I can predict the future?

previous 6000
covered 3000 shares


total now= 3000 shares out of 13k, 20% of my holdings now.

===========


This trade is done, total p/l around 72,000
my dreams of turnberry on the strip is squashed.
 
Not happy with my performance today,
It should have been a non-trade (meaning no trade)

==========

Today I'm going to work on my 3752th interation of my theories, written on a notebook, refine it, the requirements for longs, the requirements for shorts.
I'm going to go through every past successful trade, and walk through the thinking process . Will take me a few hours, . Trading mistakes are not acceptable to me at this level, It MUST BE PUNISHED.

==================

right now the level I trade, each stop out can amount to = $2k - $25k , MISTAKES ARE NOT ALLOWED
mistakes are not allowed
mistakes are not allowed.
MISTAKES ARE NOT ALLOWED
mistakes are not allowed
mistakes are not allowed.
MISTAKES ARE NOT ALLOWED
mistakes are not allowed
mistakes are not allowed.


stopouts done by the system are welcomed.
stopouts done by mistakes eats away my soul.
 
figured out the exact mistake I made in even thinkin of taking that trade. took me about 3-4 hours, glad its done.

NEXT trade. its going to be done RIGHT.


=========

there are many paths to rome, but only 1 shortest way.
 
Quote from cooolweb:


right now the level I trade, each stop out can amount to = $2k - $25k , MISTAKES ARE NOT ALLOWED

stopouts done by the system are welcomed.
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More...

You are making the biggest mistake of all: reckless position sizing.

Statistically- you are doomed for failure. DOOMED. Even if you found a holy grail system that made you right 99% of the time..... your odds of exceeding over time are miniscule with the wonton disregard for position sizing you have expressed.

You do realize this don't you?
 
TO THE GENERAL READING POPULATION:

Completely disregarding the issue of position sizing right now---I can just see the amount of fired up posters that will come rolling in with ridicule on the perceived idiocy of a notion of being doomed for failure with a 99% accuracy rate.... how could that possibly be right?

Here's why:

A system with quantifiable stats can obviously be based one of two ways-- actual trades (live or simulated) or backtested results based on the "what if".

Problem is- there is no guarantee going forward the results will mimic the past.

Combine that issue with coolweb's extremely wide loss variable sets him up for a risk of ruin probability exponentially higher than what proper position sizing would do to make the possibility extremely remote.

Gambler's fallacy is sure to pose a risk as well should stats going forward change even slightly... all the more speeding up the inevitable.
 
I don't think you need to address the general population, only 1 person reads this thread, and its me.


regarding position size, I obviously have a postion size method, Its usually biggest when I win, smallest when I get stopped out 350k is a small position for me, 1M is now a full position for me, 2M is a awesome position for me.

stop out @ 350k = $3.5k
a win on 1M = $100-120k
 
Quote from cooolweb:

I obviously have a postion size method, Its usually biggest when I win,
More...

Are you trying to be funny? So basically you look into your crystal ball, predict the future with none other than 100% certainty in order for your quote above to be credible and valid in your own mind (in this case- you determine you will "win")... and according to your position size method rule- your size is "big"???

Quote from cooolweb:

smallest when I get stopped out 350k is a small position for me
More...

Oooooh ok.... so conversely- that tempered glas...umm... I mean crystal ball tells you this time you will be stopped out, so your rules say to position size the "smallest"...knowing that your going to lose...why go "big" eh?


In reality- your response is absurd, asinine, and just plain ignorant. You have no position size method obviously.
 
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