I got it!.....I lost it...The search for consistency.

cipherscribe said:
So today I entered a long at 46.25, 44.25, and 42.25. the price stopped me at 40.25.

I entered a short at 36, 38, and 39, then hit my profit target of 34...

edit: 39, not 49
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Why on earth did you do that? How are you determining when you're wrong?
 
NoDoji said:
What time were these trades? I can't make sense of it?

Also, on the short trade, why wouldn't your profit target have been at least a measured move of the move off the high? Why target the previous little low when you're shorting a pullback in a downtrend, meaning price is likely to make a lower low, not a double bottom as you'd expect in a range?
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Attached a pic for some clarity. Re your second question: Because I am an incompetent trader that is setting profit targets based on points..... :-(

Edit: I know about measured moves, but is that something you would recommend for someone struggling with the random wins of a gambling trader? :-)
 
dbphoenix said:
Why on earth did you do that? How are you determining when you're wrong?
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lol. Is it really that stupid? :-)

I am hopeless at entries. I am not entering on BO's, but today is clearly a day when doing so makes a great deal of sense.

when am I wrong? When price goes against me by x points.
 
cipherscribe said:
lol. Is it really that stupid? :-)

I am hopeless at entries. I am not entering on BO's, but today is clearly a day when doing so makes a great deal of sense.

when am I wrong? When price goes against me by x points.
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No, not stupid. But you appear to be continuing to enter long even though price is in a downtrend.

Starting over is difficult. And you're getting a lot of input here. You really ought to focus on just one voice.

Best of luck to you.
 
cipherscribe said:
Attached a pic for some clarity. Re your second question: Because I am an incompetent trader that is setting profit targets based on points..... :-(

Edit: I know about measured moves, but is that something you would recommend for someone struggling with the random wins of a gambling trader? :-)
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OK, so you're assuming the pullback will be a pullback and support (demand line) will hold. You don't have to do that; you're not trading massive size where you need to scale in on pullbacks and you're hedged and it's other people's money so who cares what happens as long as you don't lose more than your peers...

You can watch price pull back to the demand line and then use a buy stop to get long IF price hangs out there and doesn't close below it or break down altogether.

Look at a 1-min chart and connect the 9:44 low and the 10:02 low and notice how that LTL (demand line) is honored during the 10:08 bar and price makes a higher high.

So price then pulls back as is normal in a trend, but when it reaches the line it drops further and closes below it. The long trade is off the table for now. Wait for clarity. Price pulls back to the underside of the line during the 10:18 bar and breaks down further. Breakout Pullback (BOPB) short setup now in play.

And, yes, when you're shorting in a downtrend (as opposed to shorting in a range from the range extreme), your minimum expected result is a lower low, preferably a measured move if the context to the left of your entry indicates that possibility.
 
workwithus said:
A few suggestions.Stop all sim or live trading for now.Remove all indicators,volume,ema's,etc. on your chart.Don't use anything faster then a 1m chart (like a 500 tick chart).Focus only on one market and one chart.Nothing else.Do this for one week at a minimum.Forget about scaling in,targets,etc until you can read the market better.Make all the price bars one neutral color for now until you can focus on if the market is going up or down at a minimum on the chart in front of you.Just draw a demand(up) trendline in an uptrend or a supply(down) trendline in downtrend(see nodoji and db's chart examples).Notice how they wait for a break of a demand trendline and a LH before even anticipating the trend has changed. Fan the demand trendline if the market makes a new high soon after a break of the demand trendline.Once the market has follow thru down after a demand TL break and LH then look to draw a supply TL.Next watch for a break of the supply TL and a HL.Fan the supply TL if the market makes a new low.Continue to monitor for another supply TL break and HL.Some days the market will go into sideways markets part or all day.Other days the market will trend more in one direction most of the day.For now just focus on annotating the TL's and monitoring what happens after each break.Keep stats each day and for the whole week of the amount of total TL breaks,demand TL breaks with LH and without LH,supply TL breaks with HL and without HL.Try to see how the type of day will affect the stats.Look at the size of the bars when market is going with the trend versus just retracing slightly.Review what the opens and closes do in stronger trends versus sideways markets.Start to really view the market and forget about trading it for now.Stop reading or viewing any other material for now.Print out the two examples from nodoji and db.Study them over and over again.How does db's example differ from nodoji's? Post your chart at the start and end of each day.Try to post your chart realtime when the market breaks a demand TL and makes a LH.Do the same for supply TL breaks and a HL. Post your stats for the day.Comment on what the market did that day in reference to the TL "breaks".Do this and you will begin the journey of seeing the market better.
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Thank you Workwithus,

I can see that you, ND, and DBP all seem to be pointing to the same path. Does trying to trade, even in sim, affect the ability to just try and learn what the PA is doing? Does it make that much of an impact?

Its a difficult concept to consider doing this without having a goal - to trade - I can see myself clicking the buy/sell button. That said, this journal is about developing new ideas since the old ones are not working for me.
 
dbphoenix said:
Starting over is difficult. And you're getting a lot of input here. You really ought to focus on just one voice.
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As usual DBP has cut through it. Pick one approach to the market that you believe fits your personality (I recommend looking at EITHER NoDoji or DBP). Try and throw out everything you "know" about trading and start fresh.

As for entries if you are trying to enter on a pullback when is a pullback confirmed?When is it blown? What happens when you enter after a pullback is confirmed? What happens when you enter before a pullback is confirmed?
 
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