I Hate Reversals

[tomorton]

View attachment 186848 View attachment 186849

Ok, there are two charts attached.Your thoughts, please?Why you pick one over the other?

I can't see that there's a TA reason to short at 4pm on this day. The main action, as is common with indices and stocks, has already taken place early in the day and there's been the usual reaction move, and then price drifts along in the afternoon as it often does. I wouldn't have expected price to rise the way it did into the European close and beyond. I wouldn't have traded this chart at all in the afternoon.

But what I would have done is irrelevant, what's important is for you to understand either the TA or your strategy better or both. To do that, you have come onto the forum but only showed what you did and asked why you were wrong. Actually, without knowing the strategy, nobody could say you were wrong as such, it might simply be that your strategy has a 99% win rate and this trade was in the 1% of losers.

 

[fordewind]

I can't see that there's a TA reason to short at 4pm on this day. The main action, as is common with indices and stocks, has already taken place early in the day and there's been the usual reaction move, and then price drifts along in the afternoon as it often does. I wouldn't have expected price to rise the way it did into the European close and beyond. I wouldn't have traded this chart at all in the afternoon.

But what I would have done is irrelevant, what's important is for you to understand either the TA or your strategy better or both. To do that, you have come onto the forum but only showed what you did and asked why you were wrong. Actually, without knowing the strategy, nobody could say you were wrong as such, it might simply be that your strategy has a 99% win rate and this trade was in the 1% of losers.

Second paragraph.Again, learn to read.I didn`t ask WHY i was wrong.

But i agree with the first paragraph.It was a noon trade and after that it was stretching on some insider non farm news, perhaps.

 

[TDMA]

I can't resist, trend trading is 10x more efficient than daytrading, and countertrend is 10x more efficient than trend trading, countertrend netting 100x profit to effort over daytrading.

So why the stress, because if you miss even one anomaly you will evaporate your capital, countertrend is the equivalent to 100x leverage for a daytrader, with futures and forex, plus a dash of crypto, those are spectacular returns because it's leverage on leverage.

Get it wrong, well you just don't want to do that, my speciality, countertrend, but here's the fun part, countertrend can trade trend, and also daytrade, it doesn't work the other way around. So when your countertrend goes wrong you have to spend 10x to 100x the effort to neutralise it to zero without a profit in sight.

And if you're really good, you can countertrend trade on different timeframes via the same asset in different directions, but we'll leave my short timeframe countertrend 25% of account long dow profit this week alone while waiting for the longer timeframe short countertrend dow trade to come online.

 

[trader99]

So, as the image suggest, i went short 10 DAX CFDs.An hour or so later i reversed and another hour later made it even.I hate reversal as it can always go the opposite direction and whipsaw you.Normally, i just exit.But in that case, i was looking nothing at but my guts.

What do you guys normally look at to make that reversal decision?

View attachment 186838

I think your reverse to long position from short is good. So, what's your complain?

However, I think your initial short position is not optimal. At least I would have not shorted it there...

 

[fordewind]

I think your reverse to long position from short is good. So, what's your complain?

However, I think your initial short position is not optimal. At least I would have not shorted it there...

Complain..just like i said, 9 out of 10 such reversal will whipsaw you.

 

[Xela]

I can't resist, trend trading is 10x more efficient than daytrading

This is just a category error: daytrading and trend-trading are neither counterparts nor opposites; all my own trading is daytrading and almost all of it is trend-trading, too.

 

[tomorton]

Second paragraph.Again, learn to read.I didn`t ask WHY i was wrong.

But i agree with the first paragraph.It was a noon trade and after that it was stretching on some insider non farm news, perhaps.

For someone who pops up looking for guidance on a trade gone bad, you've certainly got a chippy attitude.

 

[fordewind]

For someone who pops up looking for guidance on a trade gone bad, you've certainly got a chippy attitude.

You are realy an idiot or pretend to be one.Which one is it?

 

[tomorton]

You are realy an idiot or pretend to be one.Which one is it?

I don't understand your attitude. You're the one who was asking for help. I suggested it was possible you didn't have a clear strategy in mind when you took the trade. Nevertheless, I pointed out that there was TA that supported the trade you took and I asked for more on your strategy. I even said I wouldn't have expected the price rise that hit your position. I said nobody could have said you were wrong without knowing more about your strategy. Apparently, all this attempt at exploring what happened and why is not to your satisfaction.

I may be an idiot, but I'm not so stupid as to think I can help you.

 

[speedo]

I presume you were looking short prior resistance but as it looks like a bottom was in and price was consolidating for a breakout, I would have been looking for a long pivot entry. The long was of course good as a trend was well established. As to your question, if I have a valid signal, I like to have the trade play out and my first instinct given a failure is to see if there is a valid re-entry before I consider a reversal which would require a fresh signal in the opposite direction. If I have several losses a row, I am looking to see if price has started to consolidate and if so, I want to wait for resumption of directional momentum.