i don't think the markets are random, i think they're like this...

Originally posted by metooxx


I remember when I thought the rocket scientists had it covered.

Now that I am older, and maybe a little wiser, I can no longer count all the engineer types I have seen carried out ...
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Hehehehe,

metoo, you kill me...

nitro :D
 
Originally posted by aphexcoil
J_Commisso,

As soon as I get my bonus from work. It is play money

Gordon,

Please see the attached file.
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You are going to get killed.

nitro
 
I think the truth lies somewhere inbetween these observations:

1. Free market price movement looks very similar to random movement.

2. Whenever you find a system that works, the market will adapt and anticipate it, and sooner or later the system will stop making money.

3. The market always proves tha majority wrong. (Could someone elaborate on this point? Maybe there are alternate ways to state it that might provide deeper insight.)

4. There are consistently profitable traders.

Maybe we should approach this whole question by means of a computer simulation.

What would really be interesting to know is whether or not trading success has to do with intelligence or level of abstraction.

We could also look at what kind of edge different traders have: MMs earn the spread, but is that a true edge? The rainman guy on the terminal in Chicago has the advantage of being a few milliseconds faster than everyone else.

I am more the rocket-science type of guy in that my trading system would not work without a decent computer and it would be rather difficult to explain.

What is your edge, each of you?

While we are at it, does anyone happen to know an argument for fibonacci retracements other than that the number of traders who believe in those numbers is high enough to make them relevant for the resulting price action?
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1. Free market price movements don't look like random movements to me. I have seen charts of random movements and random movements don't do the types of things that market prices do.

2. I seriously doubt the market has the capability of adapting to thousands of different systems and making them all unprofitable. This would nullify #4 as well.

3. I think the majority are just not cut out to trade -- they freak, sell and buy, churn their account, panic, get emotional, get excited, nervous, etc -- Yet the market just keeps on chugging along.

4. Agreed.


My edge is in identifying what kind of market is currently being produced from trade patterns and switching between two systems. One that handles trends and one that handles chops.
 
Originally posted by J_Commisso
I was telling you something that you will have to learn over and over again once you start trading...

Hindsight is not the HARD RIGHT EDGE...
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commisso,

2 things....

i have heard the term, "hard right edge," but can you explain what it means? like why is it called the "hard right" edge? this is just something i've never known.....

the other thing is.....i agree it is easy to use hindsight and say i could have done this trade, that one, this one.....and it looks easy. i do see your point here. however, what are you suggesting aphie do about it? he has posted a chart which he thinks he can base some trades off of. what would you say to him..like what is your issue with him here? just wondering....

actually 3 things...

didn't you have the old nick commisso? and i thought you said you were also publias? how come now you're j_commisso?!?! just curious!
 
Nitro,

I hope I do. In fact, I hope you're on the other side of my trade. I'll let you know when I start trading so you can take all my money.

I'm looking forward to getting killed. I can't wait. It is going to be a lot of fun getting my ass hammered by the future's market.
 
Originally posted by Gordon Gekko
i do not believe the markets are random. i don't know what word i'd use to describe them, but i think i can explain how they move. if someone knows the term for this, please let me know...

i don't believe one particular indicator or trading technique controls the market. i believe at times a lot of indicators will line up and then it will get pushed in a direction. of course, this can only last for so long, and then other indicators/systems are in control. maybe this time, it is a weaker combination and the effect will not be the same.
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Here is an idea from chaos theory that might help to explain the phenomena that you were trying to describe lol:D

Many chaotic systems have FEEDBACK LOOPS embedded into their behavior.

There are 2 kinds of feedback loops: Negative ("restricting") and Positive ("amplifying")

a Negative feedback loop is "restricting" in that it tries to keep things within a range. Think of a thermostat controlling an air conditioner. When things get too warm, the thermostat kicks on the air conditioner. When it gets too cool, (outside of the range) it turns it off.

a Positive loop is "amplifying" in that it takes the output and adds it to the input. Think of the squeals from a PA sound system. You put the microphone in front of the speaker and the output from the speaker goes into the mic and gets amplified and that output from the speaker goes into the mic and gets amplified.. etc....etc........

the markets imvho are just a GIGANTiC array of nested feedback loops feeding off of and feeding each other.

stops and profit taking are probably negative feedback loops - it gets too hot or too cold...

same with overbought/oversold.

trends and news items would be like positive feedback loops - news comes out, some people buy, price goes up, people see the prices go up, more people buy, etc...

from here things start to get UGLY.

Think of each of the thousands of traders out there as a couple of feedback loops: 1 positive - 1 negative. (GREED - FEAR)

Then cluster those thousands into different time frames. (weekly, daily, hourly, 30, 15, 5, scalp, etc..)

Then each traders feedback loops have their own SIZE, based on their relative size in the market

then each traders feedback loops have their own ranges and sensitivities (objectives, risk-tolerance)

Take all of that and throw it into a big pot..

add a couple bay leaves, salt, pepper. simmer for a while,

and you have the Markets..:D

the markets are non-random imvho because of humans.

Their behavior (oh yea, i'm one of them too..) Their behavior (feedback loops) tends to cluster into similar ranges.
 
Originally posted by aphexcoil
J_Commisso,

I'm not looking at the "hard right edge." Gordon knows exactly what I'm showing him.
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Of course you are not! You are looking at a range after the fact and comparing it to an ATM machine...

ATM machine :p You know how many traders chewed on razor blades within that contraction looking for a trend resumption...

Aphex I can tell that I am somehow annoying you and that was not my intention so I will just leave you be from now on...

I eagerly await this journal of yours, PEACE and good luck with your journey...

"To speak of bulls is not the same as to be in the BULL RING" ~Spanish Proverb~

Commisso
 
Originally posted by aphexcoil
Nitro,

I hope I do. In fact, I hope you're on the other side of my trade. I'll let you know when I start trading so you can take all my money.

I'm looking forward to getting killed. I can't wait. It is going to be a lot of fun getting my ass hammered by the future's market.
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Come into the chatroom - I am there everyday and I often take spoos trade and always call them - if you call your trades, then you don't have to hope I am on the other side of your trade - you will KNOW.

nitro
 
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