I Had To Do It: Poll - Who Thinks A Crash Is Near (1-4 months)?

[efficiency]

Quote from Maverick74:

Let me help you guys out. As of today, the DIA is hard to borrow as is the QQQQ's. There is only 4.3 million shares left to borrow of the SPY. Let me translate this for everyone. The entire world is short. I'll let you guys fill in the blank what it means when the entire crowd is on the same side of the trade. Good luck shorts. What is obvious, is obviously wrong.

4900 posts and your translations aren't of much "help". As for "obvious", it sure the hell isn't "the entire world is short".

The "hard to borrow" tickers you cited are ETF's. They are instruments reflecting baskets of the underlying stocks, NOT............. the underlying stocks. The majority of EACH of those stocks is NOT floating supply. Stated another way long. VERY LONG. Reinforces the "entire world" is not short.

As for hard to borrow ETF's., hinges upon your broker. Each is liquid enough there should be some to scrounge. Nope, a mousehouse isn't going to call around, but they'll make sure you get your 5 free trades.

Yes, a high short interest is "an" ingredient for rocket fuel, but squeezes aren't automatic, just identified prey. Specialist (yes thee specialist pertains to both DIA and SPY underlying issues) has his own agenda as to price objectives to benefit HIS segregated accounts. Separate and distinct from the utopian fair and orderly market. Joe Sixpack's profits (or losses) are merely a by-product. I put losses in parentheses because Wall Street's function is to SELL paper. Hence an upward bias. Naturally, many confuse their profits with brains. Me? I'm confusing your frequency of posts with profits.

You seem to have this all or none conception of either short OR long as a permanent state. It's not. The "hedge" in hedge funds, in theory, pertains to having BOTH long and short positions simultaneously. I can assure you the specialist is both long and SHORT in his stocks at various points virtually each and every day. At his post, he's an elevator operator to solve his inventory needs.

A crash is an orchestrated event. To induce, not a response.

Right or WRONG is merely a by-product of attempts at profit extraction. To reiterate, the entire world isn't short, and luck is a four letter word. I can think of a few others.

 

[momoneythansens]

Quote from efficiency:

4900 posts and your translations aren't of much "help". As for "obvious", it sure the hell isn't "the entire world is short".

This should be good. I've got ring-side seats.

 

[Restricted]

Meeeeeoowwwwwrrrr!!!

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from momoneythansens:

This should be good. I've got ring-side seats.

What makes me angry is I will not get that minute back of my life that I spent reading that post. And that is a tragedy. On the plus side, next time I have trouble sleeping and I need something to knock me out, I'll turn to efficiency's post to do the trick. In the meantime, we can all enjoy the screams coming out of his account as his short position continues to go against him. See, life is a series of tradeoffs.

 

[efficiency]

Quote from Maverick74:

What makes me angry is I will not get that minute back of my life that I spent reading that post. And that is a tragedy. On the plus side, next time I have trouble sleeping and I need something to knock me out, I'll turn to efficiency's post to do the trick. In the meantime, we can all enjoy the screams coming out of his account as his short position continues to go against him. See, life is a series of tradeoffs.

I have long AND short postions, that's plural, at any point in time. The idea is to extract profit rather than solve an identity crisis. And.............you don't see verbal diahria spewing in 100 post chunks.

You know what I mean?

Sure you do.

Entire world short? Only in your head.

Let's see MORE perma-bullshit.

 

[krazykarl]

Quote from efficiency:

4900 posts and your translations aren't of much "help". As for "obvious", it sure the hell isn't "the entire world is short".

The "hard to borrow" tickers you cited are ETF's. They are instruments reflecting baskets of the underlying stocks, NOT............. the underlying stocks. The majority of EACH of those stocks is NOT floating supply. Stated another way long. VERY LONG. Reinforces the "entire world" is not short.

As for hard to borrow ETF's., hinges upon your broker. Each is liquid enough there should be some to scrounge. Nope, a mousehouse isn't going to call around, but they'll make sure you get your 5 free trades.

Yes, a high short interest is "an" ingredient for rocket fuel, but squeezes aren't automatic, just identified prey. Specialist (yes thee specialist pertains to both DIA and SPY underlying issues) has his own agenda as to price objectives to benefit HIS segregated accounts. Separate and distinct from the utopian fair and orderly market. Joe Sixpack's profits (or losses) are merely a by-product. I put losses in parentheses because Wall Street's function is to SELL paper. Hence an upward bias. Naturally, many confuse their profits with brains. Me? I'm confusing your frequency of posts with profits.

You seem to have this all or none conception of either short OR long as a permanent state. It's not. The "hedge" in hedge funds, in theory, pertains to having BOTH long and short positions simultaneously. I can assure you the specialist is both long and SHORT in his stocks at various points virtually each and every day. At his post, he's an elevator operator to solve his inventory needs.

A crash is an orchestrated event. To induce, not a response.

Right or WRONG is merely a by-product of attempts at profit extraction. To reiterate, the entire world isn't short, and luck is a four letter word. I can think of a few others.

Sigh. A few quibs:

-Nasdaq, and the Qs, do not have specialiasts, so no one is trying to work over joe sixpack who is trading them.

-The SPYs represent a lot of the cash market, and the NASDAQ stocks that are in the index. Again - no specialists so _less_ manipulation.


Focus on the fact the Qs are hard to get right now. The whole world is short. Goldman is hella short right now. Up until 12 days ago there was nothing but bears running around - spewing their garbage about how the sky was/is falling. Sentiment was overwellmingly bearish - and look, even the king short - Herg Greenberg's best argument lately is that "this is not right! bad companies are being bought for no reason! people are crazy! we should be going down!"

bleh.


If we do not correct soon, expect Goldman to miss in the next few quarters. There's your short.

 

[efficiency]

Quote from krazykarl:

Sigh. A few quibs:

-Nasdaq, and the Qs, do not have specialiasts, so no one is trying to work over joe sixpack who is trading them.

-The SPYs represent a lot of the cash market, and the NASDAQ stocks that are in the index. Again - no specialists so _less_ manipulation.


Focus on the fact the Qs are hard to get right now. The whole world is short. Goldman is hella short right now. Up until 12 days ago there was nothing but bears running around - spewing their garbage about how the sky was/is falling. Sentiment was overwellmingly bearish - and look, even the king short - Herg Greenberg's best argument lately is that "this is not right! bad companies are being bought for no reason! people are crazy! we should be going down!"

bleh.


If we do not correct soon, expect Goldman to miss in the next few quarters. There's your short.

ETF's are Amex specialists.

Army of specialists merchandising EACH of the underlying stocks to their benefit.

QQQQ's ATR at 58 cents, isn't worth messing with. A spider's ATR is presently $1.04, but with a $135 price is a scant .77%.

Do you even know what floating supply refers to?

Manipulation is a broad brush generic term. ALL stocks are manipulated in one form or another to varying degrees. Opening gap is the most basic.

I only short stocks I follow. GSCO isn't on the........eh..........list. 12 days in a row? At 6 consecutive, probabilities were miniscule. Perfect example of manipulation. Good reason NOT to short it.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from efficiency:

I have long AND short postions, that's plural, at any point in time. The idea is to extract profit rather than solve an identity crisis. And.............you don't see verbal diahria spewing in 100 post chunks.

You know what I mean?

Sure you do.

Entire world short? Only in your head.

Let's see MORE perma-bullshit.

Perma-bull? OMG. Please, I have close to 5k posts. Please link me to 5 posts out of 5k where started a thread or cheerleaded from the long side. You won't be able to. Other then a jest here and there making fun of the shorts, you won't see me making any calls LONG or SHORT!. I just find it funny when all of ET gets short expecting the end of the world and we rally to new all time highs. Correction, I find it hilarious, not funny.

 

[efficiency]

Quote from Maverick74:

Perma-bull? OMG. Please, I have close to 5k posts. Please link me to 5 posts out of 5k where started a thread or cheerleaded from the long side. You won't be able to. Other then a jest here and there making fun of the shorts, you won't see me making any calls LONG or SHORT!. I just find it funny when all of ET gets short expecting the end of the world and we rally to new all time highs. Correction, I find it hilarious, not funny.

Why is it YOU remind me of a padded bra? Why would I want to dink with even (5) of your massive 5,000 posts?

You only have new highs in a 30 stock index. And only a hand full of the components trending (masking others).

That of course is in nominal terms. Adjusted for inflation, not even close. (Don't confuse that with cloze).

When you get ANY of the following: the Transports, the Russell or the S&P, then spout. NASDAQ, not even an issue.

 

[Maverick74]

Quote from efficiency:

Why is it YOU remind me of a padded bra? Why would I want to dink with even (5) of your massive 5,000 posts?

You only have new highs in a 30 stock index. And only a hand full of the components trending (masking others).

That of course is in nominal terms. Adjusted for inflation, not even close. (Don't confuse that with cloze).

When you get ANY of the following: the Transports, the Russell or the S&P, then spout. NASDAQ, not even an issue.

Hey Einstein, ever heard of the NYSE composite? Yeah it's this little index that includes every listed stock on the NYSE. Let me repeat that, IT INCLUDES EVERY LISTED STOCK ON THE NYSE. LOL. Well, that little rinky dink index is just ticks away from making a new all time high. So go chew on that Mr. Efficiency. And I could give a shit less if this market goes higher or lower. I find your desperate short rants amusing and at the end of the day, that's all that matters. Pure entertainment. Why don't give me some elliot wave analysis or gann lines to look at. LOL.