That because we all create different decisions. Not because it trendy means that we should go in one direction.
I have never met a successful trend follower
- Thread starter 1a2b3cppp
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Can't they?
I seem to see many definitions of trend.
It seems to me that a trend exists only within and only defined according to a specific time-frame, and that it's normal for any instrument to be trending in a given direction within one time-frame while simultaneously ranging and trending in the opposite direction in different time-frames.
An example of a simple definition of a trend follows (there are others, of course): when the 15-period SMA is above the 50-period SMA and both are rising and diverging, then there's an uptrend within that time-frame (and the converse, of course, for a downtrend). It's not my definition, but it's a perfectly workable and reasonable one, if you like that kind of thing, and it's one of a type of which I've seen many discussed in forums, so my experience on that point's different from yours.
Collective predicting, yes, indeed. As a probability function.
The word "predicting" causes endless arguments (or pantie-knotting, as you might call it) in forums, when unclarified, simply because it's a classic example of a word which people use with significantly different meanings, and then they typically talk at cross-purposes without quite realising why.
For myself, every time I enter a trade I don't know in which direction the price will move, so I'm not "predicting"; but I do know what the collective financial outcomes of my next 300 trades will be (within about 3-4% anyway), so I am "predicting". Simple.
If viewed as a probability function, which is what it really is, whether that's stated or not.
I don't; but perhaps you do?
... a context that happens to suit me, since it's what I do.
You should get out more (as it were).
I don't really know what that means (but to be honest I probably disagree with it anyway).
I prefer the working definition of the guy interviewed in one of those Jack Schwager Market Wizards books, whose explanation of "what a trend is" involved printing out the chart, pinning it on his office wall, looking at it from ten feet away and seeing whether he could identify a clear up-slope or down-slope in the prices, from that distance.
Anyway, to address your original statement in the thread-title, I'm a "successful trend follower" in the sense that I select only trade-entries that are in the same direction as the current underlying trend in that time-frame, as I've defined it (not as I've defined it above, but as I define it for my work). Nice to meet you.
Trading has not only become much harder, but it has also changed. In the 1970s, the price moves were so
large that all you had to do was jump on the bandwagon. Timing was not that critical. Now it's no longer
sufficient to assume that because you trade with the trend, you'll make money. Of course, you still need to
be with the trend, because it puts the percentages in your favor, but you also have to pay a lot more
attention to where you're getting in and out. I would say that in the 1970s prognostication was 90 percent
and execution 10 percent, whereas today prognostication is 25 percent and execution 75 percent.
-Randy Mckay, New market wizards
large that all you had to do was jump on the bandwagon. Timing was not that critical. Now it's no longer
sufficient to assume that because you trade with the trend, you'll make money. Of course, you still need to
be with the trend, because it puts the percentages in your favor, but you also have to pay a lot more
attention to where you're getting in and out. I would say that in the 1970s prognostication was 90 percent
and execution 10 percent, whereas today prognostication is 25 percent and execution 75 percent.
-Randy Mckay, New market wizards
perhaps successful traders focus on trend reversal.
I have never met a left handed poker player who makes money.
You can get rich paper trading? Go figure!I'll assume you mean trend following...for real-time, not hindsight. (because it's easy to pull up historical charts and draw lines)
I like to think I'm kind of good at following/predicting/monitoring the trend for the Dow/spy/spx chart on a daily basis time frame.
You have to establish logical and rational initial loose, general, directional or semi-directional biases...and wait for the subtle, breakout signs or reversal signs to peek out and expose themselves. It's kind of a constant hybrid, dynamic dance to trade it successfully.
Scalping is for jackal amateurs -- I aim to seize the main, macro moves.
You can't trade or wait for or expect something...if you don't know what to look for, or reasonably hunt and position for.
It's all about understanding the hunting ground...and the relationship between the prey and predator -- and all its collective dynamic variables between them.
Part art, part science...if you have a linear, square brain looking for an automated solution Holy Grail you will fail.
Make Trading Great Again,
Get rich in 2018...High-Fives` all-around,
Jerry Parker
But do you define that as a player who uses his left hand to look at his hole-cards and place his bets, or do you think some right-handed players also do that, just to give the appearance of being left-handed, as a bluff?