I feel the entry is also critical
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TrendFader, it's always a good laugh to read your posts. It's hilarious the way you gun down any opposition to your point of view!
I wonder, are you trying to convince others... or yourself?
One can spend a lot of time debating which is more important, entry or exit, but I doubt there'll ever be any consensus agreement. The time is probably better spent finding ways to improve both entries and exits. (Although there's probably a danger in taking that too far too -- ie, searching for the "perfect" system.)
To the guy that was testing the random entry system, Tharp et al didn't randomly choose the timing of the entry; it was determined by volatility. The subsequent decision to go long or short was decided randomly.
A similar, more thorough, test was performed by Katzenburg, detailed in his book, that returned profitable results depending on exit strategy. I think I've got that book somewhere, I'll check and write back.
I wonder, are you trying to convince others... or yourself?
One can spend a lot of time debating which is more important, entry or exit, but I doubt there'll ever be any consensus agreement. The time is probably better spent finding ways to improve both entries and exits. (Although there's probably a danger in taking that too far too -- ie, searching for the "perfect" system.)
To the guy that was testing the random entry system, Tharp et al didn't randomly choose the timing of the entry; it was determined by volatility. The subsequent decision to go long or short was decided randomly.
A similar, more thorough, test was performed by Katzenburg, detailed in his book, that returned profitable results depending on exit strategy. I think I've got that book somewhere, I'll check and write back.
And while I'm reluctant to sing the same old song, unless those who join the discussion are willing to be specific about their entries and exits (and, no, they needn't provide all the details of their systems; they can be specific about one or the other), then it will end up being yet another philosophical discussion based on what somebody read somewhere or what some guru somewhere said or what some individual's "experience" has been or the fabulous system that one is trading which he isn't going to talk about other than the incredible results and the complete lack of losing trades.
--Db
alfonso...
good point. the entry timing in this test was just ridiculous.
i had thought about ways to improve the exits based on volatility...so like a 2 standard deviation stop loss. or something.
i am interested in looking at the that Katzenburg book. (a search of amazon did not come up with any trading titles). if you find it,
you can post the name here or PM me.
thanks.