I Hate Reversals
- Thread starter fordewind
- Start date
The trade didn`t go bad, i made it even.And i`m not asking for help, i was just asking what others may use at a similar situation(guts, news, trees, flowers, etc...), out of curiosity.
You have a very poor reading comprehension.You couldn`t even get the point of the thread.
Please, not this again...Im not asking what i should do.What YOU personally would`ve looked at in that particular case.I posted the charts, you can take the one with the right portion cut and annotate, if you wish.
Historical backtesting have a really low value if you ask me.
Here is my take on it. What you are calling a reversal from a short to long position is not a reversal play for me. However, it is a long entry, for sure. We could just call it semantics as you were reversing from short to long. I would not have been short but I would have gone long where you did and here is why.
To the far left we have a downtrend that was reversed (see green box) by quite a distance showing buying pressure with follow through. Then we have some sideways movement in the form of a triangle. In this sideways movement we maintain higher lows. A triangle is BO mode. The odds favor a bull BO as context supports a probable bull BO not a bear bo of the triangle. And the triangle is ascending. Once the bull BO occurs there is a sequence of 5 bull bars(a micro channel) then a pb. Notice the Pb stays above the B.O. point (see thin narrow green box). That is, there is a GAP between the bottom of this first PB after the BO of the ascending triangle. That simply means there is still buying pressure. Then as the PB begins to end we have a H1 (high1) which is the first bar in the pb that makes a high above the previous bar. This is my first long entry. However, I would probably not take that long entry because the BO of the triangle was not that strong. I would wait for a second or even a third entry. The bull bar label H2 (i.e. the biggest bull bar in your second circle) would be my entry once it trades 1 or 2 ticks above the previous bar (also a bull bar) as for me that signals the PB is most likely ending and the BO is most likely resuming for at least 1 or 2 more legs up. So, this is why I would go long at the area you reversed from short to long. Hope this helps.
In short CONTEXT SUPPORT LONG ENTRY IN THE AREA OF YOUR SECOND CIRCLE, SECOND PRICE FORMED A TRADABLE TRIANGLE PATTERN, SUPPORT IN PATTERN HOLDING, BO BULL SEQUENCE OF BARS, PB LOW HOLDS ABOVE ABOVE BO POINT, AND TWO LONG ENTRIES. MY STOPLOSS WOULD BE THE BO POINT OF THE TRIANGLE OR THE BOTTOM OF THE TRIANGLE BELOW YOUR FIRST CIRCLE IF I WAS FEELING GIDDY FOR THE DAY.
To the far left we have a downtrend that was reversed (see green box) by quite a distance showing buying pressure with follow through. Then we have some sideways movement in the form of a triangle. In this sideways movement we maintain higher lows. A triangle is BO mode. The odds favor a bull BO as context supports a probable bull BO not a bear bo of the triangle. And the triangle is ascending. Once the bull BO occurs there is a sequence of 5 bull bars(a micro channel) then a pb. Notice the Pb stays above the B.O. point (see thin narrow green box). That is, there is a GAP between the bottom of this first PB after the BO of the ascending triangle. That simply means there is still buying pressure. Then as the PB begins to end we have a H1 (high1) which is the first bar in the pb that makes a high above the previous bar. This is my first long entry. However, I would probably not take that long entry because the BO of the triangle was not that strong. I would wait for a second or even a third entry. The bull bar label H2 (i.e. the biggest bull bar in your second circle) would be my entry once it trades 1 or 2 ticks above the previous bar (also a bull bar) as for me that signals the PB is most likely ending and the BO is most likely resuming for at least 1 or 2 more legs up. So, this is why I would go long at the area you reversed from short to long. Hope this helps.
In short CONTEXT SUPPORT LONG ENTRY IN THE AREA OF YOUR SECOND CIRCLE, SECOND PRICE FORMED A TRADABLE TRIANGLE PATTERN, SUPPORT IN PATTERN HOLDING, BO BULL SEQUENCE OF BARS, PB LOW HOLDS ABOVE ABOVE BO POINT, AND TWO LONG ENTRIES. MY STOPLOSS WOULD BE THE BO POINT OF THE TRIANGLE OR THE BOTTOM OF THE TRIANGLE BELOW YOUR FIRST CIRCLE IF I WAS FEELING GIDDY FOR THE DAY.
Last edited:
Kinda through the thick and thin.But that`s cool, alright.
I don't trade European Futures but I was able to grab a freebie from Barchart - which shows fibs levels 38.2% and 50% (yeah heard it all before that 50% is not a fib and many think they are bogus) right at - prior support turned to resistance - which is the more important factor to me. Like I said previously once broken was the time to go with the failure.
Ha, ha, ha! LMAO!
Pay me a quarter of a billion EUR and I will tell you the "secret sauce" of reversals in the German Dax market.