I Got this one wrong guys.....

[Max E.]

Hey guys, Ill be the first to admit how DEAD WRONG, i was shorting against the lows.....

But this is the ultimate short in history, fuck it I will go down with this one if I'm wrong, but there is literally zero chance the market hits all time highs with the entire world in a great depression..... 14.7 unemployment, negative 30% GDP, no fucking way this thing hits all time highs on those numbers.

Im betting again hard against the market here, and betting there is no hope in hell we hit all time highs.

I will lose another gigantic chunk of my account if the ES hits new highs within the year but it wont happen, that's the way I'm, betting. I have been getting beating up pretty hard being short, but this cant happen, this would signal a total failure of the entire market system if the market clears the highs here.

 

[Max E.]

Here is what i mean by this, the amount of overhead resistance sitting on the market, is the ultimate short, this is the easiest move in history., I will keep adding to 340 on this one on the SPY's. resistance, on top of the 200 day, on top of an overheated market,on top of brutal economic numbers....... this is the ultimate short. Im trading it a little differently, but I'm trading based on the market crashing off the 200 day.

 

[SteveM]

OP, honestly ask yourself an important question:

You’ve already lost $250k recently trying this same exact trade....are you doing it again because it is your best idea, or are you doing it because your ego wants to exact revenge on “them” for taking your money?

Also, what if things start to re-open, and laid off workers get recalled quicker than expected? Then our “worst unemployment since the depression” narrative becomes “most furloughed employees returning to workforce in US history.”

Add in the macro data flipping back up and couple it with the most accomadative Federal Reserve policy in US history, and shorts could have a major problem on their hands.

Not saying I am right about any of these speculations - just remember there is always someone on the other side of your trade.

 

[Max E.]

Those are questions i have thought about, thank you for the response, there is no way that even in the best case scenario, the economy gets back to all time highs.... we are looking at shaving 30 percent of everything regardless of the starttime, so how is the move in the stock market possible?

This move assumes we get right back to business as usual, something that isn't possible....

Im betting against the highs, I've been wrong before big time, so it would be wrong to simply think i got it, but this time I'm not wrong.... i don't see how this market can possibly keep going.

If I'm wrong, then everything we have been taught about economics doesn't make sense..... this market has to top. Otherwise its just a matter of printing your way to new highs.

 

[wrbtrader]

Those are questions i have thought about, thank you for the response, there is no way that even in the best case scenario, the economy gets back to all time highs.... we are looking at shaving 30 percent of everything regardless of the starttime, so how is the move in the stock market possible?

This move assumes we get right back to business as usual, something that isn't possible....

Im betting against the highs, I've been wrong before big time, so it would be wrong to simply think i got it, but this time I'm not wrong.... i don't see how this market can possibly keep going.

If I'm wrong, then everything we have been taught about economics doesn't make sense..... this market has to top. Otherwise its just a matter of printing your way to new highs.

The prior trade failure, you were trading some moving average crossover and than continue adding to the losing position while the FED was dumping money into the economy.

This time around, there's no moving average crossover and it seems like his trade is purely economics ?

Max E...please correct me if I'm wrong.

wrbtrader

 

[ktmtrader]

Those are questions i have thought about, thank you for the response, there is no way that even in the best case scenario, the economy gets back to all time highs.... we are looking at shaving 30 percent of everything regardless of the starttime, so how is the move in the stock market possible?

This move assumes we get right back to business as usual, something that isn't possible....

Im betting against the highs, I've been wrong before big time, so it would be wrong to simply think i got it, but this time I'm not wrong.... i don't see how this market can possibly keep going.

If I'm wrong, then everything we have been taught about economics doesn't make sense..... this market has to top. Otherwise its just a matter of printing your way to new highs.

Max,

Lighten your position. Seriously. Lighten it up.

Why are you trying to make it all back in one trade?

Don't you want to be trading 20/30 years from now?

Don't you enjoy trading to be an enjoyable activity?

Don't you like seeing your method working over the long term as you steadily grow your equity?

You think guys like Paul Tudor Jones, Louis Bacon, Michael Marcus, Bruce Kovner, Helmut Weymar from Commodity Corporation went balls to the wall on their position sizing?

They all started as rookie traders and learned to trade small and became legends.

Why are you trying to blow yourself up?

Be a trader man, not a gambler.

Do not go against the laws of nature.

 

[vincentnyc]

OP: Another rule when trading is there is no sure thing in the market. How much did you bet this time? Let’s revisit this thread to see if you lose big or win big 6 months from today 5/20/20.

 

[LoneStarTrader]

Appreciate your candor, Max E. Sharing this experience and your thoughts are beneficial to many.

...Im betting again hard against the market here, and betting there is no hope in hell we hit all time highs...

This sounds like gambling or an emotional trade.

Im going back to what i knew to begin with, just grinding it out a thousand or two thousand bucks a day.....Hoping to hit the high water mark again a year from now....... Its definitely going to be a process. This one humbled me.

This sounds like a logical plan that makes sense.

LST

 

[SteveM]

You think guys like Paul Tudor Jones, Louis Bacon, Michael Marcus, Bruce Kovner, Helmut Weymar from Commodity Corporation went balls to the wall on their position sizing?

They all started as rookie traders and learned to trade small and became legends.

Both Tudor Jones and Marcus blew up multiple times......many of us have to learn the hard way regarding position sizing.

 

[Max E.]

The prior trade failure, you were trading some moving average crossover and than continue adding to the losing position while the FED was dumping money into the economy.

This time around, there's no moving average crossover and it seems like his trade is purely economics ?

Max E...please correct me if I'm wrong.

wrbtrader

Never traded any MA cross over, Its purely intuition, there is a couple numbers i follow closely though, the 200 day and the 50..... Im not a piker, I have been grinding a living out of the market for 15 years.