I am up 19.77% YTD and still don't know what my edge is!

T

tonyf

Serious post. I have been killing it for many years in a row. Someone on reddit asked very nicely what my edge was. I actually have no clue. I have none whatsoever in the classical or statistical sense.
As I thought very hard about this question (and not wanting to sound like an obnoxious pompous prick) I replied that I thought my edge was simply being very disciplined.

I then mentioned a near monopoly asset with a 2-5x run-rate FCF and 30%+ ROIC that I have just bought.

Waiting very patiently for the right opportunity to arise where the odds of winning outweigh loss by a very big factor.

Does discipline count as an edge?
 
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tonyf said:
Serious post. I have been killing it for many years in a row. Someone on reddit asked very nicely what my edge was. I actually have no clue. I have none whatsoever in the classical or statistical sense.
As I thought very hard about this question (and not wanting to sound like an obnoxious pompous prick) I replied that I thought my edge was simply being very disciplined.

I then mentioned a near monopoly asset are 2-5x run-rate FCF and 30%+ ROIC that I have just bought.

Waiting very patiently for the right opportunity to arise where the odds of winning outweigh loss by a very big factor.

Does discipline count as an edge?
More...

BTFD at the right time is an edge.
 
i've had long months/years stretches where my profit curve was steady up day after day after day even parabolic but the whole time i knew what i was doing was incomplete and lacking in the career making sense, so i never got excited about it..

sure enough it ended in a disastrous fashion.

just give it time.

your shit really needs to be "on point" if you're flipping stocks everyday.
 
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tonyf said:
Does discipline count as an edge?
More...

Your discipline may be an edge over other market players*, but not over the market. We retail screen jockeys don't really have any edge (but it adds to confidence when we think we do.)

Real edge is like Nancy Peolosi and husband buying lots of semiconductor stocks knowing (before the public knows) there is legislation pending that would pump tax-payer money into the semiconductor industry. That's an edge!

*unfortunately that won't get you even one gordita at Taco Bell.
 
Scataphagos said:
Your discipline may be an edge over other market players*, but not over the market. We retail screen jockeys don't really have any edge (but it adds to confidence when we think we do.)

Real edge is like Nancy Peolosi and husband buying lots of semiconductor stocks knowing (before the public knows) there is legislation pending that would pump tax-payer money into the semiconductor industry. That's an edge!

*unfortunately that won't get you even one gordita at Taco Bell.
More...

That's insider information.
 
tonyf said:
Serious post. I have been killing it for many years in a row. Someone on reddit asked very nicely what my edge was. I actually have no clue. I have none whatsoever in the classical or statistical sense.
As I thought very hard about this question (and not wanting to sound like an obnoxious pompous prick) I replied that I thought my edge was simply being very disciplined.

I then mentioned a near monopoly asset with a 2-5x run-rate FCF and 30%+ ROIC that I have just bought.

Waiting very patiently for the right opportunity to arise where the odds of winning outweigh loss by a very big factor.

Does discipline count as an edge?
More...
A little more info would be helpful.
What are you trading?
What time frame? How long do you hold a position?

Yes discipline, combined with money management, helps but you have to have an statistical edge. Review your process to try and figure out what you are doing that makes your strategy successful.
 
deaddog said:
A little more info would be helpful.
What are you trading?
What time frame? How long do you hold a position?

Yes discipline, combined with money management, helps but you have to have an statistical edge. Review your process to try and figure out what you are doing that makes your strategy successful.
More...

I arbitrage balance sheets but i am not the only one doing that and I don't think this is an edge by itself
 
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