I have bought Al Brooks' Trading Course

justrading said:
Seriously? You really think all those gyrations in CL are based on Supply and Demand?

Are you fucking stupid?
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Not all of the time :), but as you brought it up, the Nymex boys are a different story altogether, and the retail dabbler would we well advised to stay clear!

J_S
 
J_Smith said:
Not all of the time :), but as you brought it up, the Nymex boys are a different story altogether, and the retail dabbler would we well advised to stay clear!

J_S
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You are most gracious sir, and for that you have my respect.

Please just avoid the generalisations.
 
J_Smith said:
Salesmen will never be good traders, for they are not honest, as honesty does not make them sales - their main focus is on deception, as when you make someone buy something they do not need, you are deceiving the person!
.....yet are you aware that when one deceives others they are actually deceiving themselves.

Most of them fail to realize, that, what goes round comes round.
.....cause and effect.....but do you actually know the origin of that cause?
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marketsurfer said:
So, you may know the answer, how many criminal investigations lead to the conviction of the criminal? Are there stats on this? I don't know.
.....the need to know what is important to know is critical here. Conviction rate is not important and it does nothing to solve the actual crime.....however, even if the crime is not solved, that doesn't mean there were no criminals related to the crime.....as the crime does exist and that crime depends on the criminal as the cause.

While you know what the criminal or price did, all the evidence left at the scene does not tell you what the criminal or price will do next.

.....criminal and price here are not the same.....crime is an effect (a fact), created by a cause (the criminal).....by analysing evidence leads to solving the crime (to catch the criminal).....it has nothing to do with what the criminal will do next!!.....you are asking the wrong questions.

.....price on the other hand.....you are only looking at relative truth at face value.....which in itself an illusion.....one needs to understand the "how" and "why".....furthermore.....a need to comprehend.....where a very few can achieve.....I say less than 1%.....yet it is obvious.
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Here's another one that I haven't seen here yet, but it's actually mentioned at a stock exchange acronym site I came across. Would apply to longs (including inverse ETF's for shorts who don't want to use margin.) :)

Buy on Breakout.
 
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justrading said:
You are most gracious sir, and for that you have my respect.

Please just avoid the generalisations.
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As you are probably aware, the "markets" are not all that they seem to be, but, if you extract CL, which as far as I know is the only market that is "truly" manipulated, then we can generalize to a degree.

However, it is worth nothing, that the seasonality of commodities lend such markets to a certain type of analysis that is very repeatable and very predictable.

A certain section of this analysis can be effectively applied to any market, as the underlying "movers" are people, it is just that people have different objectives and opinions, so, when something does not work out, you must get out and move on to the next trade without rattling your brain over matters that do not really matter!

J_S
 
To add some reality to what we discussed, let the viewers make up their own minds by observation.

J_S

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Ok. I just prefer to study the CAUSE of price movement, rather than the EFFECT price itself.

It makes no sense to me to study the effect to predict additional effect

But to each his own

Peace
 
marketsurfer said:
Ok. I just prefer to study the CAUSE of price movement, rather than the EFFECT price itself.

Peace
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The cause of why price moves (not counting short term imbalance) could require an incredible amount of research (depending on the instrument, of course), whereas the movement as a result of the cause would have less variables to deal with (IMO), especially if it is a repeating visual charting event over history. Why would cause be a factor for TA guys who couldn't care less about things like transportation indices, earnings reports, news alerts on stocks (yeah, I've been fucked by false news...especially during a short education in penny stocks), and so on...especially if they are trading 5 minute charts? Such causes would matter to investors, absolutely, but why should short term traders care if it shows up the same way time and again on a chart?

Isn't TA the visual result of the cause (the representation of what the instrument did based on fundamentals...or better yet...what it's doing NOW because of the fundamentals or other forces (such as the fed:eek:)?

TA lags (indicators), price bars show what's happening now as they form (minus latency), but that doesn't mean they're not going to show a probability of where something might go, based on where it's going right now.
 
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