I got it!.....I lost it...The search for consistency.

[cipherscribe]

JB3.

Your right, and I have been doing just what you have been suggesting. Steenbarger also talks about this at length - find your own thing, and explore different methods until something clicks.

Obviously there are multiple methods that work, its just a matter of finding the thing that works for you, and Steenbargers way of exploring as seen as a method of 'play' has been quite useful. Looking at it this way suggests that if it emotionally hurts to trade in a particular way, then its probably not for you. Suggesting to try different things that may have been discounted in the past without fully exploring them has been helpful.

Thank you also for the idea about re-defining the concept of 'edge'.

 

[masterm1ne]

It is not always looking at a chart.

Short either test of the demand line (or previous swing high), esp where those buyers get trapped @ 34. Even better short @ 36 using a smaller bull trendline.

 

[smallStops]

do you mind plotting the smaller trendline, for clarity purposes?

 

[masterm1ne]

Once you can read price well enough, you will see the tests of the prior swing high (that didn't break the swing high) that happened in the two doji bars that printed (between 38 & 36). Those dojis were likely caused by buyers expecting another leg up at that or another bull trendline. However, the second doji demonstrated waning demand as it formed a second lower high and when there was a daily bar that closed at 36, a previous low was taken out. At that point well you can see what happened.

Every single reversal - and absolute best trade - looks like this.

 

[masterm1ne]

Look familiar?

 

[masterm1ne]

Read price = never lose your edge + $

 

[JB3]

Know your fundamentals, and you won't even need to look at a chart + $ + relax at the beach.

 

[masterm1ne]

Know your fundamentals, and you won't even need to look at a chart + $ + relax at the beach.

lol... So yes... either look at the chart or study fundies (ie have a plan) and either way sit on the beach + $. Hopefully the minibar has Wifi for beach sharks.

 

[marketdecoder]

Hi cipherscribe,
please allow me to add some insight into your search for consistency (based on technical chart) which is also my primary goal to make it in this trading biz. During my R&D period, i found that you can not get consistency by looking at 1 chart alone . It is like you are looking at the earth alone without knowing what sun it is spinning around to know when it is day/night(short term)spring,summer,fall, winter(long term) that lead to the effect of weather hot / cold on earth. One same Thing on earth will react different on hot and cold weather in term of contract and expansion, and this hot/cold is what you must recognize to see how it is changed on Earth (your current pattern recognition). In short, if weather is hot, you must know how that will affect your pattern on earth, if the weather is cold ,again how that will affect the pattern on earth. The sun is what regulate this hot/cold with respect to where the earth is as it orbit the sun, not the earth . This is your missing ingredient. There is more that you must put more brainstorming into (such as the sun should not be too far, nor too close to earth, but for 1 earth only choose 1 sun as rule of thumb), but you should start toward this direction .

THe consistency may short live in the timeframe of the 2 chart, but it is there within that TIMEFRAME. Just look at the universe, it is vast and chaotic, but when you zoom into the earth sun combination, you get consistent day/night/ 24h/ and hot cold within consistent recognizable range and the sun effect on Earth .

Your 20 years of searching for consistency, in my opinion, will improve once you can spot the missing ingredient (via this combination) to gain consistency.

 

[masterm1ne]

During my R&D period, i found that you can not get consistency by looking at 1 chart alone .

I agree. Although your analogy is as vast as the universe, I would have just said looking at multiple time frames helps see that price does the same thing every day, repeatedly. It only becomes clear once you objectify it, which is the point of indicators. It really just revolves around what losers are doing, since most traders are losers.

You can't avoid being a loser all the time, but you can avoid being a loser most of the time. The best loser is always the winner.