I hate when people say most traders fail because they are undercapitalized

[marketsurfer]

Quote from kut2k2:

I contend that any strategy that can't be programmed into a computer is ipso facto discretionary.

The trader who says most people can't follow his strategy is talking about a discretionary strategy, not a mechanical one. He may have convinced himself that his strategy is mechanical but the final proof is programmabilty: either it's there or it's not.

If a machine can't be programmed to duplicate it, it is discretionary. I have no interest in discretionary trading; it is subjective and therefore an art, not a science.

Moreover, discretionary trading is drudgery. It requires constant work. The main rationale for inventing computers in the first place was to reduce or eliminate drudgery.

I know mechanical trading isn't for everybody, just like discretionary trading isn't for everybody, but mechanical trading offers the greatest promise of profiting because it completely eliminates the element of emotion. Just follow the rules. If you truly have a mechanical edge, you'll succeed in the long run even if you're bedridden with the flu.

I never said successful mechanical trading would be easy, no manner of successful trading is easy. But I for one simply cannot devote 10000 hours of eyeballs-to-chart time in the hope of developing an intuitive feel for price action. There has to be a better way and it's worth the risk of failure for me to look for it.

This is `100% brilliance--- I agree completely. The 10k hour figure to learn how to read charts is a total joke. why not 50k hours or never?? Why folks use the massive computer power to build charts that are discretionarly interpreted is bizarre. It's just a cop out for the inept regardless of what they say or claim.

Anything that can work in the market can be programmed, EVERY chart artist who has ever tried to "program" their supposed system has failed. This is fact. The reason is charts are discretionary---why they just refuse to admit this shows the lack of understanding on the chart readers side.

Edge exists, it simply isn't where the majority are looking.

surf

 

[Wait4proof]

cygnetnoir,
You back to pimping you Gambling theory again?
Wow.

Answer this:
What is a "bet"?
Do you own something of value with a bet?

Never mind. Don't answer. You're an idiot anyway.
With your semantics, I'm sure you define all women are "Hookers".

And I'm certain that makes you Gay.
Of course, I mean "Happy", since that is what Gay means right?

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Pekelo:

So in plain English, you are saying there is no edge at all, for nobody.

Tell me again, why are you on this forum?

yes that's what I am saying, very astute of you

there is no "Edge"

anymore than there is an "Edge" for Mcdonalds

or Target

or Apple

you are in the retail business

how many times do I have to explain it to your stupid ass?

sit around sometime in jail and play blackjack for cigarettes "all ties go to the dealer" and you will find out what an "edge" is

 

[Wait4proof]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Anything that can work in the market can be programmed

The question becomes:
How much programming simply automates what the human is doing anyway?

In other words, aren't most programs born from successful discretionary trading techniques?

 

[Pekelo]

Quote from oldtime:

yes that's what I am saying, very astute of you

So again, why are you here? There is no edge, there is no point to trading, are you trying to open our eyes or what?

And people who consistently make money for extended periods of time are just incredibly lucky?

 

[oldtime]

Quote from Pekelo:

So again, why are you here? There is no edge, there is no point to trading, are you trying to open our eyes or what?

And people who consistently make money for extended periods of time are just incredibly lucky?

you are part of the merchant class

there is no particular edge

you make money by buying low and selling high

it is very risky

but beats working a real job

but if it's really imprtant to you to think you are not a gambler, and have some kind of unique edge, that somehow nobody that ever came before you discovered, dream on.

Like the man said, "I'm not any smarter than you, I've just been around a little longer."

 

[NoDoji]

Quote from marketsurfer:

Anything that can work in the market can be programmed, EVERY chart artist who has ever tried to "program" their supposed system has failed. This is fact.

A chart is a graphic representation (graph) of price movement and volume.

From what I've seen, most automated trading programs are based on price and/or volume.

What is the difference between a computer placing orders based on values of price/volume and a set of eyes placing orders based on a graphic representation of the values of price/volume?

Are you implying that every successful automated trading program is based on something other than price and/or volume?

 

[cornix]

Quote from marketsurfer:

This is `100% brilliance--- I agree completely. The 10k hour figure to learn how to read charts is a total joke. why not 50k hours or never?? Why folks use the massive computer power to build charts that are discretionarly interpreted is bizarre. It's just a cop out for the inept regardless of what they say or claim.

Anything that can work in the market can be programmed, EVERY chart artist who has ever tried to "program" their supposed system has failed. This is fact. The reason is charts are discretionary---why they just refuse to admit this shows the lack of understanding on the chart readers side.

Edge exists, it simply isn't where the majority are looking.

surf

The reason why not mechanical algo is simple (for me at least): I don't know 100% mechanical edge which produces as good result as my chart-reading skill does. If I knew, of course would just run the algo across many markets and devote the free time to philosophy instead. Chart-reading is not a religion, just optimal way to make profits... so far.

 

[newwurldmn]

Quote from oldtime:

yes that's what I am saying, very astute of you

there is no "Edge"

anymore than there is an "Edge" for Mcdonalds

or Target

or Apple

you are in the retail business

how many times do I have to explain it to your stupid ass?

sit around sometime in jail and play blackjack for cigarettes "all ties go to the dealer" and you will find out what an "edge" is

Actual businesses can have an edge. These are called economic moats.

They can be lower raw material costs; economy of scale; permits for operations; etc.

AAPL is the largest consumer of DRAM on the planet. They have pricing power no one else has.


There are traders with actual edge, but there are very few of them.

Edges would be: favorable funding rates, access to non-public information, truly superior execution, etc. Only the smartest hedgefunds and banks have these kinds of edge which is why they can make money year in and year out.

Having a system isn't an edge even if it's statistically profitable. A profitable system can beat the fact that you don't have an edge or it can exploit an edge that you have.

 

[cornix]

Quote from NoDoji:

A chart is a graphic representation (graph) of price movement and volume.

From what I've seen, most automated trading programs are based on price and/or volume.

What is the difference between a computer placing orders based on values of price/volume and a set of eyes placing orders based on a graphic representation of the values of price/volume?

Are you implying that every successful automated trading program is based on something other than price and/or volume?

Good point, NoD. Any computer algo uses TA by definition, because I've never heard of algos which would interpret fundamental data and make trading decisions with precise timing based upon it.