I don't buy this rally

Quote from Topsurfi:
Do your homework and take a look at the cyclical stocks, banking index and homebuilders, they have all turned around now and even outperform the S&P.
Bear is officially over, sorry.
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I wouldn't go as far as calling the downtrend to be reversed, but the areas you outlined definitely require close attention. This could develop into something. This week has important datapoints (ISM, GDP, NFP), we will see how those sectors react to the data.
 
Quote from wake37:

"Bear is officially over, sorry." Quote from topsurfi

How can you be so sure. when someone sounds that confident,they are usally wrong.
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smart money is never wrong, and they have been buying banks since 08th January. Of course there can be one or other panic day on some "news" about a hedge fund collapsing but this does not change the scenario that the recession is fully priced in and even some bank collaps.
People are so surprised that we head into a recession but you could see that on the yield curves since 12 months now !!!
Yes, we get a recession and yes, we will make new highs this year.
 
Quote from wake37:

"Bear is officially over, sorry." Quote from topsurfi

How can you be so sure. when someone sounds that confident,they are usally wrong.
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After sharp sell off market goes up for the second day in a row. What's not to be sure about? That is a bottom by any TA standard.
 
What about monolines and credit default swaps...and the time bomb of credit card debt?

Subprime is mostly old news, but there are plenty of other concerns. The financial sector is due for this short-term bounce, but it isn't out of the woods yet.


Quote from Topsurfi:



This whole "banking crisis" and suprime event is known since months and now as it is in the newspapers, its all over.
Move on.
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Yeah, bad call today. F me, should of stayed on sideline till fed pump and dump. I have upside protection thats working out though.

I think .75 is baked in now.:D
 
I think this morning's open was premature, but we're setting up for a beautiful short soon. I hate to admit it, but I agree with "Cramer's bottom" for the short-term. However, it's WAY to obvious, just like many other "bottoms" and "reversal patterns" that have shown up since the low 1500s on the S&P. Very good chance we'll break that and have a genuine chance to buy low later on.

Quote from pumpanddumper:

I just shorted the piss out of the open. Any chances a full 180 today and selling momo picking up. Sure, I'm a little nervous with FED and what not but thats tomorrow. I could use a strong dose of reality to the market today. I needd some help from the bear protection team one time!
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Think everyone is justing waiting for tomorrow and setting up to dump into any FED spike. Feels a little pre-mature right now. MY crystal ball failed me today.:p
 
Quote from pumpanddumper:

Yeah, bad call today. F me, should of stayed on sideline till fed pump and dump. I have upside protection thats working out though.

I think .75 is baked in now.:D
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.75 was baked in last week,


.50 tomorrow afternoon and the markets may gain some more ground, .25 and the markets should sell off on this news, no move and the markets could drop 1-2%.
 
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