I Got this one wrong guys.....

[Specterx]

Thats the thing.....I learned nothing.... if anything I want to short the market even harder.... Im So angry at what I did..... but I see an opportunity I wont see for a long long time....

Sorry to hear about your loss. I'm not sure if the loss was a material percentage of your account, but if so you should consider implementing much stricter risk controls and far lower sizing. It only takes one bad trade to end a career, and wipe out a whole lifetime of effort.

Several years ago I stopped shorting individual equities entirely and almost never short index futures, only very rarely and tactically - it was costing me money on net, and aside from all the usual disadvantages of shorting, the payoff just isn't there with the Fed on the other side of the trade.

 

[dozu888]

I'd switch charts off for a few weeks, as people are starting to think not fight it and go back to being Bull's and we all know what that means

no. Check the AAII sentiment. Clearly shows where the dumb money is.

 

[R1234]

No other way to describe it.

I fucked up.... I am willing to admit it.... I really blew it here...

I thought there was NO CHANCE the market could go up and i was wrong.... dead wrong.... to the tune of a quarter million bucks.... bad call on my part, but I'm willing to admit my mistake. Good Luck!!!!

Ouch. Hope you have a day job or a working spouse and hope you recover financially eventually.
I don't have a day job and my business is practically dried up so I am making preparations to rely solely on income from trading my personal savings from now on (gulp!)

 

[wrbtrader]

I was short all in...... long before the biggest bounce..... then i added and added and added... I got smoked...... Dead wrong!!! Fully willing to admit it.

This is the worst loss of my trading career.... i got no problems being honest about it.

Not sure what "all in" implies...hopefully it was just your trading capital and not something else you liquidated to add to your trading capital.

Was this a swing position or position hold you wanted to keep for several months because I can't imagine a day trader doing such ?

wrbtrader

 

[noddyboy]

No other way to describe it.

I fucked up.... I am willing to admit it.... I really blew it here...

I thought there was NO CHANCE the market could go up and i was wrong.... dead wrong.... to the tune of a quarter million bucks.... bad call on my part, but I'm willing to admit my mistake. Good Luck!!!!

Are you still holding through the long weekend?

 

[hafez50]

Max take solace that 95% of traders lose money. I say this board is bad for a lot of newer traders as it seems 95% make money which is bs .You'd think everyone's killing it.

 

[dozu888]

Max take solace that 95% of traders lose money. I say this board is bad for a lot of newer traders as it seems 95% make money which is bs .You'd think everyone's killing it.

you can bet that 95% LOSE money here. just based on how people think... people are all the same.

 

[MKTrader]

No other way to describe it.

I fucked up.... I am willing to admit it.... I really blew it here...

I thought there was NO CHANCE the market could go up and i was wrong.... dead wrong.... to the tune of a quarter million bucks.... bad call on my part, but I'm willing to admit my mistake. Good Luck!!!!

Kudos for being honest...unlike many of the other permabears here still in denial.

 

[Max E.]

Hindsight is 20/20 but I wasn't willing to get short a market with a fed that is willing to put QE infinity out.

I think your call short is right in general. It's hard to get any read when the fed will just continue to pump cash to the detriment of Americans in order to keep the market high. Don't say you're wrong. You just missed something. Consider the fallout of the following things:

1. Unemployment just hit 10% nationally (it's probably actually double this if you consider how many people will not return to work)
2. A full quarantine is still in effect in almost every state in the US
3. Businesses are furloughing employees left and right
4. SA and Russia are still at odds
5. Huge inflationary and deflationary risk as the fed pumps more cash. Deflation might even be more likely because any stimulus to individuals will be hoarded and the aftermath of this will likely change people's opinions about spending a lot of money. Moreover consumer demand will probably sink for a while.
6. Increased taxes for each QE event

What will this translate to?

1. Poor earnings - I don't believe this is priced in
2. Companies going bankrupt - spin off opportunity or M&A?
3. Low market participation because people are going to be cashing out their retirements for food money if this gets any worse.

What are the interventions that are masking this?

Wow, Thank you Guassian, I really appreciate what you have said here.....Laying it all out like that is incredibly admirable. Reading down the list at least gave me some semblance of realirty.



As a result I'm buying any significant dip. There's no reason to short yet with the market being artificially propped up. You're not wrong. The market is wrong. I'm just picking up good stocks and ETFs for my retirement. I'm waiting to short in my gambling account.

Great Post, sorry i didn't see it sooner.

 

[schizo]

I learned nothing.... if anything I want to short the market even harder.... Im So angry at what I did..... but I see an opportunity I wont see for a long long time....

Did you by chance lose a shitload of money in 2008 by going LONG? And now you want to take revenge by going SHORT? Well, there's your problem. You're compulsive-obssessive.

What do you mean by "an opportunity I wont see for a long long time"?

There will be plenty of opportunities in the future. Market crashes happen nearly every 10 years with some steep corrections in between. But you know what? Markets tend to rise more than it falls. So just go with the flow. That's the ultimate recipe for success.