i don't think the markets are random, i think they're like this...

Originally posted by nasdaqmadness
The above post is totally fabricated. I just thought you all needed a break from your boredom. Happy trading!! Nas :D
More...
Ok...that's better!
 
alright....

runningbear said in chaotic systems, trends will occur and they won't occur. an indicator isn't going to predict when this will happen..it will only happen when it happens. he also said different things can be occurring at different time frames.....which is clearly true.

the only question i have here is....it's clear we've been in a bear market (nasdaq daily). why would i think a bull is going to start tomorrow? i wouldn't, sooo i guess this means we have to assume what has been happening will continue???? but we just keep in mind that it could change at any time?

i like this part here:

"A coin flip may be random, but that doesn't stop 100 heads landing in a row. Across an infinite number of flips, 100 heads in a row will at some point occur.

If you were a betting man, would you bet against heads after 50 straight heads, or with the trend. Logic says one thing, but emotion says the opposite. In chaos lies order, in order lies chaos. These are one and the same. One cannot exist without the other.

We can never know if a trend is the result of a cause, or simply a series of random coincidences. All we can do is build a trading system that profits from that trend.

Everything else is just not worth thinking about."

in the 50 straight heads example, logic would say the trend will continue. emotion would say that the 50 heads in a row will end soon.

my question here is.... if you had 50 straight heads and the odds are 50/50, why would i assume anything for the next one? do the previous coin flips have anything to do with the next one (no).. so why LOGICALLY would i say after 50 straight heads the next one will be heads too? i know the trend has been that way, but if it is 50/50, why would i assume anything? if this is a stupid question..i can't help it lol

i am suddenly flooded with a million questions........ here are some:

after runningbear's post, dgabriel said:

"Forget it Gekko. Don't think too much after hitting the bong or the sauce. It really is simple. The market goes up, or down, or does not do much of anything. The indicators won't tell you what it is doing until it a move is is pretty well on its way, but price will.

Follow price until it tells you to fuck off, then wait and see where it wants to go."

from this i get that price can either go up, down, or sideways. an indicator won't predict it. so basically, i don't need indicators. but here is why im a little puzzled. this is more directed at nitro. nitro, in another post, you suggested i keep track of where PREM, TICK, etc. were when i made my entry. i'm not doubting you here, but i just want understand why dgabriel says indicators won't help me, all i need is price...and you are suggesting i track PREM, etc. this distinction is why i'm always foggy.... some people say you don't need anything but price. but then if someone says they're going to trade off a chart (like aphie said), some will say he will lose his shirt.

again, i am not criticizing anyone here..just want to understand everyone's perspective.. thank you
 
Originally posted by nasdaqmadness
I know a guy that makes 20K a month. He trades through Cyber Trader and uses no charts what so ever. His total systems consists of a program called Market Tones. Converts any action that you want to program into musical notes. Example 2000 shares of INTC hit at the bid plays d flat Hit at the ask plays d sharp. He trades only 3 stocks and and listens to the music of the market. He trades in the dark and usually smokes 1-2 joints before market opens. He sits in an old oak swivel chair with his back to the monitor and stares at a blue and black poster of the universe. when he hears the right music he goes long the basket of stocks. If the market is sounding flat he shorts. He only trades until 10:07 he says this was the exact moment that the universe was created. He got into trading because in 1994 when he was high on mushrooms his cat actually spoke to him and told him that "trading was the only peaceful battle."He bought an island off the coast near Nova Scotia and is going to retire at 10:07 on December 31st the end of this tax year. He flies a Hughes 500 helicopter from his home in Newfoundland to his Island every weekend. I asked him what his secret was and he told me that It was His ........ Got to get the phone will finish this post later
More...
lol what a post! i don't now to take you for real or as a joke! either way, i love the idea... i say this because i play guitar, bass, and drums.
 
Originally posted by Quah


Yep. Karma plays havoc with your trading and your head. I've made a lot of money over the past year trading ES, and I've lost a lot of money. The main thing I noticed is when I started talking to other people about how easy it was - how it was like printing my own money - how I had found "the system" - almost immediately after that I'd lose my ass. The more talking you do the more likely you are to let a loss run on you. Now I talk about nothing - I don't set myself up for failure.
More...

I dont think or talk about it at all! I just keep my mind focused on the process and let the "fruits of my actions" take care of themselves. You play this game long enough, she will become the ultimate ego elixer...

PEACE and good trading Quah and congrats on another winning day (although I still dont get it :) I am slow)
Commisso
 
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko
...from this i get that price can either go up, down, or sideways. an indicator won't predict it. so basically, i don't need indicators. but here is why im a little puzzled. this is more directed at nitro. nitro, in another post, you suggested i keep track of where PREM, TICK, etc. were when i made my entry. i'm not doubting you here, but i just want understand why dgabriel says indicators won't help me, all i need is price...and you are suggesting i track PREM, etc. this distinction is why i'm always foggy.... some people say you don't need anything but price. but then if someone says they're going to trade off a chart (like aphie said), some will say he will lose his shirt.

again, i am not criticizing anyone here..just want to understand everyone's perspective.. thank you
More...

Here is the problem - you will never be able to reconcile "everyone's perspective". The only perspective that matters for you is your perspective - and that is something that you can only come up with 100% on your own. Your perspective can conflict with every other perspective on this board and still be right for you - and be profitable for you. Stop trying to find logic in something that is illogical.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top