The government is handing out cash like candy. So no painful lessons will be learnt while they continue to do this. In fact the opposite bad habits are being re enforced: There is no need to save money in the good times.
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I believe the era of mass consumption is over. The world will change now
- Thread starter hafez50
- Start date
The government is handing out cash like candy. So no painful lessons will be learnt while they continue to do this. In fact the opposite bad habits are being re enforced: There is no need to save money in the good times.
Have you been around 2000 and 2008? Not even close.
We're still at the front end of this thing. I hope you are right, one or two years from now.
I believe this has been such a shock to the world its changed everyone's perspective of whats important . I believe we'll be entering a long age of less debt and less consumption .Who's going to go cruising? People will fly less. People will travel abroad less . Just a very small change in consumption will have a huge affect on co's. Going forward the valuation of the mkt's will be less. We didn't learn our lessons in 2000 or 2008. But we'll learn it now. The gov't will be choking on debt now and we could be entering a Japan type situation of almost no growth . We continued to party like it was 1999 for the last 11 yrs . Reality will be a hard pill to swallow.
are you serious ? The perspective of those who pour corona beer down the sink will change ? Nothing will change for them, they can't handle the change psychologically. No, they won't fly less or cruise less. What's the purpose of living for them then ? There is no lesson to take here because the cost of this lesson would be a systemic error everywhere. So, the idea is to be and continue to be all in. There is no such a thing as a bailout with printed money. It's only the belief that printed money has an effect is what is keeping the system afload, for now. It'll change when the belief changes.
Entering into a Japan style situation because of debt ? Dude, this has nothing to do with debt. Everyone will EVENTUALLY enter Japan style because Japan is an example of economic matureness. Supply has met demand in every aspect so there is no growth because there isn't anyone anymore you can make an excess product to sell to. It's called economic matureness.
Will it happen in the near future ? Probably not, because of the technological innovation. There's still so much to be done there and the US is leading in tech.
are you serious ? The perspective of those who pour corona beer down the sink will change ? Nothing will change for them, they can't handle the change psychologically. No, they won't fly less or cruise less. What's the purpose of living for them then ? There is no lesson to take here because the cost of this lesson would be a systemic error everywhere. So, the idea is to be and continue to be all in. There is no such a thing as a bailout with printed money. It's only the belief that printed money has an effect is what is keeping the system afload, for now. It'll change when the belief changes.
Entering into a Japan style situation because of debt ? Dude, this has nothing to do with debt. Everyone will EVENTUALLY enter Japan style because Japan is an example of economic matureness. Supply has met demand in every aspect so there is no growth because there isn't anyone anymore you can make an excess product to sell to. It's called economic matureness.
Will it happen in the near future ? Probably not, because of the technological innovation. There's still so much to be done there and the US is leading in tech.
He posted similar themes in the year 2013; anyone who listened to him then missed out on 6+ pretty good years being long US equities. I think this is one of the biggest fallacies in the trading world, that guys who trade short term time intervals ( and some may work in isolation ) have any idea at all on long term trends/forecasts and what stock markets will do. They think they know, arrogantly broadcast their opinions, yet ignore huge mistakes they made doing the same that lasted for years. Short the SPX was the most popular trade on here from 2009-2014; in reality it was one of the consistently worst trades anyone could make, but the gang was convinced they were always on the cusp of being right and refused any news or data that added any doubt to their theories. The echo chamber effect was amazing.
When this year's correction started, there was a group of posters insisting we were going to 1500 on the SPX and some said more like 800-900. There wasn't a very realistic case to predict those levels yet some people insisted that was where we were going in short order. You'd think 2008/2009 was a close enough event to persuade anyone the folly in this kind of doomsday thinking. Of course, that requires someone to understand that the 2008/2009 crash was generational and way overdone due to fear.