Let me try this again:
Did you spend all this time following these people because you wanted to copy them? If so, what evidence did you have that any of them were consistently profitable?
Yes, I believed they were consistently profitable. I believe that in the search for becoming consistently profitable, I need to do research and study the methods of others, adapt them and make them your own. Spydertrader was trading stocks when I was trading stocks, had a method that I first copied and then adapted to an automated trading system. It did not work long term. Anekdoten was there when I wanted to lose the Indicators and just trade price. I thought perhaps copying his setups would teach me a method that worked for me. Trading the trend and following setups seemed a more reliable method than using indicators. The skills transfer obviously did not work, and I put that down to my incorrect identification of said setups or not trading every setup I see because of fear. FuturesTrader71 introduced me to Volume Profile, and perhaps I thought of it as the new shiny toy that would work for me. Not enough effort was spent on my part, so I attribute my failure in VP to not investing enough effort into the strategy.
And why are you afraid of being wrong?
Because I was brought up to believe that being wrong is bad. I think that I trade the markets to be right more than to make money. Being wrong is something I do not deal well with in any part of my life, and I guess I am like a lot of people in this way. Thatâs one of the troubles with the world. People caring too deeply about their own misconceptions because it would hurt too much to admit they are wrong. I wrote in my notes today that I want to trade the market to be right and to make money, but feel these are mutually exclusive most of the time. So what do I do to resolve this? Perhaps identify with being right about other aspects of trading - being right by âdoing the workâ, and creating a plan, rather than defining ârightâ as a winning trade, and âwrongâ as a losing trade.
Why do they have no structure?
Because they are not part of any written plan.
And why are you undisciplined?
Wow. Thatâs a toughy. Why does anyone stray from whatâs good for them? Smoking, Overeating, laziness. I am reasonably strict in other parts of my life. I run marathons, so that takes a lot of structure and discipline, I think. If I ran every day and showed no improvement, Iâd try other methods, perhaps in a sporadic, undisciplined way, before giving it away. If I had an edge, I donât believe Iâd be undisciplined at all. So my statement about being undisciplined is just a definition for trying a variety of untested methods. And I agree with NoDoji, that by doing so makes me a gambler, not a trader. I liked that smack in the head. To de disciplined is to stick to the plan. To stick with a plan, one needs to see progress.
And why after 20 years do you not have a plan, i.e., a thoroughly-tested and consistently-profitable plan?
I really thought about this question. Many times I thought I did have a consistently-profitable plan. Most times I only trade based on the rules I have written down. But when I thought about this question, I really think it comes down to having a belief that a consistently profitable plan is outside the realm of most retail traders. I have looked to find an edge (probably in all the wrong places) for years, and not found anything that panned out in Out of Sample testing. Another belief I need to eradicate.
And what do you plan to do to accomplish this? What is the first step you will (not plan to nor intend to) take?
I am going to quantify what I already have in terms of a trade setup. How often its profitable, what the MAE/MFE of each trade etc. Then I am going to look at the context of each setup and see if I can identify the conditions under which the setup behaves.
And what are the specifics of the way in which you are looking?
As stated above, my beliefs have perhaps prevented me from investing the amount of effort required to identify an edge. If I allow myself to fully research a particular setup, then perhaps I can allow myself to question my belief.
And what does this tell you about how caring affects your performance?
Good point. I know that caring about a trade costs a lot in terms of mental effort. When I donât care, I can trade for longer periods. Not caring comes back to no longer caring about being right or wrong, since I was wrong so many times, whatâs another one?
This isn't about putting new curtains in the windows because the foundation of your house is cracked and subsiding. The problems you're having with trading go far beyond trading itself.
Agreed.
