I got it!.....I lost it...The search for consistency.

[NoDoji]

I'll have to spend more time on this, but I will give you my first thoughts:

1. The premarket move could be a combination of an abc move where the subsequent Low is a higher low, followed by the DTL break. The context, I am not aware of, other than a reaction to the sell-off yesterday afternoon.

2. All I can see here is a DTOP from the overnight session, and 2 adjacent bars on the 1 minute chart also form a DTOP. Resistance here, although a 2 bar DTOP on a 1 minute chart is not something I would give great significance, but I could be wrong. Not entirely sure where the best entry point would be, since the UTL break is one third to halfway down the downward move. Perhaps there is a better entry.

The extra credit is the support found on the 18/3 and 19/3.

I am probably way off, but I appreciate the help.

1. The DTL (I assume you mean descending trend line) break is the signal. In the context of the orderly down channel, the break of that trend line sets up the context necessary for the foundation of a long trade. What happens between 9:22 and 9:25 (eastern time) to trigger a low risk entry?

2. What happens at the top is meaningless with regard to the break down later. Price is in a clear uptrend and we're not trying to pick a top. Until the common setup I have you hunting for appears, there's no reason to initiate a short position unless you're a counter-trend scalper. Something happens to cause the longs to throw in the towel and a short position initiated at that point results in a strong and significant move down. The fact that "it" happens "halfway" down (you only know that after the fact) doesn't mean it's a less-than-ideal entry; on the contrary, once a true reversal pattern sets up, the entry and the odds of a decent favorable move are ideal, because the old team is about to become weak (give back their profits if they don't start scaling out) and the new team is about to become aggressive and may even take full control.

What happens between 9:42 and 9:45 ET to trigger a low risk entry?

Once you understand this, you'll have a basic setup that produces a decent favorable move while allowing for a small stop loss more often than not (which is my definition of "edge"). (It's the identical setup for each move, by the way.)

Extra credit: You got it...support at the LTL across the lows of the 18th & 19th

 

[cipherscribe]

1. The DTL (I assume you mean descending trend line) break is the signal. In the context of the orderly down channel, the break of that trend line sets up the context necessary for the foundation of a long trade. What happens between 9:22 and 9:25 (eastern time) to trigger a low risk entry?

2. What happens at the top is meaningless with regard to the break down later. Price is in a clear uptrend and we're not trying to pick a top. Until the common setup I have you hunting for appears, there's no reason to initiate a short position unless you're a counter-trend scalper. Something happens to cause the longs to throw in the towel and a short position initiated at that point results in a strong and significant move down. The fact that "it" happens "halfway" down (you only know that after the fact) doesn't mean it's a less-than-ideal entry; on the contrary, once a true reversal pattern sets up, the entry and the odds of a decent favorable move are ideal, because the old team is about to become weak (give back their profits if they don't start scaling out) and the new team is about to become aggressive and may even take full control.

What happens between 9:42 and 9:45 ET to trigger a low risk entry?

Once you understand this, you'll have a basic setup that produces a decent favorable move while allowing for a small stop loss more often than not (which is my definition of "edge"). (It's the identical setup for each move, by the way.)

Extra credit: You got it...support at the LTL across the lows of the 18th & 19th

1. A 2 bar pullback - further confirmation that the TL has been broken (once price then continues upward)

2. Although the TL break occurs after some time, you are quite right to indicate that this can only been seen in retrospect, and I did not mean to imply that for this reason one cannot get a low-risk entry. Or perhaps I alluded to it since in my mind, the stop loss is always going to be at the previous high or low, and in this case I was thinking 3675. What I see between 9:42 and 9:45 is another pullback on the other side of the UTL. Is that right?

I have not traded a 1 minute chart, how many of these types of setups can one expect in a day?

You have been very generous ND, I thank you for all your help.

 

[NoDoji]

I have not traded a 1 minute chart, how many of these types of setups can one expect in a day?

You have been very generous ND, I thank you for all your help.

You're welcome!

This is basic textbook stuff. These core technical price action setups are treated by many here with derision because they're available in books and on web sites and so they can't possibly offer an edge (contempt before investigation). I've shared this sort of thing many times on ET and almost nobody studies and gets to experience the Aha! moment, though I've gotten PMs from at least a couple of folks who did.

I use a 1-min chart for precision entries with small stops because I'm a scalper, but I'm always focused on the 5-min chart for the basic view of who's in control and whether I want to look for long entries, short entries, or wait for clarity.

I'll leave you with the Hard Right Edge view of these two trades and you can study further and find out how many setups appear on average each day and whether there are filters for differentiating the powerful results from the fizzlers and failures.

 

[NoDoji]

And here's the short trade. (By the way, my charts are 3 hours earlier than eastern time.)

 

[achilles28]

Nice work ND

 

[dbphoenix]

And here's the short trade. (By the way, my charts are 3 hours earlier than eastern time.)

I know a guy who trades something like this. He calls it the SLA

Be that as it may, there is an even more aggressive short, shown here. If one tightens the line tracking the bars, he has to see that he's looking at an unsustainable move. Whether the result of this move will be a sideways pause prior to a continuation or a U-turn into a move downward remains to be seen. However, once the line is broken and price makes a lower swing high, not only can he suppose weakness, but he can draw a "supply line". When price again makes a swing high and that swing high fails to breach the supply line by more than a tick or two followed by a fast rejection, he can then place his short there, probably just below the bar at 3670. Those who enter later will help move price in his direction. Everybody wins.

 

[cipherscribe]

I went back to sim on Friday, and did better. Surprise Surprise! I am trying to find a setup/method that works with my personality, since I agree with the contributors here that refer to fallacy of success through copying the canned methods of others. I plan on testing forward, rather than back, as I agree with Dom, that looking at previous charts is useless for me, unless I plan on using the replay function so I cannot use hindsight to spot trends.

Previously I have been using breakouts with big targets as my primary goal. I find it extremely difficult to enter trades on pullbacks, for fear of catching a falling knife. But I read that that best trades are the ones that are the most difficult to enter. So with that in mind, I am going to trade pullbacks within a trend, but have targets of 2-3 points, instead of 5 or 10. I am also not great at entries, so I am going to allow myself to scale in 3 times, to secure a better entry as needed. Ultimately my goal will be to be to improve my entries to make scale-ins unnecessary. My stop loss will be a trend change in the form of a HH/LL, or if price descends below the 240 WMA.

I'm also going to use Bollinger Bands since I don't think I have the ability to tell when price has made a reasonable move away from the mean to provide a good entry point. I know this goes against strict PA only trading, but perhaps I can dispense of these crutches in due course.

The thing that resides in the back of my mind however, are the people who suggested that perhaps poor trading is attributable to a particular personality type, or greater issue in ones life. Green.Green's quote of Tom Waits struck a chord : "The way you do anything is the way you do everything". If this is true, then it really discounts changing your entry or exit criteria as a means to improve trading. It could also be stated that changing ones' behaviour outside of the trading arena to address this 'issue' would be as helpful as any changes to the trading strategy or tactics themselves. I have spent the weekend trying to find that 'issue', and certainly was not empty handed in coming up with faults. But perhaps its different for everyone, so there is no point highlighting mine here. But I plan on working on my perceived 'faults' outside of trading, and perhaps by doing so, it will help me to trade well.

 

[ammo]

i heard...maybe..... so if..... i.... me..... sounds like a preplan.... an assortment of brainstorming possibilities that need to go thru the wringer a few times .... you need to wipe the chalkboard and start with a clean slate
1 i me myself might as well be my big toe,the wax in my ear,the toe and the wax have no say,neither should the me,to get to that mute button,you have to get rid of all favorable and unfavorable thoughts about yourself,your earwax, you also have to mute all those thoughts that you think others have of you ,favorable and unfavorable,again they are just earwax
i do the forgive my tresspass, their trespass thing and believe in a higher power,one judge,so the earwax trick is a lot easier
if everyone did this, shrinks would be out of business

2 3 4 n 5 get a lot easier after that,you just look at the charts ,notice the supports and resistance same way you see medians,lanes and fences while driving down the interstate and trade the same way you drive,keep the acct on the road

 

[NoDoji]

I find it extremely difficult to enter trades on pullbacks, for fear of catching a falling knife. But I read that that best trades are the ones that are the most difficult to enter. So with that in mind, I am going to trade pullbacks within a trend, but have targets of 2-3 points, instead of 5 or 10. I am also not great at entries, so I am going to allow myself to scale in 3 times, to secure a better entry as needed. Ultimately my goal will be to be to improve my entries to make scale-ins unnecessary.

Catching a falling knife is buying in a downtrend.

Buying a pullback in an uptrend can be done many ways, including scaling in; however, scaling in during the pullback is really only necessary if you're trading large size.

 

[dom993]

The thing that resides in the back of my mind however, are the people who suggested that perhaps poor trading is attributable to a particular personality type, or greater issue in ones life.

Poor trading is either:
- not having a trading plan with a "real" edge
- not executing that trading plan

What gets you into either of these conditions doesn't matter, what matters is:
1. doing the homework to get to a trading plan with a "real" edge
2. doing what it takes to execute the trading plan flawlessly

If your personality gets in the way of 1. or 2., blame it on your personality if you want, but that won't change what's required to finally become profitable.