You may be right but your time frame not long enough? Could not hold a short in this market with such wild swings waiting to be right perhaps. Who knows but when the government steps in to prop the market up all bets are off for shorts I think. have to wait and see if another shoe drops or news keeps getting less bad.
I Got this one wrong guys.....
- Thread starter Max E.
- Start date
You may be right but your time frame not long enough? Could not hold a short in this market with such wild swings waiting to be right perhaps. Who knows but when the government steps in to prop the market up all bets are off for shorts I think. have to wait and see if another shoe drops or news keeps getting less bad.
Old adage buy into bad news, sell into good played out on this one. However, I believe a short play here is still the right play. We haven't yet seen the real effects of the world taking a time out and the impact it will have on the markets. I believe that one will be playing out for sometime. I am also watching actual real estate prices and inventory as well. Once people start losing equity the market will surely follow.. Especially those sectors impacted by that. Just my two cents..
Max... we are all thinking long term there will be a massive recession and this market will crack.
We all know it should.
But, the Fed is making the dollar worthless and probably buying the market or giving out money to those who can't have it crack yet.
The FED can make the timing almost impossible to discern.
The best bet is that the fed will do what it can to stay in business. They can create trillions with keystrokes. They could in theory buy the entire US stock market and not report it to congress for a long time.
So for now fundamentals may not matter... we have to trade around or with the FED.
I am not saying don't short. I am saying you must be OK with being wrong.
We all know it should.
But, the Fed is making the dollar worthless and probably buying the market or giving out money to those who can't have it crack yet.
The FED can make the timing almost impossible to discern.
The best bet is that the fed will do what it can to stay in business. They can create trillions with keystrokes. They could in theory buy the entire US stock market and not report it to congress for a long time.
So for now fundamentals may not matter... we have to trade around or with the FED.
I am not saying don't short. I am saying you must be OK with being wrong.
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They have made it explicit that they are willing to print more dollars than we have..... The Fed is the most consistent body in history.... they never miss.... Its the same thing every time.....
If you had to guess as to whether or not the FED was going to print dollars wat would your guess be?
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Best sector to short poll:
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/opinions-wanted-what-will-be-the-best-sector-to-short.342994/
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/opinions-wanted-what-will-be-the-best-sector-to-short.342994/
people....please, listen to this master right here..
there are so much noise in this space... you want to listen to the guy who has ACTUALLY MADE IT BIG.
I have explained everything, in detail, play by play, thru the past couple of months.
losing money is painful.... but losing money due to stupidity and without learning a lesson, that is the worst and may very well be the end of your career in stocks.
do yourself a favor... study.
there are so much noise in this space... you want to listen to the guy who has ACTUALLY MADE IT BIG.
I have explained everything, in detail, play by play, thru the past couple of months.
losing money is painful.... but losing money due to stupidity and without learning a lesson, that is the worst and may very well be the end of your career in stocks.
do yourself a favor... study.
No other way to describe it.
I fucked up.... I am willing to admit it.... I really blew it here...
I thought there was NO CHANCE the market could go up and i was wrong.... dead wrong.... to the tune of a quarter million bucks.... bad call on my part, but I'm willing to admit my mistake. Good Luck!!!!
Hindsight is 20/20 but I wasn't willing to get short a market with a fed that is willing to put QE infinity out.
I think your call short is right in general. It's hard to get any read when the fed will just continue to pump cash to the detriment of Americans in order to keep the market high. Don't say you're wrong. You just missed something. Consider the fallout of the following things:
1. Unemployment just hit 10% nationally (it's probably actually double this if you consider how many people will not return to work)
2. A full quarantine is still in effect in almost every state in the US
3. Businesses are furloughing employees left and right
4. SA and Russia are still at odds
5. Huge inflationary and deflationary risk as the fed pumps more cash. Deflation might even be more likely because any stimulus to individuals will be hoarded and the aftermath of this will likely change people's opinions about spending a lot of money. Moreover consumer demand will probably sink for a while.
6. Increased taxes for each QE event
What will this translate to?
1. Poor earnings - I don't believe this is priced in
2. Companies going bankrupt - spin off opportunity or M&A?
3. Low market participation because people are going to be cashing out their retirements for food money if this gets any worse.
What are the interventions that are masking this?
1. QE infinity
2. Trump pump
As a result I'm buying any significant dip. There's no reason to short yet with the market being artificially propped up. You're not wrong. The market is wrong. I'm just picking up good stocks and ETFs for my retirement. I'm waiting to short in my gambling account.