I doubled down on my short hedge (QQQ/SPY)

TimtheEnchanter

TimtheEnchanter

Today we have a bounce due to oversold condition and rate easing drastically. Fake rally, silly to jump ALL in for the long haul, maybe for a quick daytrade. I am long a little and have 2 SPY and QQQ put spreads. Up for the day a little.
I expect the market to trade sideways with a downtrend slope, until the Fed changes direction or have better view of the economy, maybe by November.
Yesterday I nibbled into BRKB, MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN...I will dollar cost average for the long haul.
 
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TimtheEnchanter said:
Today we have a bounce due to oversold condition and rate easing drastically. Fake rally, silly to jump ALL in for the long haul, maybe for a quick daytrade. I am long a little and have 2 SPY and QQQ put spreads. Up for the day a little.
I expect the market to trade sideways with a downtrend slope, until the Fed changes direction or have better view of the economy, maybe by November.
Yesterday I nibbled into BRKB, MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, AMZN...I will dollar cost average for the long haul.
More...
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QQQ + SPY may finish up today; if they do, its 50 minutes till close??
Most likely get a bit short[thru inverse ETFs] a bit more ,to balance my UPRO today. Main trend is still down but that was a super long run for the downtrend$...........................................
Longs doing better than inverses for me now but thats timing ; just looks like a better than average bear rally ??
 
Bear rallies can big quite strong but there is nothing underlying to support to be bullish for 22/23 IMO.
Not fundamentals, not technicals. It might be temporarily over when there is a washout down day (we have yet to see). Sideways markets are quite easy to trade buy dips, sell and rallies, just do not get carried away.
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Overnight said:
Always keep a third eye open on news that Putin goes away. If that happens, the war ends. If the war ends, the new bull will begin. Rip-your-face-off-type stuff.
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...well, yes similarly let say Shi is getting angst over criticism of his covid lockdown and as distraction he attacks Taiwan? That is a rip your face melt down for US stocks (equally a good opportunity to buy anything not taiwan exposed). The chance of Putin going away maybe higher that Shi's attack on Taiwan but I think both are plausible.
BTW, I do not think the war ending is a new bull market. The FED, never fight the FED!
 
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from Al Brooks email;
"S&P500 Emini futures
The Weekly S&P 500 Emini chart

  • This week’s Emini candlestick was a bear bar with a long tail below closing below February low. It closed at the upper range of the bar and was a weak breakout bar.
  • Last week, we said that the Emini may need to trade sideways to up for another week or two before traders are willing to bet aggressively on a breakout below or a reversal higher.
  • Odds favor at least a small second leg sideways to down move after a pullback (bounce) and because the bears got consecutive big bear bars closing near the low, it increases the chance of a downside breakout attempt.
  • This week broke below the 9-month trading range. While the candlestick had a bear body, the long tail below indicates that the bears are not as strong as they could have been.
  • Bears want a strong break below the February 24 low which is the neckline of the double top bear flag and a measured move down towards 3600 based on the height of the 9-month trading range.
  • The bears will need to close next week as another bear bar to confirm the breakout.
  • The bulls want a failed breakout below the 9-month trading range.
  • They see a wedge bull flag (Jan 24, Feb 24, and May 12) with an embedded parabolic wedge (April 26, May 2, and May 12) and want a reversal higher from a lower low major trend reversal.
  • They want a reversal back to the middle of the 9-month trading range around 4400.
  • The selloff from March 29 has been very strong. The bulls will need at least a micro double bottom or a strong reversal bar before they would be willing to buy aggressively.
  • This week closed at the upper range of the bar with a long tail below, it is a moderate reversal bar. It would have been a stronger reversal bar if it had a bull body closing near the high. It is a buy signal bar for next week.
  • The bulls will need to close next week as a follow-through bull bar. If they get that, a 2 legged sideways to up minor pullback should begin.
  • Al has said that the Emini has been oscillating around 4,400 for 9-months. That price might well end up being the middle of the trading range. Since the top of the range is about 400 points higher, the bottom could be 400 points lower. That is below the February low and around the 4,000 Big Round Number.
  • If it gets there, traders will then wonder if the Emini might fall for a measured move down from the February/March double top. That would fill the gap above the March 2021 high on the monthly chart.
  • There are 6 consecutive bear bars in the current leg down, something that has not happened since June 2008. It increases the odds that we will get a bull bar within the next 1 to 2 weeks.
  • The Emini may need to trade sideways for another week or two before traders are willing to bet aggressively on a breakout below or a reversal higher.
  • Because of the weak breakout this week, odds slightly favor sideways to up pullback to begin anytime soon.
  • However, because of the tight bear channel down, odds are the pullback would be minor and traders expect at least a small second leg sideways to down move after a pullback because V-bottoms are not common."
 
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