I dont want to short TSLA

1. Logic is essential and fundamental to trading, but trading is not all about logic. To see bypass the market is also critical to trading.

2. There's no right place right time. There's only vision with execution. With vision and execution, there will always be right place and right time; without its just converse. This logic can also be applied to Bezos, in terms of right place (internet) right time (dot com bubble), the deciding factor is to know where is the right place and when its the right time. And Elon happens to know that, that's why Tesla is the leading electric vehicle globally.

3. Inventions are products of necessity, but creativity of inventions bypass the necessity. That's Uber. Necessity is not always driven by money, they are many times created by vision, ie: the market didn't know they had a necessity in personal computer until Paul Allen came up with that creative idea and told Bill Gates (vision), then Gates executed it.


4. Money is not the mother of all inventions, ie:electrothermics. Well even Amazon wasn't invented to make money. It existed as a missionary company instead mercenary. I believe that's the fundamental of what makes a great company. Well but eventually Bezos' missionary led to mercenary. Again, that's what all great company end up with.

And by the way, scam artist don't share their patent for free. But that's what Elon did.

people evolve... guy might have started with good intentions but now it's all about the dollar grab... I am all for vision and all... just don't dip into my federal tax!

what patent? hyper loop?
 


And by the way, scam artist don't share their patent for free. But that's what Elon did.

Sure it would be no advantage for Tesla if the whole industry would follow their standards.

Where is the cheap EV for the masses? Like let's say under 30K? It is not even in their pipeline...
 
again the guy might started with good intentions, and perhaps he was brain washed by the global warming scam...

and once he got into the dark side perhaps it was too late to get out, even if he wanted to... you know all that fame and cash.

solar city is a complete scam to grab the federal assistance out of unknowing home owners;
space-x is another federal dollar grab;
e-cars are a bad idea to start with, there is really not much pollution reduction anyway as the e has to come from somewhere.

and notice I used the word pollution, not CO2.

I have made extensive posts about the CO2 scam on ET..

earth atmosphere is 10 miles thick - with majority of it in the first 3 miles;
if all the CO2 (natural and man-made) are collected together and form a sphere around the earth, it's about 100 INCHEs thick.. it's a TRACE gas;
if all the man-made CO2 are collected and form a sphere, it's 2 INCHes thick.

2 inches of CO2, in the mix of water vapor, the methane, the earth orbit changes, and the most important of all, solar activity changes.

but guess what, there is no money, or, it's too difficult to come up with a scam related to all these other factors.... CO2 is easy picking.. cap and trade, carbon tax.. Al Gore made $300m.. brilliant, perhaps a deal made with the devils when he was bot off not to drag the 2000 election any further.

guys wake up... nobody cares about shit... environment, clean energy, save the planet, vision quote unquote... all piles of bull crap... everything makes sense if you follow the money trail.

and yes, trading is ALL about LOGIC.. like the logic above, that explains why methane was not the focus... cause them scam artists can't make any money from preventing the cows from farting.

and check everything I posted regard my style of trading, all is about logic, to figure out what my pro boys do... because they didn't send me invitations to their secret meetings... but that's ok, from their media releases, their narratives, their price actions, and how they slaughter the dumb money, it wasn't difficult to logically figure out what the plan is.
 
Serendipity! Happy to see your post! I share your thoughts in the exact same way. I'm new to trading but with experiences in simulation accounts. Made consecutive profitable trades 49/50 on Tradingview and ready to roll out with brokerage (still researching and selecting). Made huge profits with TSLA in my s-account, all other trades were made with rational logic, except TSLA. Actually I wouldn't say long TSLA is irrational only because the market thinks otherwise, just like when markets used to think Lehman was too big to fail, and there were times when markets bear-ed Amazon, and there were times when people didn't understand why Buffet secretly bought in coke-cola. I share Elon's vision, in TSLA, SPACEX, BoringCo, SolarCity, and Neuralink. I guess longing TSLA is more of a fundamental analysis rather than technical, which would make much more sense to short. Anyways, glad to meet people shares same value! Do you mind sharing which brokerage platform do you use and if you are a day trader? Thank you!
etrade, yup.
 
No, I just read the news. Tesla's poor quality has been featured muchly in recent times. You haven't noticed? And recently there have been stories about how polluting EVs are... when you factor in the carbon footprint/environmental impact of manufacturing the batteries, charging them over their lifetime and then disposing of them. Seems by some measure to be even worse than internal comubstion engines. Perhaps not a huge difference, but Teslas seem hardly the planet's salvation some hope.

You know they have a saying in China... "Don't park next to a Tesla". (When it bursts into flame, you don't want the fire damaging your car too.)

Personally, I wouldn't pony up for a Tesla at this time and maybe not for a long time. Porsche is getting into EVs. You might want to look there.
yes but managing disposed batteries are still far more plausible than fossil fuel emission from cars and factories.
 
TSLA is the first company i have successfully traded with humonguous large gain after 10+ years of unsuccessful trading. It is a special name for me and after that event, I have first time ever, concluded, that I could be successful in trading options. It appears TSLa is having a again a test of time and good short opportunity. But I decided whatever the opportunity for short is, decided not to do, one and only one exception of making decision based on emotion rather than rationality, because I support ideologically everything Elon Musk doing.

Ok then don't.

Thread finished.
 
The logic for EV just escapes me:

80% of electricity in the US is coal, natural gas and oil powered, efficiency of generation is about 30-40%, EV motor conversion efficiency is about 60%, Overall 1 unit of energy converts to ~ 20% energy to motion.

Gas engine efficiency is ~25-40% (hybrid 40%), Gasoline production ~90% (file:///Users/wahlim/Downloads/energy_eff_petroleum_refineries-03-08.pdf) or ~ 20-30% conversion from energy to motion.

On top of that battery production produces a lot of toxic wastes, requires lots of energy, bad for environment, headache with disposals of old batteries ....

Net, net EV produces more green house gas and toxic wastes. My numbers are at best just guesstimates. But I doubt you will reach a different macro conclusion.

Of course I am just a dumb retail trader and don't understand complex science.
 
The logic for EV just escapes me:

80% of electricity in the US is coal, natural gas and oil powered, efficiency of generation is about 30-40%, EV motor conversion efficiency is about 60%, Overall 1 unit of energy converts to ~ 20% energy to motion.

Gas engine efficiency is ~25-40% (hybrid 40%), Gasoline production ~90% (file:///Users/wahlim/Downloads/energy_eff_petroleum_refineries-03-08.pdf) or ~ 20-30% conversion from energy to motion.

On top of that battery production produces a lot of toxic wastes, requires lots of energy, bad for environment, headache with disposals of old batteries ....

Net, net EV produces more green house gas and toxic wastes. My numbers are at best just guesstimates. But I doubt you will reach a different macro conclusion.

Of course I am just a dumb retail trader and don't understand complex science.
read my post #65 pls
 
The logic for EV just escapes me:

80% of electricity in the US is coal, natural gas and oil powered, efficiency of generation is about 30-40%, EV motor conversion efficiency is about 60%, Overall 1 unit of energy converts to ~ 20% energy to motion.

Gas engine efficiency is ~25-40% (hybrid 40%), Gasoline production ~90% (file:///Users/wahlim/Downloads/energy_eff_petroleum_refineries-03-08.pdf) or ~ 20-30% conversion from energy to motion.

On top of that battery production produces a lot of toxic wastes, requires lots of energy, bad for environment, headache with disposals of old batteries ....

Net, net EV produces more green house gas and toxic wastes. My numbers are at best just guesstimates. But I doubt you will reach a different macro conclusion.

Of course I am just a dumb retail trader and don't understand complex science.

Gas efficiency is in the high 40's and is above 60% with recuperation. Your EV conversion efficiency is also too low, it's near 80ish with current battery and motor tech. I'd have to read on refining, but 90% seems like a pipe dream.
 
Gas efficiency is in the high 40's and is above 60% with recuperation. Your EV conversion efficiency is also too low, it's near 80ish with current battery and motor tech. I'd have to read on refining, but 90% seems like a pipe dream.
OK, here are more data:

Refinery efficiency: The paper I cited said 88%.

Everything else: From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_conversion_efficiency, I use the mid point numbers from Wiki for computation.

Gas efficiency: gas motor ~.3%, refinery ~88% net: 0.3 * 0.88 = 0.264

EV efficiency: Li battery ~85%, Motor ~ 70%, power plant ~30% (Wiki said up to 40%), net: 0.85 * 0.7 * 0.3 = 0.179

Gas is 47% more energy efficient (.26/.18=1.46). If you don't use solar/wind..., EV generate more green house gas, by 47%
 
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