Everyone talks about trend following but no one seems to do it. Like we have seen numerous times on this forum, no one can even define a trend, much less follow it. The thing that has been pointed out before is that in order to have a trend, you have to have one point where you do not identify a trend, and then one point where you do and believe it's going to continue, and that is where you know a trend has started. This can be the close of a period, a candle, the change of an indicator, anything. People get their panties in a knot when you tell them this alsmost as much as they do when you say that all trading is predicting. Which it is, by the way. You are either predicting volatility or price movement. A long position is predicting price will go up. An option is predicting price will move or not move. Arbitrage is predicting price differences will stay so you can use them. Pairs trading is predicting relative price direction. Spread trading is predicting an offer will continue to be there so you can get it. Idiots, scammers, and cranks, there is a difference, say things like you should react to price, not predict price. There is no different with those, you are predicting because you think you have the best chance of something happening. Or maybe it would be better to say those methods of trading are (should be) the outcome of your prediction.
The concern with trend following is that you have to take every trade. Since people only win like 10% of the time or something, you need those instances to actually be profitable. Look, don't get me wrong, if you have a winning system keep doing it. THe process of trend trading was explained in this thread, though. TO be aboslutley clear, however, I'm tlaking about intraday trading.
THe only people I've talked to on this forum that I think might actually be sustainable are people who sell into resistance. Do you guys honestly think market makers care about your 1 contract order sitting above the previous high?
I believe the only not manipulative edge is account size. Or arbitrage. Even that thread about the trading business, every story was about people with big accounts selling into up movement and buying into down movement. Were they identifying trends and riding them? They were going against what the market was doing and making money. They were buying BSC as it fell because that's how you make money. Stops are knowing when to pause. None of them were shoring it although that's what the trend was doing.
The concern with trend following is that you have to take every trade. Since people only win like 10% of the time or something, you need those instances to actually be profitable. Look, don't get me wrong, if you have a winning system keep doing it. THe process of trend trading was explained in this thread, though. TO be aboslutley clear, however, I'm tlaking about intraday trading.
THe only people I've talked to on this forum that I think might actually be sustainable are people who sell into resistance. Do you guys honestly think market makers care about your 1 contract order sitting above the previous high?
I believe the only not manipulative edge is account size. Or arbitrage. Even that thread about the trading business, every story was about people with big accounts selling into up movement and buying into down movement. Were they identifying trends and riding them? They were going against what the market was doing and making money. They were buying BSC as it fell because that's how you make money. Stops are knowing when to pause. None of them were shoring it although that's what the trend was doing.
