probability we can have a fight. I'm a systems designer and I will crush you.
But then - why would I bother?

I have had 30 winning trades in a row before - Not all that hard to achieve - position trading, is it? Sure. Can be done by a decent trader with more than 1/2 year experience.

Position trading is good for beginners, though. Once you get good at it, mr.market, you can halve your timeframe, have your risks and double your profits (well, almost, but...) But that would require actual trading skill, mr.market - Not "Buffet-Style" fundamentalism.

Eventually you might day trade. By then you'll probably start walking upright and using depilatory cream as well.


The fact that I mentioned your name in my statistic was a pure act of chance and fun. YOU have NO sense of humour. Sorry.


Ridiculatorily,

~Scientist

 

[Bolts]

Hey c'mon now, Scientist, the guy's already shirtless. You don't want to pressure him to prove he doesn't have a small penis.

 

[gms]

Quote from Scientist:

I just watched a really amazing documentary on late primates... They said that the only plausible reason for why they would have started doing something ...[early males] looked at the females breasts, in order to ensure the most sufficient nutritional supply for the infant while on long, hard journeys... The females, in turn, tended to prefer mating with the most well-endowed men, which they interpreted as being more likely to bring them to a climax before the male would finish.

There! You see, ladies? Scientists have found that men are not selfish, just seeking their own sexual contentment like you gals.

One question though for the scientists: How did primitive women know before the fact if a larger organ would bring them to climax so as to prefer it? And if this was a desirable attribute for attracting mates, then why haven't all men developed larger penises (they can say "penises" on TV and it is the accepted medical term, so I believe we can say it here) and multiple ones at that?

BTW, Scientist, isn't it amazing how it is that hairy apes can understand what belongs on their body and what doesn't, but they are unable to understand the difference between having a penis and being one? There's such a gap between hairy apes and civilized man.

 

[dgabriel]

Quote from Scientist:

I just watched a really amazing documentary on late primates.

They said that the only plausible reason for why they would have started doing something as useless and risky (visibility to predators) as walking on two legs would be the desire to be sexually attractive to the opposite gender.


~Scientist.

That's not at all what is said in the prevailing theories for emergence of bipedalism.

Energy conservation in savannah foraging. 4 legged walking by apes is much more expensive in calories than upright.

Larger brains, longer childhoods, tight social structures, labor division, opposable thumbs, pair bonding, all a web of mutually reinforcing traits emerging with bipedalism.

Primate males put a premium on a nice juicy ass. Humans and orangutans.

 

[Scientist]

Quote from dgabriel:



That's not at all what is said in the prevailing theories for emergence of bipedalism.

Energy conservation in savannah foraging. 4 legged walking by apes is much more expensive in calories than upright.

You are right. All those points were mentioned - However, the latest state of research suggests that the benefit of energy saving was not sufficient to make up for the misbenefit of being so detectable - to both animal and human predators (neighbours - nothing has changed.) Therefore it is now assumed that it's more likely that sex is the really only weighty enough explanation of and reason for changes in human psychology. They not only wanted to conserve energy for having sex, but also wanted to be 'more self-displaying' by being taller. However, it could also be largely to the fact that human males always tried (try?) to appear larger than they are (which IS the case if you're a quadropedic LOL). Males have always battled for supremacy in every way possible. Which is why I'm one of those wankers driving a sportscar living in one of those wanker-houses in a wanker-beach-paradise, with girls a wanker doesn't deserve ;P You see, that is the nature of the complaints of the opposing male force at all times. Which is why constant battles occured between males. Eventually, the arguments between tribes got so drastic that they wanted war, and they wanted anything that could help them. They found out that flintstones and branches could hurt more and have more rach than the bare fist. The weapon was born. This is also when they would have started hunting.
Nevertheless, after all this, it seemed difficult to bear arms while dragging your knuckles on the floor. Now here is where it could have all started. Human started walking = human started being an aggressive, hostile, destructive and exploitive creature.

Anybody here can do the "swing the bat while on 3 limbs" trick?

Larger brains, longer childhoods, tight social structures, labor division, opposable thumbs, pair bonding, all a web of mutually reinforcing traits emerging with bipedalism.

Yeah, and then they voted for Bush and the theory of 8 million years of evolution was overthrown / violated / ended.

Primate males put a premium on a nice juicy ass. Humans and orangutans.

LOL. I'm a primate male then. Reach me a banana -please :


~Scientist