I don't buy this rally

Quote from hottpotat0:

hey P$D do you think this is a suckers rally?
if the banks and homebuilders knew a rate cut was coming they would have (and did) start buying to sell into the spike tomorrow?
that was good advice you gave me on NFI back in june july thanks-now i do not feel secure that we are at a bottom by any means-but i could be way wrong being a spectator in this mess-home builder sector is first to rise with a mkt bottom?????
unless it is a false bottom-----so is this a false bottom?
nother leg down coming?
any idea's?

ABN is still up there
what are the best re-insurers to short?
thanks for the out put sorry your trade failed
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I don't know...now I'd like to see an elevated sucker rally. Everyone has a hard on for the FED and this cut. Fine, go ahead and cut .50, hell just get the damn thing down to 2%. Get it done with, its played out and will come back and bite the bulls in the ass.

There will be fresh shoes to drop down the road. I guess let the market take its course....
 
Quote from pumpanddumper:

I don't know...now I'd like to see an elevated sucker rally. Everyone has a hard on for the FED and this cut. Fine, go ahead and cut .50, hell just get the damn thing down to 2%. Get it done with, its played out and will come back and bite the bulls in the ass.

There will be fresh shoes to drop down the road. I guess let the market take its course....
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There always are - that's why the market appears to be so cyclical to so many.

Cocky? I've got it in spades:

I'm massively short goog right now through a program I wrote. It's been selling calls and buy puts for the past 3 days. Target is 373 by October sell-off.

I dialed-down some of the risk mgt. variables so it will keep the positions open longer.
 
Quote from pumpanddumper:

hopefully this consumer confidence will be shitty.
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You must be "new" to trading the market.

A "crappy" consumer confidence number will be BULLISH for the market because it is just one more piece of evidence that the FED can point to for the purpose of easing!

In the meantime, the SPX is now trading back above the 10 day MA and has a ways to go before getting up to resistance at the 21-day MA at 1389.

A simple "measured-move" can easily take the market up to 1424 SPX.

Turn off the TV and try "listening" to the market.

:)
 
Quote from pumpanddumper:

I don't know...now I'd like to see an elevated sucker rally. Everyone has a hard on for the FED and this cut. Fine, go ahead and cut .50, hell just get the damn thing down to 2%. Get it done with, its played out and will come back and bite the bulls in the ass.

There will be fresh shoes to drop down the road. I guess let the market take its course....
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Sucker's rally would be a gold mine, the only question is how high it goes. I think there is enough ammo to take the market to 1400, but maybe the bulls really get excited and take it all the way to 1450. Timing is the key but this bear market hasn't bottomed yet. There will be many more downdrafts this year.
 
Quote from Landis82:

You must be "new" to trading the market.

A "crappy" consumer confidence number will be BULLISH for the market because it is just one more piece of evidence that the FED can point to for the purpose of easing!

:p
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LOL, I was just pumping. That # does not mean shit. should over covered right into that.:p
 
Quote from detective:

Sucker's rally would be a gold mine, the only question is how high it goes. I think there is enough ammo to take the market to 1400, but maybe the bulls really get excited and take it all the way to 1450. Timing is the key but this bear market hasn't bottomed yet. There will be many more downdrafts this year.
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It's an election year. The bias will be up.
 
I see a lot of people are comparing this market to 2001/2002, where "Fed cuts didn't help". I am not sure if the tech implosion (topped by 9/11, Enron/Worldcom + Argentina debt default) is the right playbook. Go look at the charts of 1990/91. Financials were killed, rates were lowered, a bunch of builders and banks went out of business, and yes the cuts worked. That's no guarantee it will work this time, just it's a better comparison scenario-wise than the tech bubble IMO.
 
This is usually true around Fed decisons. Bad news = good news since it encourages a cut...and maybe a larger one.

However, this has been on again/off again since the summer of '06. Bad news is taken as good news for awhile, then all of the sudden bad news is interpreted as recessionary and stocks tank. Sometimes, like in December, the relationship changes almost daily.


Quote from Landis82:

You must be "new" to trading the market.

A "crappy" consumer confidence number will be BULLISH for the market because it is just one more piece of evidence that the FED can point to for the purpose of easing!


:)
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That's true. In a lot of ways, this is more like the S&L days of 1990.

One difference from both periods is inflation, though. We didn't have skyrocketing gold or oil in either case. You have to go back to '79-80 to see something similar.

And with consumer debt levels so high right now, a replay of the 70s (double-digit interest rates, unemployment at 11% at one point, etc.) is downright frightening.

Quote from makloda:

I see a lot of people are comparing this market to 2001/2002, where "Fed cuts didn't help". I am not sure if the tech implosion is the right playbook. Go look at the charts of 1990/91. Financials were killed, rates were lowered, a bunch of builders and banks went out of business, and yes the cuts worked. That's no guarantee it will work this time, just it's a better comparison scenario-wise than the tech bubble IMO.
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