I am seriously thinking of shorting oil long term
- Thread starter Sky123987
- Start date
This will get you thinking a lil
http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/may2008/bw20080513_720178.htm?chan=search
http://www.businessweek.com/lifestyle/content/may2008/bw20080513_720178.htm?chan=search
i think that the goldman 144 news was the sign of the top,what ever happened to the oil shortage in '73,gas went from .33 to a buck overnight,and it never went back down,this is the same thing ,they got gas average to 3.60 and it'll be over 3 from now on,i doubt there ever was an oil shortage
Irrational beliefs , irrational trades. Account value kaput.
I caught a nice downdraft on oil on Wednesday, but would not be comfortable shorting oil long term until a definite top is set - why stand in front of a run away train? I'm not superman. I'm with the guy who stated catch the meat in the middle.
MY CONSPIRACY THEORY - These banks and broker were totally screwed when BSC went south. Many of them, and many of the more prestigious, got huge sums of money from Sovereign Wealth Funds (oil money).
Some of their "investments" were almost like flushing money down the toilet. Without the oil money some of these banks / brokers would have failed>> even Goldman would have suffered if the biggest game in town shut down.
So >> perhaps this "payback" in high oil was contrived back then. Oil is up like what, 30% since BSC?. Costs of production hasn't changed that much in years. These are windfall profits for the same oil producers that dumped Billions into our crashing banking system. Refilling their coffers. Won't take long for them to make that money back at these prices.
Somebody's got to help pay that bill. How convenient that every time oil burps GS comes out to defend it - sending it ever higher. GS surely gets business from many of these funds as well. GS sends up oil, GS gets more business. You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours.
Its all rigged I tell you
MY CONSPIRACY THEORY - These banks and broker were totally screwed when BSC went south. Many of them, and many of the more prestigious, got huge sums of money from Sovereign Wealth Funds (oil money).
Some of their "investments" were almost like flushing money down the toilet. Without the oil money some of these banks / brokers would have failed>> even Goldman would have suffered if the biggest game in town shut down.
So >> perhaps this "payback" in high oil was contrived back then. Oil is up like what, 30% since BSC?. Costs of production hasn't changed that much in years. These are windfall profits for the same oil producers that dumped Billions into our crashing banking system. Refilling their coffers. Won't take long for them to make that money back at these prices.
Somebody's got to help pay that bill. How convenient that every time oil burps GS comes out to defend it - sending it ever higher. GS surely gets business from many of these funds as well. GS sends up oil, GS gets more business. You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours.
Its all rigged I tell you
timscott... excellent insight.. i wouldn't call it a conspiracy theory at all.. i think you are right on!
the bubble burst in hindsight, not in foresight
I've got a collar on DUG as a stock accumulation play, not a straight option play. I am hoping it goes down for a while longer, then heads up. I was thinking about doing the same on DIG (opposite of DUG - ultra long oil companies), but the share price is in the 100's.
Yes he did... the new Treasure Secretary.... hmmmm. What did his experience (he was pulled in on the GW's shift) bring to this party ?
Seems strange that so many financial (positive and negative) bubbles are occurring now. Oil up 30 pct, mortgage meltdown (coming to a head) credit card meltdown not really mentioned, all in an election year. Seems like the right time to manufacturer a crisis. Agree that some of these wild swings will end up putting tons of money in the hands of those who lost it. Personally, it seems like a good short, but not until the true reason for the speculative high price of oil is identified. Supply is fine, demand is down, so fundimentals do not justify the price. Did China's demand just skyrocket ? Manipulation is normal, but a bit excessive at the moment.
Seems strange that so many financial (positive and negative) bubbles are occurring now. Oil up 30 pct, mortgage meltdown (coming to a head) credit card meltdown not really mentioned, all in an election year. Seems like the right time to manufacturer a crisis. Agree that some of these wild swings will end up putting tons of money in the hands of those who lost it. Personally, it seems like a good short, but not until the true reason for the speculative high price of oil is identified. Supply is fine, demand is down, so fundimentals do not justify the price. Did China's demand just skyrocket ? Manipulation is normal, but a bit excessive at the moment.
Quote from timscott:
I caught a nice downdraft on oil on Wednesday, but would not be comfortable shorting oil long term until a definite top is set - why stand in front of a run away train? I'm not superman. I'm with the guy who stated catch the meat in the middle.
MY CONSPIRACY THEORY - These banks and broker were totally screwed when BSC went south. Many of them, and many of the more prestigious, got huge sums of money from Sovereign Wealth Funds (oil money).
Some of their "investments" were almost like flushing money down the toilet. Without the oil money some of these banks / brokers would have failed>> even Goldman would have suffered if the biggest game in town shut down.
So >> perhaps this "payback" in high oil was contrived back then. Oil is up like what, 30% since BSC?. Costs of production hasn't changed that much in years. These are windfall profits for the same oil producers that dumped Billions into our crashing banking system. Refilling their coffers. Won't take long for them to make that money back at these prices.
Somebody's got to help pay that bill. How convenient that every time oil burps GS comes out to defend it - sending it ever higher. GS surely gets business from many of these funds as well. GS sends up oil, GS gets more business. You scratch my back, I'll scratch yours.
Its all rigged I tell you