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I can NOt follow the Trend
- Thread starter Flashboy
- Start date
Quote from crgarcia:
Trends have to be obvious and easy to spot, if not, it's not a trend.
Trading non-trending markets is dangerous.
The ES went up more than 20 full points. To me that is a trend.
Trends don' t have to be obvious and easy to spot. That has nothing to do at all with the definition of trend. On top of that, being obvious and easy to spot is subjective. Some people see what others don't see, so for them it is obvious and easy to spot, while for others the same situation is not obvious and easy to spot at all.
A trend is a significant move in a direction. 20 points in the ES is clearly significant. To me at least.
I agree Jack.Quote from jack hershey:
You are correct about your situation.
I hope you have collected all your posts form 2003 on and put them in a binder.
Read them from the present to the first ones. Highlight the breakpoints in orientation by adding a colored sheet as a divider. For example this OP is a good one. the sheet can be labelled "before and after trends" meaning it is another sharp break in your path (not an intellectual one).
When you get to the beginning and see a lot of colored sheets, then reread chronologically.
With a piece of cardboard, mark the place where you believe you have accumulated so much garbage in your memory that you feel this stuff cannot be overcome (surrounded by solid information) in your efforts from now on.
You might look at each wedge of stuff one after the other and try to write down how you can overcome each part by a specific antidote.
As you will see, it is mostly over for you. Too many wedges, not enough antidotes to surround the past misfortunate turn in the path.
Finding antidotes is a lot of work. You would have to reason to find the resource containing each one. Then putting all the antidotes together in a package is a formidable task in itself. they probably won't fit anyways since they are antidotes for such a disparate collection of wedges.
As far as using trends at this point, all they will do is immobilize you every time you dig into your mind for a resort that is uppermost. None of these first resorts that you have assembled and built are useful or of value.
I monitored you for a few years. I pulled your binder and put it in a filefolder when I stopped monitoring you.
You are correct in your OP to a "T".
I'm so programmed now that I find myself becoming immobilzed when time to put on a trade that isn't countertrend. I think this was instilled in me from all the books I've read in the beginning that concentrated mostly on trading reversals
Quote from Flashboy:
I agree Jack.
I'm so programmed now that I find myself becoming immobilzed when time to put on a trade that isn't countertrend. I think this was instilled in me from all the books I've read in the beginning that concentrated mostly on trading reversals
Seeing reversals is an important aspect to trend following. All trends have their roots in reversals from older trends. What I suspect you do wrong is that you take yourself out of the market when a reversal fails. Instead, you should force yourself to get back in, reverse your position and follow the trend.
What the hell is so tough about going with the flow, you guys over analyze this business and take yourselves out of the game mentally, and that goes for all the "helpful" advice as well
Just use your reversal skills to catch the retracements in a trend, it aint rocket surgery
Just use your reversal skills to catch the retracements in a trend, it aint rocket surgery
Here are My trends
100%= Buy
0%= Sell
Symbol Sell Buy Strike Strike Expiry Close Trend 5 Days Notes
AAPL 133.72 119.91 136.51 9/13/07 134.08 100.00%
ADBE 42.98 38.47 42.16 9/21/07 42.25 100.00%
ADSK 46.54 41.50 47.52 9/17/07 45.14 99.78%
AKAM 33.82 30.50 20.96 9/8/07 32.47 0.30%
ALTR 23.93 21.47 24.57 9/17/07 23.46 100.00%
AMAT 21.11 19.12 21.97 9/17/07 20.71 100.00%
AMGN 51.13 46.22 45.62 9/17/07 50.19 45.31%
AMLN 50.86 45.04 53.47 9/17/07 48.45 74.39%
AMZN 83.99 75.10 84.62 9/8/07 79.05 100.00%
APOL 60.83 53.45 59.59 9/13/07 58.87 96.38%
ATVI 19.51 17.23 19.90 9/17/07 18.88 95.94%
BBBY 34.13 31.24 32.60 9/17/07 34.57 95.58%
BEAS 12.42 11.00 12.32 9/13/07 11.91 97.58%
BIIB 65.06 59.16 64.08 9/17/07 62.86 99.88%
BMET 49.32 43.84 45.89 10/28/07 45.88 51.88%
BRCM 34.40 30.08 31.55 9/17/07 32.84 23.83%
CDNS 22.59 20.34 21.76 9/21/07 21.36 99.19%
CDWC 89.86 80.98 86.37 9/17/07 85.84 100.00%
CELG 63.41 56.47 62.66 9/17/07 61.8 99.43%
CEPH 76.59 69.41 75.63 9/17/07 73.34 100.00%
CHKP 23.97 21.70 24.03 9/17/07 23.36 100.00%
CHRW 50.39 44.81 50.57 9/13/07 48.77 100.00%
CKFR 48.36 43.05 52.11 9/13/07 46 6.34%
CMCSA 27.06 24.41 25.94 9/21/07 25.73 99.99%
COST 63.77 58.26 64.34 9/21/07 61.31 56.53%
CSCO 31.83 28.96 31.95 9/17/07 31 100.00%
CTAS 36.93 33.81 36.71 9/21/07 35.93 100.00%
CTSH 73.49 65.49 67.14 9/17/07 72.1 7.95%
CTXS 38.12 33.06 36.82 9/17/07 35.71 22.65%
DELL 29.18 26.02 27.85 9/21/07 27.86 100.00%
DISCA 24.96 22.94 25.31 9/13/07 24.77 100.00%
DISH 42.61 38.93 42.09 9/17/07 41.68 100.00%
EBAY 34.82 31.11 36.88 9/17/07 33.45 100.00%
ERIC 36.78 33.40 37.08 9/17/07 36.42 99.94%
ERTS 54.31 48.46 49.59 9/17/07 52.36 20.72%
ESRX 56.81 49.94 56.05 9/17/07 53.45 96.19%
EXPD 45.95 40.42 49.87 9/17/07 44.52 42.87%
EXPE 30.66 27.68 30.98 9/13/07 29.11 100.00%
FAST 46.39 42.01 49.71 9/13/07 45.65 100.00%
FISV 49.94 45.23 49.35 9/21/07 46.63 100.00%
FLEX 11.26 10.24 10.64 9/17/07 11.18 16.53% Sell
GENZ 62.33 56.27 56.37 9/21/07 60.61 96.24%
GILD 38.67 34.61 38.10 9/21/07 36.05 99.95%
GOOG 542.42 486.38 521.30 9/21/07 512.88 100.00%
GRMN 102.78 90.46 115.00 9/13/07 100.96 83.61%
IACI 29.03 25.96 23.50 9/21/07 27.32 55.03%
INFY 47.08 42.88 42.83 9/13/07 47 15.42% Sell
INTC 25.12 22.82 25.05 9/17/07 25.09 100.00%
INTU 27.73 25.24 28.81 9/13/07 27.12 88.58%
ISRG 227.94 205.95 218.87 9/8/07 215.58 100.00%
JNPR 34.19 30.44 34.92 9/13/07 32.61 98.10%
JOYG 48.15 41.26 49.58 9/13/07 42.93 99.97%
KLAC 59.66 53.70 61.19 9/17/07 58.2 100.00%
LAMR 54.36 49.68 54.75 9/17/07 53.03 99.57%
LBTYA 41.87 38.29 41.45 9/21/07 39.55 100.00%
LINTA 19.54 17.62 16.48 9/17/07 18.95 95.97%
LLTC 36.09 32.15 34.87 9/17/07 34.12 100.00%
LOGI 27.49 24.43 24.95 9/17/07 26.76 60.19%
LRCX 55.88 48.95 55.24 9/17/07 53.82 98.75%
LVLT 5.18 4.50 4.38 9/13/07 4.94 2.23%
MCHP 38.61 35.08 39.08 9/17/07 37.75 100.00%
MICC 84.59 73.78 67.60 9/13/07 82.62 79.65%
MNST 34.82 30.76 30.18 9/13/07 34.15 0.00%
MRVL 16.46 14.47 14.81 9/13/07 16.25 0.62%
MSFT 29.50 27.37 28.84 9/21/07 28.59 99.81%
MXIM 31.00 27.69 31.42 9/17/07 30.05 99.95%
NIHD 78.67 71.25 78.90 9/13/07 76.16 99.85%
NTAP 29.49 26.98 19.97 9/8/07 28.39 0.00%
NVDA 49.23 43.33 50.25 9/13/07 48.96 62.61%
ORCL 20.77 18.87 20.16 9/21/07 20.13 100.00%
PAYX 46.27 42.23 47.26 9/21/07 44.46 82.04%
PCAR 83.74 75.88 85.95 9/13/07 82.96 100.00%
PDCO 38.78 34.99 39.14 9/17/07 36.77 88.75%
PETM 34.70 31.43 34.86 9/17/07 33.96 100.00%
PTEN 22.13 19.44 22.12 9/17/07 21.52 97.08%
QCOM 39.78 35.46 38.80 9/17/07 38.92 100.00%
RIMM 86.33 77.57 86.25 9/8/07 81.82 79.66%
ROST 27.99 25.12 27.79 9/17/07 27.12 98.40%
RYAAY 41.51 37.13 35.75 9/13/07 40.34 0.01%
SBUX 28.98 25.56 26.08 9/21/07 27.48 99.83%
SEPR 29.86 27.14 19.96 9/8/07 28.74 0.14%
SHLD 146.48 132.88 126.28 9/17/07 145.61 90.59%
SIAL 47.83 44.14 48.73 9/21/07 44.75 72.15%
SIRI 2.95 2.62 2.60 9/13/07 2.84 0.04%
SNDK 55.13 48.52 55.97 9/13/07 53.54 90.53%
SPLS 24.19 21.82 23.93 9/21/07 23.59 99.95%
Java 5.35 4.76 4.47 9/17/07 5.17 0.00%
SYMC 19.85 17.39 19.12 9/21/07 18.66 99.99%
TEVA 44.02 39.87 42.89 9/21/07 42.43 88.16%
TLAB 10.71 9.45 10.67 9/17/07 10.25 99.92%
UAUA 47.00 40.50 37.35 9/13/07 45.31 0.02%
VMED 24.56 21.81 20.13 9/13/07 23.7 95.00%
VRSN 32.88 29.45 32.91 9/17/07 31.86 100.00%
VRTX 38.68 33.66 35.28 9/13/07 37.66 0.02%
WFMI 47.53 41.70 48.85 9/13/07 45.79 55.81%
WYNN 125.38 111.16 114.15 9/13/07 120.75 0.00%
XLNX 26.18 23.44 26.17 9/17/07 25.48 99.99%
XMSR 12.53 10.67 10.13 9/13/07 11.89 0.00%
XRAY 40.26 36.47 39.32 9/21/07 39 100.00%
YHOO 23.69 21.35 21.72 9/13/07 22.55 16.16%
100%= Buy
0%= Sell
Symbol Sell Buy Strike Strike Expiry Close Trend 5 Days Notes
AAPL 133.72 119.91 136.51 9/13/07 134.08 100.00%
ADBE 42.98 38.47 42.16 9/21/07 42.25 100.00%
ADSK 46.54 41.50 47.52 9/17/07 45.14 99.78%
AKAM 33.82 30.50 20.96 9/8/07 32.47 0.30%
ALTR 23.93 21.47 24.57 9/17/07 23.46 100.00%
AMAT 21.11 19.12 21.97 9/17/07 20.71 100.00%
AMGN 51.13 46.22 45.62 9/17/07 50.19 45.31%
AMLN 50.86 45.04 53.47 9/17/07 48.45 74.39%
AMZN 83.99 75.10 84.62 9/8/07 79.05 100.00%
APOL 60.83 53.45 59.59 9/13/07 58.87 96.38%
ATVI 19.51 17.23 19.90 9/17/07 18.88 95.94%
BBBY 34.13 31.24 32.60 9/17/07 34.57 95.58%
BEAS 12.42 11.00 12.32 9/13/07 11.91 97.58%
BIIB 65.06 59.16 64.08 9/17/07 62.86 99.88%
BMET 49.32 43.84 45.89 10/28/07 45.88 51.88%
BRCM 34.40 30.08 31.55 9/17/07 32.84 23.83%
CDNS 22.59 20.34 21.76 9/21/07 21.36 99.19%
CDWC 89.86 80.98 86.37 9/17/07 85.84 100.00%
CELG 63.41 56.47 62.66 9/17/07 61.8 99.43%
CEPH 76.59 69.41 75.63 9/17/07 73.34 100.00%
CHKP 23.97 21.70 24.03 9/17/07 23.36 100.00%
CHRW 50.39 44.81 50.57 9/13/07 48.77 100.00%
CKFR 48.36 43.05 52.11 9/13/07 46 6.34%
CMCSA 27.06 24.41 25.94 9/21/07 25.73 99.99%
COST 63.77 58.26 64.34 9/21/07 61.31 56.53%
CSCO 31.83 28.96 31.95 9/17/07 31 100.00%
CTAS 36.93 33.81 36.71 9/21/07 35.93 100.00%
CTSH 73.49 65.49 67.14 9/17/07 72.1 7.95%
CTXS 38.12 33.06 36.82 9/17/07 35.71 22.65%
DELL 29.18 26.02 27.85 9/21/07 27.86 100.00%
DISCA 24.96 22.94 25.31 9/13/07 24.77 100.00%
DISH 42.61 38.93 42.09 9/17/07 41.68 100.00%
EBAY 34.82 31.11 36.88 9/17/07 33.45 100.00%
ERIC 36.78 33.40 37.08 9/17/07 36.42 99.94%
ERTS 54.31 48.46 49.59 9/17/07 52.36 20.72%
ESRX 56.81 49.94 56.05 9/17/07 53.45 96.19%
EXPD 45.95 40.42 49.87 9/17/07 44.52 42.87%
EXPE 30.66 27.68 30.98 9/13/07 29.11 100.00%
FAST 46.39 42.01 49.71 9/13/07 45.65 100.00%
FISV 49.94 45.23 49.35 9/21/07 46.63 100.00%
FLEX 11.26 10.24 10.64 9/17/07 11.18 16.53% Sell
GENZ 62.33 56.27 56.37 9/21/07 60.61 96.24%
GILD 38.67 34.61 38.10 9/21/07 36.05 99.95%
GOOG 542.42 486.38 521.30 9/21/07 512.88 100.00%
GRMN 102.78 90.46 115.00 9/13/07 100.96 83.61%
IACI 29.03 25.96 23.50 9/21/07 27.32 55.03%
INFY 47.08 42.88 42.83 9/13/07 47 15.42% Sell
INTC 25.12 22.82 25.05 9/17/07 25.09 100.00%
INTU 27.73 25.24 28.81 9/13/07 27.12 88.58%
ISRG 227.94 205.95 218.87 9/8/07 215.58 100.00%
JNPR 34.19 30.44 34.92 9/13/07 32.61 98.10%
JOYG 48.15 41.26 49.58 9/13/07 42.93 99.97%
KLAC 59.66 53.70 61.19 9/17/07 58.2 100.00%
LAMR 54.36 49.68 54.75 9/17/07 53.03 99.57%
LBTYA 41.87 38.29 41.45 9/21/07 39.55 100.00%
LINTA 19.54 17.62 16.48 9/17/07 18.95 95.97%
LLTC 36.09 32.15 34.87 9/17/07 34.12 100.00%
LOGI 27.49 24.43 24.95 9/17/07 26.76 60.19%
LRCX 55.88 48.95 55.24 9/17/07 53.82 98.75%
LVLT 5.18 4.50 4.38 9/13/07 4.94 2.23%
MCHP 38.61 35.08 39.08 9/17/07 37.75 100.00%
MICC 84.59 73.78 67.60 9/13/07 82.62 79.65%
MNST 34.82 30.76 30.18 9/13/07 34.15 0.00%
MRVL 16.46 14.47 14.81 9/13/07 16.25 0.62%
MSFT 29.50 27.37 28.84 9/21/07 28.59 99.81%
MXIM 31.00 27.69 31.42 9/17/07 30.05 99.95%
NIHD 78.67 71.25 78.90 9/13/07 76.16 99.85%
NTAP 29.49 26.98 19.97 9/8/07 28.39 0.00%
NVDA 49.23 43.33 50.25 9/13/07 48.96 62.61%
ORCL 20.77 18.87 20.16 9/21/07 20.13 100.00%
PAYX 46.27 42.23 47.26 9/21/07 44.46 82.04%
PCAR 83.74 75.88 85.95 9/13/07 82.96 100.00%
PDCO 38.78 34.99 39.14 9/17/07 36.77 88.75%
PETM 34.70 31.43 34.86 9/17/07 33.96 100.00%
PTEN 22.13 19.44 22.12 9/17/07 21.52 97.08%
QCOM 39.78 35.46 38.80 9/17/07 38.92 100.00%
RIMM 86.33 77.57 86.25 9/8/07 81.82 79.66%
ROST 27.99 25.12 27.79 9/17/07 27.12 98.40%
RYAAY 41.51 37.13 35.75 9/13/07 40.34 0.01%
SBUX 28.98 25.56 26.08 9/21/07 27.48 99.83%
SEPR 29.86 27.14 19.96 9/8/07 28.74 0.14%
SHLD 146.48 132.88 126.28 9/17/07 145.61 90.59%
SIAL 47.83 44.14 48.73 9/21/07 44.75 72.15%
SIRI 2.95 2.62 2.60 9/13/07 2.84 0.04%
SNDK 55.13 48.52 55.97 9/13/07 53.54 90.53%
SPLS 24.19 21.82 23.93 9/21/07 23.59 99.95%
Java 5.35 4.76 4.47 9/17/07 5.17 0.00%
SYMC 19.85 17.39 19.12 9/21/07 18.66 99.99%
TEVA 44.02 39.87 42.89 9/21/07 42.43 88.16%
TLAB 10.71 9.45 10.67 9/17/07 10.25 99.92%
UAUA 47.00 40.50 37.35 9/13/07 45.31 0.02%
VMED 24.56 21.81 20.13 9/13/07 23.7 95.00%
VRSN 32.88 29.45 32.91 9/17/07 31.86 100.00%
VRTX 38.68 33.66 35.28 9/13/07 37.66 0.02%
WFMI 47.53 41.70 48.85 9/13/07 45.79 55.81%
WYNN 125.38 111.16 114.15 9/13/07 120.75 0.00%
XLNX 26.18 23.44 26.17 9/17/07 25.48 99.99%
XMSR 12.53 10.67 10.13 9/13/07 11.89 0.00%
XRAY 40.26 36.47 39.32 9/21/07 39 100.00%
YHOO 23.69 21.35 21.72 9/13/07 22.55 16.16%
Quote from Flashboy:
I agree Jack.
I'm so programmed now that I find myself becoming immobilzed when time to put on a trade that isn't countertrend. I think this was instilled in me from all the books I've read in the beginning that concentrated mostly on trading reversals
So come up with a solid method of trading reversals, whats so hard about that. I've made almost all of my money on breakouts and pullbacks, but Toni Hansen for example, has made almost all of hers on reversals. To each his/her own, do what feels natural to you and make it work. Just because someone tells you a random/nonrandom trend is your friend does not make it so. Again, do what feels right to you and develop your methodology/philosophy towards the market with in that framework. Your only sickness is in continueing to think you have to do it one way, when there are as many ways to do it as there are traders doing it. You think they all follow the trend? Hardly. As for is there a trend at any point in time in the market, of course there is..there are three types of trends, up, down, sideways and they are all at work at all times in all timeframes, but knowing the past is not knowing the future.
Have you tried mechanical strategy? It will take time but if you have a decent mechanical rule based strategy it will keep you afloat despite yourself until you really learn to trade it.
Quote from Flashboy:
I've been losing at this game for years by fighting the trend and trading emotionally.
I decided to start following the trend. Only take trades with it and I just cannot do it. I've had 3 opportunities to get short this morning and keep talking myself out of it cause I'm looking for the reversal.
I think it's a sickness
Wow. Hey listen. I think you are on the verge of a MAJOR break thru. That is a profound realisation about oneself.
Your deffinetly on your way!
Believe it or not I say that to myself all the time.Quote from Baron Von Espy:
What the hell is so tough about going with the flow, you guys over analyze this business and take yourselves out of the game mentally, and that goes for all the "helpful" advice as well
Just use your reversal skills to catch the retracements in a trend, it aint rocket surgery
This is not that hard. but there's something hardwired or something inside this brain of mine that makes it difficult. That's what I'm trying to fight past.
And the sad part is I'm always looking for reversals. when I do hit one I'm programmed to cash out after gaining a point or so in the ER instaed of riding the new trend I jumped on early.