I am seriously thinking of shorting oil long term

S

Sky123987

Historical clues:

1) Back in 2000 I would watch the Nasdaq market soar to higher & higher & higher highs. This market was becoming more and more insanely overpriced. Nasdaq got up to 5000 and crashed so hard. It's 2000 something now.

- I wanted to shoot myself for my shorting it

2) In 2006 ish the real estate market was making higher and higher and higher highs, you know the price of the homes couldn't be afforded by the general public.

- Again I wanted to shoot myself for not taking advantage of this.

Today:
Oil is so insanely priced. and you know Bush is leaving office. I don't it to be 2009 and gas is 1.50 / gallon, having missed another grand opportunity.


Opinions?
 
You got to do what you believe. I think it’s got more room to go up. I feel in the long run it will change are economy even.
 
Bush doesn't have the power to control supply/demand...therefore I really don't think he's responsible for high oil prices. I guarantee if Obama gets in there - unless we start utilizing other sources for our energy needs in a hurry or commence drilling (not likely) - the price will only go higher. Didn't the dems run for Congress in '06 saying they would bring down gas prices? How's that working out? Unfortunately, I think we're in for a continued long-term bull market in the oil sector - especially with Middle East tensions and increased demand. Additionally, trading on "gut instinct" is not always the way to go. I have the same regrets regarding the markets in 2000 - don't trade emotionally...unless you can afford the drawdowns.
 
I am having the same exact same feeling about this. Although I dont believe we will ever see gas drop below $2.50 a gallon somethings gotta give. When the average joe is starting to think about getting in on the crude trade it feels like the top. Could be one of those runaway trains that slaughters the shorts but I am a believer of "dont buy the hype". There is an ultrashort ETF I believe the symbol is DUG, it is an ultrashort where you will earn double the drop on a percentage basis and your downside on the short is limited being that it is an ETF.
 
Quote from sledged:

There is an ultrashort ETF I believe the symbol is DUG, it is an ultrashort where you will earn double the drop on a percentage basis and your downside on the short is limited being that it is an ETF.
More...

I would avoid DUG. It's not a pure play on oil. If you can find the shares, USO is a better play.

T
http://actionpointsta.blogspot.com/
 
Could work though I'd be concerned about Geo-political going forward - the Middle East.

If you really think Oil is going down, why not just go long equities instead? Won't there be a big stock (techs) rally if oil trends down?
 
Im not being a smartass, because im a noob to all of this, but isnt oil is still hitting record highs even though the dollar has strengthened a bit? Doesnt that show that maybe inflation doesnt have AS MUCH to do with high oil prices as we thought? Maybe its simply demand...demand from india, china, etc...maybe oil does drop back a little...but over time how can it go anywhere but up when there is increasing demand without increasing supply?
 
I will not short oil till the dollar gets most of the respect back. It might be few years before that happens though. Here is an article from bloomberg and this is not good news for the US or any Western country.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aLdvaksfuzJs&refer=home

I do not understand why we want democracy in the Mid-East. I'd rather prefer a dictator that is friendly to the Western world like in Saudi Arabia. Can you imagine what would happen to the price of oil if the Saudis hold an election and the right-wing nuts take over, similar to what we are seeing in Iran?
 
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