I have a dream.

Yes, a very interesting approach !

Keep 50 % of your money in long positions
and the other 50 % in short positions.

This way you are hedged against any market
crash, in fact, when such a crash happens
you can expect to make a profit because
the stocks on which you are short should
be falling more then the strong stocks in
which you are long....:0))))(if you made
the right selection, off course)

This is the strategy of quite a few hedge
funds, the long/short approach.

At this moment I'm researching a few options
on which basis I will select the long and
short positions.

A strategy could be ; buy the stocks that
made the most % gain in the last month
and short the one's that made the greatest
% loss that month.
Each month, there should be made a decision
which stock should stay in the selection and
which should be eliminated and replaced by
other's.
 
Originally posted by praetorian2
good guess. MM it is. C'ya at a buck fifty.
More...

Can I ask what determines whether you open a position in stocks
such as MM/THV? Is it their high book value or the fact that they
have dive bombed to such a low? Nobody is short THV but MM
has a short interest of 38.6% of the float as of Jan 8th
according to Yahoo. So I don't think the short interest has any
thing to do with your selection process. Do they have to be at
a 52 week low? Both companies are under 35 million in Market
cap. I know you like NYSE stocks so you can read the specialist.

Any insights would be appreciated...(to say the least)... :)
 
mm is just flat out oversold I tried to understand the company. It is hopeless to try, but I think it's a $3 company honestly. Thv on the other hand will make 35-60c this year depending on how you crunch the numbers. It's possible that they'll make a buck in 2003, but I think it's closer to around 70-90c. Do the numbers. It's the best deal on wall st. At a buck 20, it's an absolute steal. A pe of 2 or so is unreal, especially with cash flow really ramping up like it is.
 
I added some more mm and sold some of my prior mm at .82. I lowered my cost basis quite a bit by taking some losses now. I currently have 69k of mm at a basis of about .85
 
Originally posted by praetorian2
I added some more mm and sold some of my prior mm at .82. I lowered my cost basis quite a bit by taking some losses now. I currently have 69k of mm at a basis of about .85
More...

Praetorian,

By what indicators can you tell that the stock is oversold? I'm sure it will bounce at some point since the stock has declined so much, but it doesn't appear to have a huge volume/capitulation day yet.
 
Htrader,
Unfortunately I have to agree with you. I hate to take this much stock home overnight. I really hate to do it when I'm as unconfident as I am now. The only indicator I can really use to tell that I think it's ready is the fact that I compute a ratio that can discern capitulatory bottoms. As of now, The ratio on mm is the second highest I have ever gotten. (first highest was on gx where the stock went from .38 where I bought to 1.5 in a week). I don't know where the true bottom will be. But I feel pretty certain that the closing price of .8 is within a dime of that bottom. Also, it really does seem that someone is soaking up huge size with 500k bids. He came back almost as soon as he was eaten again today. I assume he'll come back again and again. He's hungry. In the end, only time will tell. Bottom picking is like explosives. If you're close enough, you win. You dont have to be exact most of the time.
 
Stockbroker:

I think you need to clarify this. Do you mean to make actual profits of a million? Or just holding a million dollar positions as a "million dollar trader"? Because it seems like some people here seem to say oh if you have 57,000 shares etc that's a million dollar positions. But that's not the same as making a million dollars which is what I think you mean.

So, let's do some calculations here. There are roughly 250 trading days in a year. $1M/250days = $4000/day NET! Which is quite possible with enough effort. But I think it's misleading. Because NO ONE can have that kind of consistency of pulling $4K out of the market every single freakin day. The more likely scenario/statistics is that they have really BIG winning days like $10-$15K and a few losing days hopefully keeping it small like under $1K. And maybe on average make $1-$2K. And somehow it all adds up to $1M. That's the more likely distribution of winnings.

So, what that means is to keep your losses small so that when you are in a losing streak or not on top of your game it will not totally kill your P/L.

And when you are winning, LET YOUR WINNERS RUN! If one doesn't let the winners run, there's NO way in hell you can make good money. Yes, there are scalpers on the Chicago pits who pull consistently millions out of the market every year. But it's a DIFFERENT market - mostly futures market with lots of liquidity and depth. So, someone can move 5000-10.000 bond future contracts and make good money day in an day out only with a FEW points move.

I've been thinking abotu it for the equity market. In order to make that kind of money, you GOTTA hold onto your winners and ride out the big move. I've not known a million dollars equity scalpers YET.. Perhaps, the only exception is the market-maket/specialist who has tens of millions at their disposal.

Because the most well paid peopl ein the market are hedge fund managers. And they make anywhere from nothing(blowing up to) to tens of hundreds of millions. And they can't scalp. Can you imagine scalping a hundred million dollars portfolio? I don't think so!

So, the dream of daytrading into millionaires is pretty far off as I'm dreadfully beginning to realize this UNLESS you have to hold longer for bigger moves. Even in the heydays of 1999, you have to hold days or months to get the several hundred points move in each of those crazy internet stocks. Intraday, they moved like maybe 5-10-15pts. Which is a hella lot than nowadays more typical move of 1-2pts.

what do you guys think?

that's my 2cents,

trader99
 
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