I have bought Al Brooks' Trading Course

Frederick Foresight · Sep 10, 2015

marketsurfer said:
But your backtesting is inherently flawed in multiple ways. First , the assumption of steady state repeating patterns is a myth. Secondly, you don't use enough data to make valid probability ascessments and thirdly the markets are constantly changing so what was will likely not happen again among other reasons.

Sorry to rain on your parade but dats a fact jack.

Would those very conditions not also invalidate anything VN does? ("Anything that can be tested must be tested.")

wjk · Sep 10, 2015

Modern trader mag had an interesting interview a few months ago with a top pro poker player, who I think they said also trades. If trading is like gambling, perhaps that is a reasonable comparison.

Regarding math and TA: Fibonacci: If you place Fib levels on a chart, are you using TA or math? Just curious (I don't use them, but have in the past).

Frederick Foresight · Sep 10, 2015

wjk said:
Modern trader mag had an interesting interview a few months ago with a top pro poker player, who I think they sais also trades. If trading is like gambling, perhaps that is a reasonable comparison.

Both trading and poker are gambling. They both involve betting on uncertain outcomes. Some poker players are consistently better than other poker players, just as some traders are consistently better than other traders.

Visaria · Sep 10, 2015

londonkid said:
I don't use TA in the standard sense but it is useful to me. As with most methods the majority of traders lose money. TA can be a powerful tool because if you know a subset of traders will take trades based on TA setups that gives you a lot of information. The market makers obviously know this and price moves to liquidity where they get their inventory flat.

Maybe a small % of TA traders are profitable, I have never met one though whilst I have met profitable traders who use other methods like market profile & fundamentals.

Typically I look to get out of a trade where technical traders place their stops then reverse.

See attached chart of dealer inventory as the life cycle of the market repeats and repeats. GL

View attachment 156709

Kid, can you explain the charts, please? What am i looking at?

Frederick Foresight · Sep 10, 2015

wjk said:
Regarding math and TA: Fibonacci: If you place Fib levels on a chart, are you using TA or math? Just curious (I don't use them, but have in the past).

If you're using Fibonacci numbers in your trading, then you're engaging in wishful thinking and mysticism, and you better hope that the rest of your trading plan makes up for those indulgences.

Visaria · Sep 10, 2015

marketsurfer said:
Anonymous posters who are full of chest beating tarzan like yet purely anecdotal evidence cannot ridicule me or anyone --- let's see your evidence--and identity. unless you live in your mother's basement as i suspect.

c'mon surf, keep it civil...i'm moderating my own thread today !!! hehehe

marketsurfer · Sep 10, 2015

Frederick Foresight said:
Would those very conditions not also invalidate anything VN does? ("Anything that can be tested must be tested.")

No, because VNs testing is statistically valid and takes those things into consideration in the tests.

wjk · Sep 10, 2015

Frederick Foresight said:
Both trading and poker are gambling. They both involve betting on uncertain outcomes. Some poker players are consistently better than other poker players, just as some traders are consistently better than other traders.

The ones who know when to hold, and know when to fold.

Frederick Foresight · Sep 10, 2015

marketsurfer said:
No, because VNs testing is statistically valid and takes those things into consideration in the tests.

That is a BS response. You are talking over your head. Statistical validity cannot overcome non-recurring patterns. Yet you regard non-recurring patterns as flawing the premise of TA. But not statistical testing? You are talking out of your hat.

In fact, patterns need not be identical, but they can have similarity that can be numerically identified for trading purposes. That is what VN alludes to, and that is what intelligent use of TA can accomplish, your army of two-dimensional straw men notwithstanding.

wjk · Sep 10, 2015

Frederick Foresight said:
If you're using Fibonacci numbers in your trading, then you're engaging in wishful thinking and mysticism, and you better hope that the rest of your trading plan makes up for those indulgences.

My understanding it that some algos do use Fib numbers and treat them as support and resistance. If enough traders use any indicator, couldn't it become a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts?