I am the Greatest at the age of 25

[Spectre2007]

The majority win on a temporary basis, when the idea behind the market brings in pools of money from the masses to inflate that asset, the pools of money interchange among themselves, and the assets get further inflated. On a temporary basis, everyone who is in that asset has registered large paper gains.

Further capital flows dry up, until a fundamental change in the idea behind the market rise overcomes the speculative fervor, and leads to a cascade of selling, where everyone tries to exit through the same door at the same time.

Then the majority end up losing, while the initial group that starts the cascade walkaway with 90% of their gains.

 

[atozcom]

Quote from Spectre2007:

Why do a relative few win in the markets while the majority lose over the longer term.

When do the majority win on a temporary basis?

Why must the majority lose?

The majority do not win or loss. There are two parties in each trade. One must win, the other must loss. 50:50

Each trade is independent of the next trade. Each trade is a new game.

Some people win more often. Some people loss more often.

Some people win big more often. Some people loss big more often.

You either below to the win often group or the loss often group.

 

[Spectre2007]

When open interest plateau's out, is a sign that maximal extraction of the available speculative capital has occurred.

A 'effective cascade' is one where concentrated wealth catalyzes a reaction in the market, and the cascade changes the psychology of the market.

A 'ineffective cascade' are just intermediate term swings in the trend.

 

[Spectre2007]

concentrated wealth can momentarily test the market. Unidirectional orderflows over a short period of time, can shock the market, and start a cascade. Further orderflow is generated by other market participants.

That same concentrated wealth can try to swing the market after further orderflow dries up.

Thus dynamics of the marketplace insure that money over long term becomes concentrated in market players who try to play with the psychology of the masses.

 

[Spectre2007]

95% of price action are just ineffective cascades.

 

[timbo]

Spectre2007,

I'm, not reading this post, but you're sure talking to yourself a lot. Is this hormonal?

 

[TudorJones]

Quote from timbo:

Spectre2007,

I'm, not reading this post, but you're sure talking to yourself a lot. Is this hormonal?

I am talking to him in pvt. I don't really enjoy having to post it here... my posts are sacred.

 

[TudorJones]

Quote from Spectre2007:

Thus dynamics of the marketplace insure that money over long term becomes concentrated in market players who try to play with the psychology of the masses.

Only if nobodies can figure out how to be "market player"

 

[Spectre2007]

sorry.. when I try to put things in writing, it crystalizes thoughts. I will stop posting.

Is there a way to delete all your posts?

 

[timbo]

I hope you understand that we're all in suspense.