Quote from Jesse J.:
your comparing apples to oranges. I didn't change ANY criteria.
I said "in a row". He did not get 56 hits in a row, he got a 56 GAME hit streak. There were tons of "outs" in between those hits.
Please don't tell me that Michael Jordan had 1,000 10 point games in a row! Do you see the difference?
The odds of Calvin Murphy making a free throw are 90%. I said It's impossible to make 53 of any "50%" probability. If the odds of Calvin making a free throw are 90%, that's not 50%. And he made more than 90 in a row.
As I said, the odds of making 53 in a row (of a 50% outcome ie coin flip) are billions to 1. Except of course, if your ernie the cheese.
But not all of us went to wharton like the guy mrmarket stole his identity from. I went to city college. and I'm proud of it.
The odds of me picking a winning stock, using my model, are much greater than 50%. Others on this board have estimated it at around 80%. Actually, if you take my streak where I had 53 consecutive profitable trades with only 6 open losing positions during the streak, that would mean I was picking 90% winners.
So it looks like Calvin Murphy and myself had about the same success rate. Which seems to make sense to me since picking winning stocks is actually easier than making free throws when you use my quantitative momentum model.
