I can't get over this hurdle. I would be grateful for feedback.
- Thread starter Kovacs
- Start date
very important.....
I watch the euro while trading es. check it out.
sometimes it will diverge and give you a nice juicey setup.
you;ll haveto do the homework on which timeframes.
other things to watch also, but I use a ma cross for enter/exit.
switched to cl after 1 hour this morning and it really paided off.
I read your posts on the ES Journal and know that you're a practitioner of intermarket confluence.
When I started out on the ES, I used the intermarket relationships approach as well. I looked at the DOW, XLF, XLE, UVOL/DVOL, VIX, TICK.
I found that looking at them made decision-making difficult and long. It's alright if you're holding for longer periods, but even for intraday swing it messed me up.
Also, that a lot of them bred the same hindsight bias I had with the primary instrument. For example, we know that uvol/dvol was never more than 3/2 all day, but we know that only because the day's over.
The argument can be made that statistically, if uvol/dvol is less or more than X by a certain time of day, then it's likely to do Z. But I haven't crunched numbers on that or looked at it for two years. I used to have a ton of lines and multiple indicators on my charts but I've been steadily cutting down.
keeping it simple, that uvol/dvol comparison chart only makes about 4 patterns,if u see this pattern u can trade the market profile, selling the top, buying the bottom and covering at the nip, todays nip was 37 so it wouldn't have allowed much profit... i also traded the c l today...http://www.charthub.com/images/2010/03/08/MP_ES_2
Simply accept the day for what it was. For a multi point trader days like today should be scratch or small loss days. If the points are not there they are not.. You will go crazy trying to switch trading styles ahead of what you THINK will happen, trend or chop. I worried about this lack of tone in my Journal this morning and that's exactly what we got.. Big up day friday into resistance today AND no news.
News WILL come and you can be sure there won't be chop then. Until then find something to do while watching.. That said the price movement has been crap lately..
News WILL come and you can be sure there won't be chop then. Until then find something to do while watching.. That said the price movement has been crap lately..
I agree about accepting days like yesterday without looking too much into them.
However, a good trader knows how to adapt to different market conditions and this doesn't imply he's trying to predict the future.
Example: let's say you are the type of trader who likes to go after big points. If you run a quick stat on your winners, you may find out that 65/70% of your big trades tend to occur during the first 2 hrs of trading. Or you may find out that the big trades only require 1-2 tries...if your trailing stop is picked off for 3 consecutive times, there is a high probability the day will be a narrow range day. In this case, you can either do something else or trade the small range and scalp the market.
The best traders are those who can identify changing market conditions sooner than others.