I have 38 emini sp500 Dec future(ESZ6) short positions, what will you suggest me to do?

[Handle123]

possible suggestion 1: close all positions. why?

possible suggestion 2: wait for market down and then close it. why? what is the risk?

other suggestions ? and what is the reason behind the suggestion?

My current plan is:sell ES put against these 38 ES until all positions are assigned/covered:
1) sell cboe spx index put options below 2145 (to 2050) expired on every Mondays about 100 contracts(=200 es put positions because it is x100 sp500 index ).
2) sell emini ES put weekly options below 2150 (to 2050)expired on every Wednesdays (about 100 put positions)
3) sell emini ES put weekly options below 2150 (to 2050)expired on every Fridays (about 100 put positions)
I have collected $12000 from Wednesday to Friday from 50 to 38 short position. But I short ES at a much lower price too embarrass to say.

The reasons for above strategy are:
1) maximize margin in my account so can collect as much put premium
2) reduce risk of large short put positions in case Emini ES has sudden large drop so I will have large ES long position.
3) in my opinion, market fully(?) priced in the good Trump(large stimulus, less regulation), but bad Trump (whether all above will be realized, trade war, uncertain what Trump will do or say, Dec Fed raise rate, Dollar index surge, tech leaders FANG has been selling off) lots of unknown will keep sp500 range bound.
4) what could my strategy and above opinion about the market be wrong? Dow dos break up to all time high. what is the worst could happen? (which keep me waking up and write this post at 4am pt.)

Thank you for any of your thoughts! And good luck to your trade.

Anyone trading more than 2-3 usually have a pretty good Trading Plan and when you ask forum for help on unrealistic amount over few contracts, you are either wasting print or don't have a good Trading Plan and should get flat till you develop more rigid Trading Plan.

I was short from late summer, election night triggered "news" signal seldom used and reversed, am going to remain long till new contract highs and resume looking to short/and hedge. I don't trade by opinions and what I think, it all automated so I can't screw it up. I use to use my "keen ability" to change rules only to make matters worse LOL, I would never come to forum for help though on any position, otherwise you don't have a system.

Good luck.

 

[Palindrome]

Sp500 has a natural drift UP. You should then rarely short.

 

[ET180]

Close the position. Invest in mutual funds, maybe large cap / S&P500 ETFs. Don't do anything else. Maybe sell some covered calls the next time you feel like trading. Or better, just go to Vegas and play small as gambling appears to be your thing. If you have 38 contracts of exposure in anything, you should not be asking questions like this. You're risking way too much relative to your apparent market experience.

 

[Dolemite]

possible suggestion 1: close all positions. why?

possible suggestion 2: wait for market down and then close it. why? what is the risk?

other suggestions ? and what is the reason behind the suggestion?

I think you meant:
"I have 38 emini sp500 Dec future(ESZ6) short positions in a paper acount"

 

[Volfixtrader]

There is nothing easier than to give a variety of tips, the whole industry built on this business. A very successful business, but not for those who ask

 

[Trading Education Buyer]

There is nothing easier than to give a variety of tips, the whole industry built on this business. A very successful business, but not for those who ask

Most profitable trade

trading is about pressing buy sell buttons ,

so so; wrote 6 books and sold them , sold indicators ,sold automated programs , education , back testing software , anylysis , systems , methods , formulaes , trend courses , then price action courses , but the best trade was selling a course in trading the market chop+ phsychology + emotions and loss recovery formula , after all the others failed.It was the most profitable.

 

[Zzzz1]

What a horrible horrible advice.

Current position is apparently deeply underwater and you suggest a way more complex position? Wtf. That's just outright stupid.

If you write your average price of short entries , somebody might sugges a solution .I would say convert it to a butterfly

, buy calls atm , sell 2 puts lower for every short and hope it goes your way , get longer term premium like 2 to 3 months

 

[Zzzz1]

Don't be stupid here. You sit on a simple short futures position and should definitely not get into options or other futures expiries now. It's a simply binary decision. Stay in because you believe the market will further sell off or exit/reduce because you believe the market will find more upside.

Nobody can make that decision for you because you will otherwise lack conviction in your decision.

But don't be dumb and follow some stupid advice to turn your position into some zombie structure. To hedge? Bullshit. Hedge by reducing or exiting the position. Simple as that. If you cannot accept taking losses, small or big, then you will be toast in this industry anyway. Look for a different job if you must, but keep it simple, don't follow advice to make this situation way more complex.

possible suggestion 1: close all positions. why?

possible suggestion 2: wait for market down and then close it. why? what is the risk?

other suggestions ? and what is the reason behind the suggestion?

My current plan is:sell ES put against these 38 ES until all positions are assigned/covered:
1) sell cboe spx index put options below 2145 (to 2050) expired on every Mondays about 100 contracts(=200 es put positions because it is x100 sp500 index ).
2) sell emini ES put weekly options below 2150 (to 2050)expired on every Wednesdays (about 100 put positions)
3) sell emini ES put weekly options below 2150 (to 2050)expired on every Fridays (about 100 put positions)
I have collected $12000 from Wednesday to Friday from 50 to 38 short position. But I short ES at a much lower price too embarrass to say.

The reasons for above strategy are:
1) maximize margin in my account so can collect as much put premium
2) reduce risk of large short put positions in case Emini ES has sudden large drop so I will have large ES long position.
3) in my opinion, market fully(?) priced in the good Trump(large stimulus, less regulation), but bad Trump (whether all above will be realized, trade war, uncertain what Trump will do or say, Dec Fed raise rate, Dollar index surge, tech leaders FANG has been selling off) lots of unknown will keep sp500 range bound.
4) what could my strategy and above opinion about the market be wrong? Dow dos break up to all time high. what is the worst could happen? (which keep me waking up and write this post at 4am pt.)

Thank you for any of your thoughts! And good luck to your trade.

 

[Zzzz1]

Lol, right. That must be the place where he gets truly honest and unbiased advice.

Who's your broker ? you should work with a voice broker to discuss your positions, not random strangers on the Internet.

 

[Overnight]

I don't understand how options truly work beyond a basic understanding of the devilish things that they are, but I feel Zzzz1 is doing his best to tell the OP to stop the madness and take true stock of the predicament he/she be in, and make it right, right quick. 38 contracts open in this instrument can go very bad, very quickly. How options can mitigate it I can only muse upon, but very scary to be in that place...Unless one does have 7 figures of cash in the trading account.