Quote from mrmarket:
You can be correct 100% of the time if no one knows your position. Good call, TM.
I believe predicting and anticipation are orthagonal to each other. I orient to anticipation and use market measures.
I am glad others have their personal approaches whatever they may be.
What I see with any stock is that I will be taken into the trade as the market moves to me. I did a graphical analysis of NFI because it looked liike it did.
The play as I see it is from 44 to 52 and reverse. I know many buy stocks at highs and hold as they make newer highs.
The phase of trading that NFI is in now started when it broke 40 in April. Swing traders who hold smaller positions like less than 10,000 shares can play it quite well on EOD data. They can turn it several times a month going both ways.
Because I am older and stuff like that, I just cruise along rotating my capital every 6 to 8 days and I am satisfied with 50% of the cycle profits each turn so I only try to pick off 10% as a minimum.
I tried to express my reservations as a comment that backs my viewpoint. I anticipated that the volume would pick up the last 30 min and the price would move.
Today turned out like the 16th, so we probably are in for two to three days of low volatility and lower volume. Look at the MACD in the illustration to confirm how the situation is like the 16th, etc.
After that a person can bracket in by letting the market move to one of the bracket values which represent either long or short holds. When the trade is taken, then you can capture the profits.
Right now we are on the high side of a lateral channel. I do not predict anything. And I certainly would not be holding this stock now since it has broken through the channel it was in for the last few days.
My approach is to be in stocks that are moving and to continually have a pile of potential stocks to play when my capital is freed when I exit a stock currently being held. I am not a part time person like MM who basically does fundamental analysis and "buy and hold" stuff.