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I don't buy this rally
- Thread starter pumpanddumper
- Start date
The only quibble I have is the "no cut" scenario (which is unlikely, IMHO). If that happens, I think we'd see another one of those 300+ point (3% or more) Dow drops. We had a pretty steep drop in December on a 0.25 cut.
Quote from S2007S:
.75 was baked in last week,
.50 tomorrow afternoon and the markets may gain some more ground, .25 and the markets should sell off on this news, no move and the markets could drop 1-2%.
If you want to short, Ok, but wait until the Fed meeting is over.Quote from pumpanddumper:
I just shorted the piss out of the open. Any chances a full 180 today and selling momo picking up. Sure, I'm a little nervous with FED and what not but thats tomorrow. I could use a strong dose of reality to the market today. I needd some help from the bear protection team one time!
If the Fed makes a big cut, then you may not be able to short.
Don't fight the Fed, it has extremely deep pockets, unlimited in fact.
I don't like the fact everyone is calling the bottom and blue skies ahead.
This FED is not the ECB who has balls. Market would dump 2-3% on no cut.
They should now with the rally we've had do .25 and save ammo when new shoes drop.
This FED is not the ECB who has balls. Market would dump 2-3% on no cut.
They should now with the rally we've had do .25 and save ammo when new shoes drop.
"Don't fight the Fed" is meaning less and less these days. Did you actually follow this from January 2001 until 2003? I hope not!
Even academics like Jeremy Siegel are saying Fed cuts are mostly priced into stocks before the fact. This is especially true with futures on interest rates. Martin Zweig's original insights on the Fed and stocks came from a different era, but even he didn't use the Fed as a stand-alone indicator.
Even academics like Jeremy Siegel are saying Fed cuts are mostly priced into stocks before the fact. This is especially true with futures on interest rates. Martin Zweig's original insights on the Fed and stocks came from a different era, but even he didn't use the Fed as a stand-alone indicator.
Quote from crgarcia:
If you want to short, Ok, but wait until the Fed meeting is over.
If the Fed makes a big cut, then you may not be able to short.
Don't fight the Fed, it has extremely deep pockets, unlimited in fact.
Quote from SchraderTrader:
I've got 6 QQQQ Feb 44 Puts open at $1.17. with the Durables coming in strong and the stock market remaining elevated as it has been, I'd expect a 25bp cut and a disappointed reaction from the street.
Thoughts?
Incorrect sir. We're getting a 50. It was already determined a month ago, the minutes just get released tomorrow.
Quote from crgarcia:
If you want to short, Ok, but wait until the Fed meeting is over.
If the Fed makes a big cut, then you may not be able to short.
Don't fight the Fed, it has extremely deep pockets, unlimited in fact.
dow went from new highs to new lows on how many rate cuts???
"dont fight the fed"???????????????????????????????????????????????????
Quote from SchraderTrader:
I've got 6 QQQQ Feb 44 Puts open at $1.17. with the Durables coming in strong and the stock market remaining elevated as it has been, I'd expect a 25bp cut and a disappointed reaction from the street.
Thoughts?
Durable goods coming in so high suggests 0bp to me, but Bernanke seems to care about the markets and Consumer Confidence is pretty bad. Maybe 25bp. Could be 50bp because of the stall by Dems in the Senate of Bush's $150B .
Toss a coin.
Quote from dr. fill:
Durable goods coming in so high suggests 0bp to me, but Bernanke seems to care about the markets and Consumer Confidence is pretty bad. Maybe 25bp. Could be 50bp because of the stall by Dems in the Senate of Bush's $150B .
Toss a coin.
.50 bp 5%
.25 bp 95%
0 bp cut 0%
the market wants a rate cut so he should deliver a rate cut.
Quote from S2007S:
.50 bp 5%
.25 bp 95%
0 bp cut 0%
the market wants a rate cut so he should deliver a rate cut.
It's not the Fed's job to appease the equity market - they have one responsibility: keep the USD strong.
Before you flame that comment, the Fed doesn't have a 2-month view on things. The moves Ben's making now are to ensure we're in a good place 5 years from now.